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Bonds from MORNING BID America spoil the AI party

What's important in U.S. and Global Markets Today By Mike Dolan. Editor-at-Large for Finance and Markets

Bond market crunch meets AI boom The bond market is'spooked' again by rising oil prices, inflation and interest rates, as well as the threat of increased government debt and higher interest rate estimates.

The 30-year Treasury bond yields are at their highest level since 2007. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yields are at their highest levels in over a year.

Below, I'll go into more detail. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast. Subscribe to the Morning Bid daily podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

BONDS DISGRACE THE AI PARTY

Bond stress is spreading across the globe as G7 finance chiefs gather in Paris, France on Monday. Japan's long-dated government yields reached record highs Monday. European yields have reached their highest level in the last 15 to 20 year. In Britain, meanwhile, a new political drama is brewing amid brewing challenges against Prime Minister Keir starmer's leadership.

In Europe and Japan, interest rates are likely to rise next month. There is a greater than 50% chance that the Fed will do so by the end of this year. Oil shocks in the Gulf are at the core of inflation and rate hike anxiety. The tensions in the Gulf are once again rising amid new?drone attacks, including one on a nuclear plant in the UAE. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed for all but a small number of tankers. According to Axios, world crude prices rose above $110 per barrel on Monday after U.S. president Donald Trump warned Tehran the "clock was ticking". He also said he would be ready to discuss military options against Iran. The most alarming news is that year-end oil prices have reached over $92/bbl, their highest level in the war. The stock indexes, which had been buoyed by a roaring AI boom, mostly ignored the oil shock. But now, they've been knocked back from their record highs. The major U.S. stock indexes fell sharply on the Friday. Asian shares dropped on Monday, and Wall Street futures dipped before 'the bell. Nvidia’s results this Wednesday will dominate the agenda in the States as they are a major test for the AI market. Walmart and other retailers will provide insight into the U.S. consumers' reaction to the energy crisis. Investors and policymakers will be keen to monitor the impact of high mortgage rates.

Chart of the Day G7 Finance Ministers expressed concern about public debt and the bond market's volatility when they met on Monday in Paris. This was in response to a sell-off in bonds triggered by concerns?over inflation risk from the Iran War.

In the last week, the implied borrowing costs from G7 government bonds that have maturities longer than 10 years reached their highest level in 24 years. The 30-year U.S. Treasury rates also hit their highest levels since the 2007-08 banking crash.

Watch today's events

* U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index for May (10 a.m. EDT)

The G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers will meet in Paris

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(source: Reuters)