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Andy Home: The US tariff on copper is draining China's warehouses.
China's refined copper exports surged to records levels in the last year, as the world’s top buyer found themselves in unusual competition with the U.S. CME's U.S. Copper contract continues to command an impressive premium over the London Metal Exchange's (LME) international copper price as the "market prices" in anticipation of possible U.S. Tariffs. The decision was deferred to June of this year. The ripple effect of U.S. metal delivery premiums is now emptying China’s bonded storage zones. China's exports jumped from 698,500 tons to 143,000 in November. This is already a record. The total for November included 57.700 tons of goods headed to the U.S. All were sourced from stocks stored in bonded warehouses located at Chinese ports, such as Shanghai. The lingering threat of tariffs continues to disrupt global trading patterns. CHINA'S BONDED STOCK RAIDED AGAIN Last year, the arbitrage between the CME and LME was so blown out that traders had a unique opportunity to make money by shipping copper to the U.S. CME copper stocks have exploded to 450,000 tonnes, more than LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange combined. LME stocks for U.S. delivery of desired brands, notably Chilean metal, are exhausted. Chinese and Russian copper made up?95% or the registered inventory as of the end of November. Metal that was physically unloaded, but had not been cleared by customs to be delivered to mainland buyers has come back to the forefront of attention. This is the second raid on this bonded inventory. China exported or redirected 120,000 tons (or more) of refined copper from February to July last year when tariffs on imports were a certainty. The tariff trade was stifled by Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on copper, but only on refined copper, in July. Since then, traders have been betting that the tariff threat will only be deferred. The increase in November shipments of goods from Chinese ports to United States is "a testament to the renewed appeal of U.S. deliveries." Plugging the Gaps China's portside copper inventory will also leave to plug any gaps that may have arisen elsewhere. Traders are stripping the supply chain of all brands of metal?that can be delivered in accordance with the CME contract, to ensure an?effortless arbitrage trade. Outbound flows in November included 16,500 tonnes bound for Italy, as well as smaller tons destined for Germany and Sweden. The rush to get products to the U.S. has caused availability to fall and physical prices to rise everywhere else. Aurubis, Europe's largest producer, has increased its premium for sales on term this year from $228 to $315 per ton above the LME base price. Codelco, a Chilean state-owned producer, is charging its European clients $325 per tonne and its Chinese customers $350 per tonne. This reflects the fierce competition between traders for Codelco's brands. China is still the largest copper importer in the world, but the increase in outbound shipments has caused its net pull of units from other countries to decrease by 11% during the first eleven months of 2025. It has also struggled to compete with the U.S. premium brands when it comes CME-deliverable products. China's imports from Chilean metal dropped by 43% on an annual basis between January and November, while those from Peruvian metal declined by 50%. Chinese buyers are increasingly dependent on imports from Russia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which represented 37% and 11% of the total imports during the first 11 months of 2025. SIGNAL CONFUSION In recent years, it's difficult to tell how much copper is stored in China's warehouses. Metals are classified as imports by customs departments, but they only become statistically visible when they're reshipped to another country. In that case, it appears on the export side under a special code. It's obvious that there are fewer imports now than before Trump proposed tariffs in February. The stripping of China’s port stocks shows how the threat of U.S. Tariffs has impacted global copper flows. This is also a problem for assessing the current state of a market where prices are hitting all-time highs. The global exchange inventory was above 800,000 tonnes for the first since 2013 which could dampen the bullish market exuberance. The CME is where copper continues to arrive daily, and this has been the main driver for higher visible inventories. The CME, where copper is still arriving daily, has been the driver of higher visible stocks. The physical supply chain as well as the price signal of inventory are still being distorted by the tectonic movement of copper stocks from Europe to the U.S. As long as Trump's tariff threat causes a CME premium large enough to cover physical shipment costs, the drain on availability elsewhere, including China’s port stocks, could become more acute. Andy Home is an author and columnist. The opinions expressed in this column are Andy Home's. Open Interest (ROI), a data-driven, thought-provoking commentary on the markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X.
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Ukraine and US to revisit land and nuclear plant issues during Wednesday's talks
Volodymyr Zelenskiy, president of Ukraine, said that the U.S.-Ukrainian negotiators would revisit the most problematic issues in the peace talks to end Russia’s war, including the question of the fate of the nuclear power plant occupied by the Russians. Kyiv faces 'U.S. Kyiv is under?U.S. The delegations have gathered in Paris to discuss peace and security assurances for Ukraine, in the event of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. Russia has not been supportive of the U.S.-backed initiative. Zelenskiy announced on X that a third meeting with the U.S. delegation would take place in just two days. He said that he had ordered his team to conduct new talks at the leader level between U.S. allies and European allies. On Wednesday, Zelenskiy’s top adviser hailed “concrete” results in the Paris negotiations and promised Kyiv’s national interests would remain protected. STUMBLING BLOCK Zelenskiy stated on Tuesday that U.S. officials and Ukrainian officials discussed "some ideas" regarding the territorial issue. Steve Witkoff, the White House's special envoy, said that "land options" were discussed on Tuesday. He expressed his hope for a compromise. Kyiv refuses to withdraw from the industrialised Donetsk Region, where Russia has taken large swathes but failed to take it all. Zelenskiy also stated that the U.S. had floated the idea for a free-economic zone in the Donetsk region if Ukraine retreated from the areas it still controls. Zelenskiy said that any compromises made on land would be subject to a referendum by Ukrainians. According to an opinion survey conducted last month, three quarters of Ukrainians were prepared for a deal which would freeze the front line but opposed cession of territory. Zelenskiy, who spoke last month, said that the U.S. also proposed a trilateral operation for Zaporizhzhia, a plant which Moscow will capture in 2022, and connect to its own grid. Zelenskiy said that Kyiv had instead proposed a joint Ukrainian-American usage of the plant. The U.S. would determine how 50% of the produced energy is used. (Writing and Editing by Hugh Lawson, Frances Kerry, and Dan Peleschuk)
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Gold falls on profit-taking and stronger dollar
The gold price fell on Wednesday, as investors took profits after a?month-long rally which saw the yellow metal break records. A slightly stronger dollar also added to the pressure. As of 1138 GMT spot gold fell 1%, to $4,452.97 an ounce. This was after it briefly touched a record high in the previous session. Bullion reached a record-high of $4,549.71 in December. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery?were down by 0.7% to $4,462.70. "The trend is still positive, but some investors are taking profits after the recent rally. The USD has also recovered slightly, which is reducing gold demand, said Carlo Alberto De Casa of Swissquote, an external analyst. Washington appears to be working with Venezuela after capturing Nicolas Maduro. U.S. president?Donald Trump announced a plan on Tuesday to refine and sell 50 million barrels worth of Venezuelan crude oil, which had been blocked by the U.S. The U.S. Dollar hovered at a two-week high making metals priced in greenbacks more expensive to holders of other currencies. Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran stated on Tuesday that the U.S. economy needs aggressive interest rate 'cuts.' Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin added that rate changes would need to be "finely adjusted" to incoming data. Investors are watching out for ADP employment data that is due later today, as well as U.S. Non-farm Payroll data on Friday, to get more clues about monetary policy. Gold is a non-yielding asset that tends to do well in low interest rate environments, and during times of economic or geopolitical uncertainty. Silver spot fell 2.5% to $79.26 an ounce from its all-time high price of $83.62 on December 29. Spot platinum fell 4.8% to $2.327.62 an ounce. This is a decline from the record high of $2.478.50 per ounce reached last Monday. Palladium was down 4.1% at $1,747.54 an ounce. (Reporting and editing by Varun H. K. and Harikrishnan Nair in Bengaluru)
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Stellantis production in Italy will reach a 71-year low by 2025, according to unions
The FIM Cisl trade union said that the production of Stellantis vehicles in Italy fell 20% annually in 2025, to 379.706 cars. This is a new concern for the future health of the Italian auto industry. The government of Prime Minister Giorgia Melons said that in 2023, it wanted Stellantis' Italian auto production to reach 1 million units a year. However, the automaker has continued to shrink. FIM Cisl's?Ferdinando Uliano, who presented the union report, said that in 2025 the production of passenger vehicles, excluding light commercial vehicle, will fall by 24.5% on an annual basis to 213,706 cars, the lowest since 1954. Stellantis, the sole auto manufacturer in Italy, is also home to Fiat, Alfa Romeo and other historic Stellantis brands. The company did not respond to a request for comment. 2025 RESULT - NOT AS BAD AS FEARED Stellantis Italian production has nearly halved since 2023, when it was around 751,000 units. This is due to a weak demand for electric cars in Europe, as well as delays in the release of new models and increased competition from Chinese competitors. The decline in production for 2025, however, was less than originally anticipated. FIM Cisl forecasted a full-year production level of 310,000 units when it released production data in October. Uliano added that the Fiat 500 hybrid city car, launched at the Mirafiori factory in the fourth quarter, and the Jeep Compass SUV in Melfi during the same period helped recover some of the output lost. The union stated that "light commercial vehicles?also made a positive contribution...in the fourth quarter." FIM Cisl stated that the Fiat 500, Jeep Compass and other new models due this year – the DS7 family and?Lancia Gamma - will help to bring this year's production above the 2024 level. The union stated that a return to higher levels in 2023 would depend largely on the production of older models like the Alfa Romeo Giulia, Stelvio and Fiat Panda in plants such as Cassino or Pomigliano. The original 2025 release date for the new Giulia & Stelvio models has been delayed.
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Two Hamas operatives were killed by Israel-backed militia in Gaza, the militia claims
A Palestinian militia with Israeli backing said Wednesday that it had killed two Hamas members in southern Gaza. This was a new challenge to Hamas, after Israel empowered their rivals in areas controlled by the Israeli military. In a press release, the Popular Forces, an armed group known in Egypt as the Popular Forces (PF), claimed to have carried out a raid on Rafah and killed two Hamas militants who refused surrender, while detaining another. The group shared a picture that they said showed one of the men who was killed. Hamas has declined to comment about the claim. It is not independently verifiable. Rafah is located in Israeli territory, according to the terms of a deal between Israel and Hamas signed in October. According to reports, the Popular Forces is the largest group in Israel-controlled territories. It was founded by Yasser Abu Shabab, an anti-Hamas Bedouin leader. Abu Shabab, as the group called it, was killed by a family feud in December. His deputy Ghassan duhine was appointed to replace him. He vowed not to let up on the fight against Hamas. Since the October agreement came into effect, more recruits have been reported by the Popular Forces as well as other groups. The groups' emergence, even though they are small and localised in nature, has increased pressure on the Islamist Hamas. This could complicate efforts for stabilising and unifying a Gaza shattered and divided by two years of conflict. These groups are not popular with the locals, since they are under Israeli control. Hamas continues to control thousands of men in Gaza despite heavy losses during the war, according to four Hamas source. Israel still controls more than half of Gaza - the areas in which Hamas' enemies operate outside its reach. There is no immediate prospect for further Israeli withdrawals as President Donald Trump's Gaza plan moves slowly. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged Israeli backing for anti-Hamas groups in June, saying Israel had "activated" clans. Israel has not provided any details since then. The Popular Forces deny that Israel has supported them.
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US ETF provider launches first Venezuelan-focused fund following turmoil
The first exchange-traded funds?tracking Venezuelan companies have been approved by a U.S. ETF provider, after the U.S. captured President Nicolas Maduro at the weekend. This sparked an increase in the value of local assets. Teucrium, a Vermont-based company, filed a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for the launch on Teucrium Venezuela exposure ETF. The ETF tracks stocks and depositary receipts from companies classified as Venezuelan, or that derive at least 50% revenue from this South American country. Teucrium has not responded to our request for comment after hours. According to VettaFi, Teucrium manages a total of $518 million in assets, mostly commodities and crypto. The local Bursatil index has risen more than 70% since Monday in dollar terms, adding to the gains made since late-2025. This is on the hope that a post Maduro Venezuela will pave way for potential debt restructurings and investments into its massive oil and mineral reserves. Venezuela, a country rich in natural resources, was under severe sanctions from the U.S. Venezuela defaulted on external debt in 2017 after being under severe?U.S. sanctions. The popularity of ETFs has increased, particularly among retail traders. This is due to the proliferation of low-cost brokerages that do not charge commissions, such as Interactive Brokers and Robinhood. Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru and Shashwat Chanhan; editing by Sriraj Kalluvila
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Norway's Equinor CEO: We do not intend to return to Venezuela
Equinor's CEO said on Wednesday that the company does not have any plans to return to Venezuela after leaving the country at the beginning of this decade. Anders Opedal said on the sidelines a business meeting that "at the moment, it's not an option." "We pulled out of Venezuela to reallocate our capital." The?U.S. is aiming to increase?crude oil output from Venezuela which has the largest oil reserves in the world. Donald Trump became president after U.S. troops seized Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro, the country leader. Equinor invested billions in Venezuela's oil industry during the mid-1990s. They viewed the country as an important part of their operation and identified it as such. However, they subsequently?pulled back after about 25 years. Donald Trump is planning to meet with executives of oil companies late this week in order to discuss ways to revive Venezuela's battered?oil industry, according to three sources with knowledge of the matter. Equinor's Opedal stated that rebuilding Venezuela's industry in order to extract more heavy oil from the country will require huge investments. Nora Buli is reporting, Terje Solsvik and Kirby Donovan are editing.
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Document shows that France is attempting to exempt fertilizers from the EU border carbon tax.
By Kate Abnett BRUSSELS - France wants other governments to support its push to exempt fertilizers from the European Union’s?carbon border levy. It argues that this is necessary to protect the struggling?European Farmers, a draft of a document seen by revealed. The EU's "carbon" border levy came into effect on January 1. It imposes fees for CO2 emissions on the importation of steel, fertilizers and other goods. This is to prevent unfair advantages over products made in Europe where producers are already required to pay their "CO2 emissions". The draft statement circulated by France to the other EU governments calls on?the European Commission temporarily to postpone or to suspend the carbon border fees for fertilisers. The draft statement seen by? stated that "such a 'postponement' would ease tensions within the crop farming sector, and give economic operators the time they need to restore satisfactory fertiliser conditions for the 2026 crop season." In a statement, France said it supports the EU border carbon levy but warned that applying it to fertilizers would increase costs for farmers who are already struggling due to low cereal crop prices as well as higher tariffs on Russian fertilizer imports. It said that "farmers' organizations have warned of severe tensions regarding fertiliser supply for several weeks." A French Agriculture Ministry official stated that "we have high hopes of winning our case". The other countries that would support the statement were not immediately known. The EU's agriculture ministers are expected to discuss this issue on Wednesday at a Brussels meeting. This is part of an EU-sponsored initiative to persuade hesitant member states to sign a controversial free trade agreement with the South American bloc Mercosur. France has always opposed the deal. The EU's carbon border tariff could be reduced for farmers, but it would also hurt Europe's fertiliser producers, who were supposed to benefit from the border tax. This is because they will not be able to compete with cheaper imports coming from countries that have weaker climate regulations. (Reporting and editing by Jan Harvey; Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz; Sibylle De La Hamaide)
Oil prices fall on the prospect of increased Venezuelan production and ample supply outlook
Oil prices dropped on Tuesday, as traders assessed the possibility of increased Venezuelan crude production following the capture by the U.S. of President Nicolas Maduro. This added to expectations that global supplies would be ample this year due to weak demand.
Brent crude futures fell by 0.2% at $61.62 per barrel as of 0103 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude crude dropped 0.3% to $58.15 per barrel.
Ed Meir, Marex analyst, said: "I believe that if even a small part of the Trump playbook comes true, Venezuelan crude production should increase... If it increases, this will put more pressure on a market already oversupplied."
In December, market participants surveyed by?expected oil prices to be pressured in 2026 because of growing supply and weakening demand.
The price pressure is likely to increase now that the U.S. captured Venezuela's leader. This increases the chances of an end to the U.S. oil embargo and more production.
A person with knowledge of the matter said that Donald Trump's administration plans to meet U.S. Oil executives this week in order to discuss increasing Venezuelan oil production.
The oil benchmarks were more than 1% up in the previous session as investors digested the news of Maduro being captured and U.S. remarks about taking over Venezuela.
Maduro has denied all charges of narcotics.
Venezuela is the founding member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. It has the largest oil reserves in the world, at about 303 billion barrels. The oil sector of Venezuela has been declining for a long time due to U.S. sanction and under-investment.
Last year, its average production was 1.1 million barrels of oil per day.
Oil analysts say that Venezuelan production could rise by up to half a million barrels per day in the next two year if political stability is achieved and U.S. investments are made.
Citi stated in a note to clients that "longer term, U.S. Administration's?stated wish to increase Venezuelan oil supplies is likely to give?a?net bearish impulse to market,"
"We continue to believe that OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia will likely cut production to protect $55-60/bbl Brent in the medium term, should surprise the upside."
OPEC+ and its allies agreed at a brief meeting held on Sunday to maintain current output levels. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing in Bengaluru, Anushree Mukerjee from Bengaluru)
(source: Reuters)