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Stocks rise ahead of US jobs report and tariff ruling
Global stocks rose on Friday, ahead of an important U.S. employment report. Investors also awaited the Supreme Court's ruling on whether President Donald Trump’s tariffs were legal. These tariffs shocked markets last year. Geopolitical tensions around the world have pushed up oil prices and defence stocks. They will continue to be on traders' minds when they consider developments in Venezuela and Greenland. The U.S. Supreme Court's possible ruling on tariffs will dominate the conversation on Friday. The reduction of tariffs may impact U.S. revenue, driving Treasury yields up and causing new waves in volatility. Kyle Rodda said that the ruling is a "real wildcard" and any action to lower U.S. Tariffs will also boost the broader market sentiment. Investors believe that stocks will rise if the court reverses existing tariffs. This is especially true for companies who had to absorb large import costs. He added that "a constraint could be the fact that, even if tariffs were ruled illegal, the Trump administration is unlikely to give in and look for other ways to maintain levies." Traders are still hesitant to bet on market events. Around midday, the Stoxx 600 index in Europe was up by 0.6%. The major regional indices are in the positive zone, with the French CAC40 adding 0.9% on the day and the German DAX rising 0.5%. S&P futures EScv1 rose?0.1%. This suggests a modest increase at the opening later. The S&P500.SPX closed flat on Thursday. However, an aerospace and defense index reached a record high. European defence shares also hit a new all-time high. US JOBS REPORT DECK The December U.S. Jobs Report will also be a key focus point, following a series of data releases on the labour market earlier in this week. On the positive side, there's no sign of a recession in this labour market. That's a good thing. There is also no indication of a strong acceleration on the subdued end. Samy Chaar is chief economist at Lombard Odier. He said that this was consistent with an economy growing moderately. There's no sign of overheating or growth above potential. The JOLTS report on hirings and ADP's private sector payrolls released earlier this week showed that employment in the largest economy in the world is slowing down. We want to confirm today the signals we received yesterday from JOLTs, ADP and the claims we got yesterday. "We don't want an upward surprise in the unemployment rate, or job creation," Chaar stated. Right now, the markets expect two rate reductions from the Federal Reserve in this year. This expectation could be reduced if the monthly employment report is strong. A survey by economists estimates that nonfarm payrolls increased by 60,000 jobs last month, after recovering by 64,000 jobs in November. In October, the economy lost 105,000 positions, which is the biggest drop in almost five years. Most of these were federal employees who took deferred-buyouts. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes remained at 4,187%, after increasing 4.5 basis points in the previous day. The dollar index (which measures the U.S. against six other currencies) hovered at a month-high. Scott?Bessent, U.S. Treasury secretary said that he expects Trump to make an announcement soon about who will replace Jerome Powell when the Fed chairman's term expires in?May. Markets are expecting Trump to appoint someone dovish. The oil prices rose on Friday to their highest weekly level since late October. Investors were concerned about the situation in Venezuela, and also worried about supply from Russia, Iraq and Iran. In a post on social media on Friday, Trump announced that he had cancelled the previously anticipated second wave of attacks against Venezuela due to its cooperation. Two sources said that foreign embassies are preparing for a visit next week by representatives of American and European oil companies. Brent futures The price of crude oil in the United States rose by 0.9%, to $62.54 per barrel. However, they are still on track for a gain of nearly 3% over the past week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude The price of a barrel was also up by 0.9%, at $58,29. Reporting by Sophie Kiderlin, London. Ankur Banerjee contributed additional reporting from Singapore. Editing was done by Amanda Cooper and Susan Fenton.
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Brazil's seed collectors fight Amazon deforestation
Restoration projects in Brazil have increased 160% since 2020 Wildfire-fueled deforestation breaks records Restoring soil with seed is a cost-effective alternative By Andre Cabette Fabio Oliveira, a seed collector from Mato Grosso is among the?more that 700 members of the Xingu Seeds Network who are working to recover forests and savannas in this major agricultural state. After the Brazilian government committed to restore 12,000,000 hectares of natural areas (or 30,000,000 acres) by 2030, as part of its climate goals in the 2015 Paris Agreement, forest restoration is now taking hold. This is thanks to the support of civil society, businesses, and increased funding. Data from the World Resources Institute revealed that 2024 will be the worst year ever for the global loss of tropical forests. Brazil accounted for 42%, after having lost 2.82 million acres, mainly due to fires. In the Amazon, wildfires are rarely spontaneous. Most of them are started by land grabbers and farmers. "One day, I went looking for my seeds and, when I arrived, I was shocked to see that there wasn't a single branch. Oliveira said that everything had been ripped apart while she was working in her garden in Nova Xavantina, a city in central Brazil. "We feel so sad because we don't know what you are going to do about it." She said this as she placed the seeds into a machine and pulled a lever in order to break their shells. Alternative to Seed Lining The Xingu Seeds Network is a group of mostly women who come from rural areas, towns, cities and large Indigenous territories. They fight against biodiversity and tree losses in areas where soybean and grain fields and cattle pastures are expanding. In 2007, the network of collectors was formed in response to a request from Indigenous communities of the Xingu River Basin to farmers to save the drying streams in the area. It promotes an alternative method to seedlings called "muvuca" which involves sowing native seeds to give plants that are best adapted to local conditions a chance to flourish. Muvuca, which does not require irrigation, is cheaper than seedlings. Xingu Seeds Network, a group of 27 seed-collecting organizations, has helped to replant 10,800 hectares in forests and savannahs. These initiatives, however, are far from being able to stop the rapid deforestation of the Amazon rainforest and other Brazilian ecosystems. Bruna 'Dayanna Ferreira is the director of Xingu Seeds Network. She said, "In one month my neighbor alone?cutdown what we had restored over ten years." CLIMATE CHANGE BUFFER By restoring natural areas, you can capture carbon and release water vapor, which helps to form clouds, which reflect sunlight and produce rain. Scientists have stated that this buffers global warming effects and prevents rainforests drying out and reaching tipping point, after which they could become savannah like ecosystems. Brazil's restoration of forest, savannahs, and other ecosystems by seedlings or seeds has grown by 160% since 2021. The Brazilian Restoration Observatory, a non-profit organization, reported in December that the area is currently just 204,000 acres, with 19% of it in the Amazon. According to the observatory, areas undergoing natural regeneration - when nature regenerates without human interference - are much larger, totaling more than 19 million hectares. Tropical forests require an average of twenty years to recover 80% of their carbon before they were cleared. In a study from 2021, recovering Amazon?forests are destroyed on average after eight years of regrowth. In November, the government released its National Native Vegetation Recovery Plan, which identified 3.5 millions hectares in forests, savannahs, and other ecosystems that are regrowing on land protected by environmental laws, where they stand a better chance of survival. Thiago Silva, the forest director of the Environment Ministry, said: "Most restoration occurs through secondary forests (naturally regrowing). We need to monitor and protect these areas." FOREST INCENTIVES Ferreira said that, with human-assisted regeneration still gaining momentum, the amount seeds collected by members of the Xingu Seeds Network exceeds the demand for planting. She said that "our capacity to collect seed is much larger than the demand we receive, and this rule is among all seed-collecting network in Brazil." Belote explained that even though natural regrowth can be the fastest way to achieve large-scale recovery on a large scale, promoting restoration through a market could help divert incentives from deforestation. He said: "We must think of large-scale reforestation as a way to earn money... in order to show that it is competitive with deforestation." Since last year, the government has allocated 274 million reais (50 million dollars) to restore 7,980 acres of Indigenous territory and public land that was allotted to smallholder farmers. A part of the investment will be used to plant trees to produce food. This includes acai berries, cocoa and acai berries, both native to Amazon. According to Forests & Finance, this funding pales in contrast to the $207 billion in publicly subsidized credits to agricultural production in Brazil that has driven forest loss over the past decade. On the way to Nova Xavantina, there are towering silos as well as an air-conditioned storage facility that can hold up to 450,000 bags for soybean planting. This is a powerful symbol of the monoculture dominance in the region. The nascent market for restoration is already changing the lives of those who work in it. Oliveira said that her family has built three small homes and bought a car and motorcycle with the money she earned from collecting seeds. She was a housekeeper prior to joining Xingu Seeds Network. Her depression has been helped by her work in the natural world.
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Happy new world order!
Anna Szymanski What Mike Dolan, the ROI team and I are looking forward to reading, watching and listening to this weekend. From the Editor Hello Morning Bid readers! Welcome to the new year and what an eventful week! Donald Trump's renewed talk about "acquiring" Greenland, possibly through payments to its citizens, has also dominated headlines. This geopolitical drama has had limited market impact so far. The S&P 500 ended Thursday essentially flat after only modest movement this week. Yesterday, however, the U.S. Aerospace and Defence Index, as well as European defence shares, reached a new high. When the news of the U.S.-led strike in Caracas broke on Saturday, investors' attention was focused on energy markets. Venezuela is the home of the largest oil reserves in the world, 300 billion barrels. This represents around one fifth of the total global supply. Brent closed below $60 per barrel on Wednesday, as crude prices fell earlier in the week. This was due to expectations that additional oil would be added to a market already oversupplied. Prices have recovered since then. U.S. action in the Caribbean is likely to benefit oil refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast that were built decades earlier to process heavy crude, the type Venezuela exports. Caracas, in fact, has agreed to export as much as $2 billion of Venezuelan crude oil to the U.S. This will largely come at the expense China, which became the primary importer of Venezuelan petroleum after Trump imposed sanctions against the country's oil industry in 2019. It is possible to increase Venezuelan oil production, but it could take many years and cost billions. Even though President Trump claimed that U.S. energy companies would have the chance to revive Venezuela's defunct oil industry it is an offer they might want to reject. There are likely to be many reasons behind America's action in Caracas. However, a little-discussed reason could be that the White House is concerned about the declining global prominence of "the petrodollar", a tool which has helped the U.S. maintain dominance in global finance for years. Trump's actions and words this week may have investors taking more seriously the White House national security strategy that was released last year. This week, the markets received some of the most recent "clean" U.S. employment data since the government shutdown in the fall. However, the picture painted was far from clear. JOLTS showed that U.S. employment fell to a 14 month low in November, while hiring was sluggish. ADP's National Employment Report noted that private employment rose by 41,000 last month, after falling by 29,000 jobs in November. Friday, the non-farm payrolls for December will provide the clearest picture of the U.S. labour market. The December non-farm payrolls are expected to show that the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.5%, down from 4.6%. Federal Reserve is unlikely to be influenced by these data, but the policymaking body will still consider the future direction of interest rates. The Supreme Court's ruling today on the legality President Donald Trump’s global tariffs could be the most important news for the markets on Friday. Metals news today revealed that Rio Tinto and Glencore are reportedly in talks to merge. This could result in the world's biggest mining company, with a combined value of over $207 billion. Open Interest has more news on commodities and markets. Open Interest has more commodities and markets news. Find out why China is in a strange competition with the U.S. over spare copper, or what could spoil Wall Street's celebration in 2026. Check out the reading, listening, and watching suggestions from the ROI Team as we enter the weekend. Please contact me at This weekend we read... JAMIE MCGEEVER. China, Russia, Iran or any of 60 conflicts raging across the globe (the most since World War II) will not be the biggest source of instability in the world. The United States will be responsible." GAVIN Maguire, ROI - Global Energy Transition columnist: Michael Cembalest's incisive study of Venezuela's oil and its ability to supplement US refinery capacity in heavy and medium crude grades is a fascinating read. Andy HOME, ROI Metals columnist: The analysis by Prima Sidera of European strategic autonomy in defense sectors is timely given Trump's demand for European countries to spend more. RON BOUSSO is the ROI Energy columnist. Daniel Yergin’s The Prize provides a definitive history of the oil business. This week I pulled the classic from my shelf to remind myself of how oil was the driving force behind the foreign policies of the world's major powers during the 20th century. Check out the book's YouTube video for more great visuals. We are listening to... ANNA SZYMANSKI. ROI Editor-in Charge: Listen to Ron Bousso, ROI's Director of Research and Development, discuss the impact of U.S. action in Venezuela on?energy markets. We're watching... JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Finance columnist: New Yorker writer Jonathan Blitzer appeared on the Ezra Klein Podcast to discuss the regional implications and global impact of U.S. president Donald Trump's deposition of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Sign up for the newsletter to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email. Subscribe to the Morning Bid newsletter . ROI can be found on the Website You can also follow us on You can find us on LinkedIn. The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent the views of News. News is committed to the Trust Principles and a commitment to independence, integrity, and neutrality. Sign up for the newsletter to receive Morning Bid every morning in your email. Subscribe to the Morning Bid newsletter Website You can find us on LinkedIn.
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Copper prices rise as bets are placed on future demand.
The copper price rose on Friday as investors renewed their bets that future demand will increase. Aluminium prices also reached their highest level since April 2022. Benchmark three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.8% by 1107 GMT to $12,943 per metric ton. Due to fears about tightening supply and bets on future surges in demand due to the AI boom and the energy transition, this metal used for power and construction hit a new record high of $12,387.50. Rio Tinto, a global mining company, is in the early stages of talks with Glencore to create the largest mining firm in the world, valued at nearly $207 billion. This follows the pending merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources to create an industry heavyweight focused on copper. Copper's sharp rise has forced prices into uncharted territory, making it difficult for traders to determine resistance and support levels. This momentum is a positive from a technical standpoint, according to Dan Smith, managing Director at Commodity Market Analytics. Smith said that two stimulus packages, introduced by China, the world's largest metals consumer at the end of 2025, are supporting broader sentiments and giving copper and other base metals an excellent start to the new year. The measures include a?allocation? of $8.9bn for a consumer good trade-in scheme in 2026, and investment plans involving two large construction projects with $42bn central budget funding. Aluminium was the only other LME metal to show a gain of 1.8%, at $3,145.50, after reaching $3,148.5, its highest level since April 2022. Zinc rose 0.4% to $3147, while lead gained 0.8% at $2,043. Tin climbed 2.3% at $44,650, and nickel was up by 2.2% to $17,530. (Reporting and editing by Venkatraman & Kirby Donovan; Polina Devitt)
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Meta signs nuclear power agreements With Three Companies
Meta Platforms announced on Friday that it had signed 20-year contracts to buy power from Vistra nuclear reactors in the heartland of America and develop projects with two companies looking to build small modular units. Vistra shares rose 8%, while Oklo's surged by nearly 20% in premarket trading. Meta and other Big Tech firms want to ensure long-term power supplies, as artificial intelligence (AI) and data centres increase U.S. electricity demand for the first two decades. In a 'blog, the company announced that it would purchase electricity from Vistra’s Perry and Davis-Besse plant in Ohio as well as Beaver Valley Plant in Pennsylvania. Meta said the deal would help finance expansion of the Ohio plants. The plants are currently licensed to run until at least 2036, with two reactors in Beaver Valley being licensed until 2047. Meta will help to develop small modular reactors, which are being planned by Oklo & TerraPower. TerraPower is backed up by Bill Gates. Supporters of SMR say that the reactors can be manufactured in factories rather than on-site, saving costs. Critics claim they will struggle with economies of scale comparable to large reactors. The U.S. has no commercial SMRs yet, and these plants will need permits. Joel Kaplan, Meta’s chief global affairs office, said that the plans, along with the agreement made last year with Constellation to keep an Illinois reactor operational for 20 years, will make Meta "one of the largest corporate purchasers in American history of nuclear energy." Meta stated that the agreements would provide up to 6.6 gigawatts by 2035. A typical nuclear power station is about 1 GW in size. Meta asked nuclear power developers in 2024 for interest in 1 to 4 gigawatts. Meta will fund the development of TerraPower's two reactors that can generate 690 megawatts by 2032. Meta will also receive energy rights from up to six TerraPower reactors before 2035. Chris Levesque, TerraPower's President and CEO, said that the agreement would support a rapid deployment of nuclear reactors. Meta has said that its partnership with Oklo could help Ohio develop up to 1,2 GW of electricity as early as 2030. Jacob DeWitte is Oklo co-founder, CEO and said that the support would help with "early procurement" and "development". (Reporting and editing by Timothy Gardner, Valerie Volcovici, and Cynthia Osterman).
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Malaysian palm oil prices rise for the week due to strong competition and Indonesia's levy plan
Malaysian palm futures declined on Friday due to a 'profit-taking', but they posted a weekly increase based on the strength of rival edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago Exchanges and Indonesia’s plan to increase its palm oil export tax. The benchmark March palm oil contract on the Bursa Derivatives Exchange fell 5?ringgit or 0.12% to 4,038 Ringgit ($992.14) per metric ton as of?closing. The contract rose by 1.18% in the last week. After the recent rally on rumours about Indonesia's levy hike, there are a lot of profit-taking activities going on today. Profit-taking?starts when Dalian close firm draws a selloff on the high of the week, said a Kuala Lumpur based trader. Eniya Listeiani Dewi, an official from the energy ministry, told reporters that Indonesia would likely increase its palm-oil export levy in order to support biodiesel production. She cited a lack of funds. Dalian's palm oil contract rose 0.6%, while the most active soyoil contract grew 0.33%. Prices for soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 0.51%. As palm oil competes to gain a share of the global vegetable oils market, it 'tracks' the price movement of other edible oils. Technical analyst Wang Tao stated that palm oil will likely retest the support level of 4,024 Ringgit per metric ton, since it has failed to break through resistance at 4,074 Ringgit.
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China encourages industrial parks in China to use more green energy on site
China wants industrial parks to use their green power on-site rather than sending it to the grid. This is according to an official document released on Friday. According to the Industry?Plan for Green Industrial Microgrids 2026-2030, released by the state planner, asset, market, and energy regulators, industrial parks with newly installed wind and solar power should use at least 60 percent of the electricity generated on-site, and send no more than 20% into the grid. Green industrial microgrids are defined in the document as including?renewable energy generation, waste energy utilization, green hydrogen storage, digitalised energy and carbon management, and battery?storage. According to the document, the policy is intended to reduce emissions, increase the use of renewable energy and boost industrial competition. Analysts predict that in the next few years, more areas of China will experience high curtailment rates. Grid managers limit the amount of electricity entering the network to maintain a balance or because grid infrastructure is limited. The policy document stated that industrial?microgrids must support demand response. This is where users reduce their consumption during peak times to lessen the load on the grid. The report also called on heavy industry to use waste heat for energy generation or to recycle it. It also told manufacturers to integrate digitalised energy management and carbon management systems. (Reporting and editing by Toby Chopra; Colleen howe)
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Meta signs nuclear power agreements With Three Companies
Meta Platforms announced on Friday that it had signed 20-year contracts to purchase power from three Vistra nuclear reactors in the heartland of the U.S. and to develop projects with two companies wishing to build small modular units. Meta and other Big Tech firms want to ensure long-term power supplies, as artificial intelligence (AI) and data centres increase U.S. electricity demand for the first two decades. In a blog, the company announced that it would purchase power from Vistra’s Perry and Davis-Besse plant in Ohio?and Beaver Valley Plant in Pennsylvania. Meta said that the deal would help finance expansion of the Ohio plants as well as?lengthening the lifespan of plants which are licensed until at least 2036, with one of the two reactors at Beaver Valley being licensed until 2047. Meta will help to develop small modular reactors by Oklo, TerraPower and Bill Gates' TerraPower. SMR supporters say that the reactors can be built in factories instead of on-site, which will save costs. Critics claim they will have difficulty achieving economies of scale comparable to those achieved by current large reactors. The U.S. has no commercial SMRs yet, and these plants will need permits. Joel Kaplan is Meta's chief global affairs official. He said that the plans, along with the agreement made last year with Constellation, to keep a Illinois reactor operational for 20 years, "will make Meta one of the largest corporate purchasers in American history of nuclear energy." Meta stated that the agreements would provide nuclear power up to 6.6 gigawatts by 2035. A typical nuclear power station is around 1 GW in size. In 2024, Meta sought to solicit interest from developers of nuclear power for up to 4 gigawatts. Meta will fund TerraPower to develop?two reactors that can generate up to 690 Megawatts of electricity as early as?2032. Meta will also receive energy rights from up to six TerraPower reactors before 2035. TerraPower CEO Chris Levesque stated that the agreement would support rapid deployment. Meta has said that its partnership with Oklo could help Ohio develop up to 1,2 GW of electricity as early as 2030. Jacob DeWitte is Oklo co-founder, CEO and said that the support would help with "early procurement" and development. (Reporting and editing by Timothy Gardner, Valerie Volcovici, and Cynthia Osterman).
Chevron is competing with rivals to sell Venezuelan oil, according to sources
Sources in the industry said that U.S. oil giant Chevron, global trading house Vitol, and other oil traders and producers are vying for deals to export Venezuelan crude as part of their discussions with U.S. officials about licenses to do business with Venezuela. Sources in the industry said that the companies were lobbying hard to get a piece of future oil exports by the South American producer following the capture of Nicolas Maduro by the U.S. Sources told us on Wednesday that Chevron is the only foreign company currently authorized to export Venezuelan crude oil to the U.S. The U.S. imposed restrictions on the company last year. Chevron now wants Washington's permission to extend its license to operate in Venezuela. Sources said that as part of its request, Chevron is proposing an increase in crude exports through?its joint-ventures to be sold to third parties and to also trade at least a small portion of PDVSA, the state-run oil company's output.
Chevron and PDVSA had signed a large deal in late 2022 that allowed them to expand their business in Venezuela. This enabled Chevron to collect billions of dollars in debt. License restrictions, however, have reduced its Venezuelan crude exports to 100,000 bpd by December. Sources requested anonymity to discuss confidential information. Chevron and PDVSA didn't immediately respond to requests for comments. PDVSA said on Wednesday that the negotiations for the oil supply agreement with the U.S. are progressing.
The White House did not immediately respond to our request for comment. Sources told?that Swiss commodities traders Vitol and Trafigura will be at the White House on Friday to discuss marketing Venezuelan oil. Sources told?Earlier on Thursday that Vitol had received a preliminary special license from the U.S. government to begin negotiations for 18 months regarding Venezuelan oil. Vitol received a special preliminary license from the U.S. Government to begin negotiations for 18-months to import and export Venezuelan oil. Shariq Khan reported from New York, Marianna Pararaga reported from Houston and Jarrett Renshaw contributed additional reporting.
(source: Reuters)