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Oil prices drop after Trump's Iran remarks, but shares and bonds remain steady

The global stock and bond market stabilized on Tuesday after U.S. president Donald Trump postponed an attack against Iran and stated that there was a high chance of a nuclear agreement, which sent oil prices lower.

Trump announced on Monday that he has halted the?planned? resumption? of attacks against Iran in order to give time to negotiate a peace deal. This comes after Tehran sent Washington a new proposal for peace.

The U.S. has a "very high chance" of reaching an agreement with Iran that would prevent Tehran from getting a nuclear bomb.

Investors were cautious after a drone strike on the weekend in the United Arab Emirates had roiled them in the previous session.

Early trading in Europe saw stocks rise 0.7%, regaining ground lost on Friday. They had fallen 1.5% after bond market volatility spread to equity markets.

The futures for the U.S. S&P 500 index were not much changed on Monday after the index had flattened?after a 1.2% decline on Friday.

"We have seen a lot back and forth," said Fabien Yips, a IG analyst.

"Until we see real action (in the Strait of Hormuz) whereby ships pass through safely and see a material resurgence in traffic through the Strait, the market is ignoring the comments from both sides."

Brent crude futures dropped 1.4% to $105.50 per barrel, while U.S. crude remained flat at $108.70 a barrel. Both were?more that 50% higher than their pre-war level.

The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fell more than 1% while Japan's Nikkei Index eased by 0.4%.

Earnings from Nvidia, the world's largest chipmaker, are expected to be released on Wednesday. Expectations for this company are sky-high.

Richard Reyle is chief investment officer of Questar Capital Partners. He said that "Nvidia has become the market's shorthand term for all things AI. This market's gains over the last few years have been driven largely by AI."

BOND SELLOFF ABITES

The drop in oil prices helped to stop a massive sell-off of global bonds on Monday, but concerns remain over any inflationary shock that may result from the Iran War.

The yields on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note have fallen from a high of more than 4.63% to 4.597%, a drop of over one year.

British government bond yields dropped the most, followed by those of European and Japanese bonds. Prices and yields are inversely related.

As they met in Paris, the G7 Finance Ministers expressed their concern about rising public debt and volatility on the bond markets.

The markets are pricing in major central bank rate increases this year based on the expectation that policymakers will tighten their policy to combat an inflation resurgence driven by high energy prices for longer.

Florian Ielpo is the head of macro for Lombard Odier Investment Managers.

He said that the micro story was still strong and AI was still acting as a main support for US equity markets. However, "the macro story" is less forgiving, referring to rising oil prices, bond yields, and other factors.

The?dollar, which has been a safe-haven since the start of the war, was up by 0.1% to 159.04yen. This puts traders on high alert for any Tokyo intervention in order to support its currency.

The euro fell 0.2% to $1.16. The pound also fell by 0.2%, to $1.34. Rae Wee and Harry Robertson reported from Singapore, and Jamie Freed and Tom Hogue edited the article.

(source: Reuters)