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Ukraine launches drones toward Moscow after Russia attacks Ukraine’s Danube Port City
In the early hours of Tuesday morning, a Russian air strike damaged port infrastructure in Ukraine’s?Izmail City. Meanwhile, Russian authorities claimed that they had shot down four drones fired by Ukraine and heading towards Moscow. Izmail is home to the biggest Ukrainian port on the Danube River. It's a strategic location that's often hit. Local officials reported on Telegram that "Port infrastructure in the city Izmail was damaged," adding that almost all aerial attack weapons had been destroyed. "Fortunately,? there were no significant damage or casualties." The Telegram posted showed firefighters battling an blaze at a building whose windows had been blown out. Ihor Terekhov, the mayor of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine, said that two people had been rescued, and another person could still be trapped under rubble, following a Russian drone strike on the city. The peace efforts to end the war that began in 2022 with Russia's invasion of Ukraine are stalled. Both sides have accused the other of regularly attacking?military and civilian targets, as well as energy sources. Both sides deny deliberately targeting civilians. RUSSIA: DRONE ATTACKS Sergei Sobyanin, the Moscow mayor, said via Telegram that 4 drones headed for the capital were downed. He also stated that emergency services have been dispatched. However, he did not provide any further details. This attack follows a major Ukrainian drone strike on Moscow at the weekend. After that, Russia attacked the Ukrainian cities Odesa and Dnipro using missiles and drones. The attacks damaged residential buildings and inflicted injuries on dozens of people. The Kursk operational headquarters announced on Telegram that a woman died in the Russian Kursk region bordering Ukraine and two others were injured by an attack from Ukraine on Monday night. Regional authorities on Telegram reported that drone attacks also targeted the southern Rostov Region of Russia and Yaroslavl to the northeast of Moscow. Mikhail Yevrayev, the governor of Yaroslavl where Russia has oil-refining facilities, warned drivers traveling towards Moscow about drone attacks. Ukraine is trying to deny Russia its?energy revenue. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukrainian President, wrote 'on X over night that Russian refinery capacity had dropped by 10% in the last few months and oil wells were closed. Zelenskiy stated that "(Russian president Vladimir) Putin, has built up a war chest, but it is not enough for him to continue fighting indefinitely." (Reporting from Tokyo by Jekaterina Glubkova; Editing by Edwina gibbs)
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The slide in the Indian rupee will continue without any oil relief, and Asia's FX weakness compounds the pain
The Indian rupee will likely continue to weaken?on Tuesday and could even reach an all-time record low. This is due to high oil prices which have been a drag on the currency for several weeks. The currency is likely to be under pressure due to the weakness of Asian currencies amid low risk appetite and high U.S. rates. The rupee will open between 96.35 and 96.40, traders say, after it settled at 96.3450, where it reached a life-low?of 96.3875 on Monday. "Another Day, Another New High (on Dollar/Rupee). A currency trader from a bank said that for the moment it seems like?the current cycle (of rupee weakening) cannot be stopped. It's obvious that it can't be. He said that a significant shift in the fundamental drivers is needed, whether it's a correction of?oil price, which hasn't yet materialised, or concrete steps taken to boost?dollar flows. The rupee is on a losing streak of seven days, losing 2.2%. It has also hit new lows. Since the Iran War began late in September, it has dropped more than 6%. Brent crude hovered near $110 per barrel during Asian trading. Investors were weighing up whether the U.S. will and Iran reach an agreement to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. president Donald Trump announced that he had paused an attack planned on Iran in order to allow for negotiation, providing "slight relief". The risk appetite remained low, as U.S. equity indices fell and Asian equity markets declined. Weak sentiment affected?Asian currencies. Investors have priced in the possibility that oil prices will'remain higher for longer and fuel inflation. Fuel retailers in Delhi reported that India increased petrol and diesel prices on Tuesday by 0.9 rupees a litre, the second increase of this kind in a single week. (Reporting and editing by Rashmi aich; Nimesh vora)
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China tightens steel capacity controls, causing iron ore to increase losses
Iron ore prices fell on Tuesday, reaching their lowest level in over two weeks. China's new plan to curb the steel industry's overcapacity dampened demand prospects, but a firm near-term consumer base capped losses. Iron ore, the most traded contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange DCE, fell by 0.87% at 0313 GMT to 798.5 Yuan ($117.50), a metric tonne. This was the fourth consecutive session of declines. The price of iron ore fell to its lowest level since April 30 at 796 Yuan during the morning session. By 0303 GMT the benchmark 'June iron ore' on the Singapore Exchange had fallen 0.55% to $107,6 per ton. This was its lowest level since May 4 China announced a more stringent steel capacity swap plan Monday in response to the overcapacity that is affecting mill profitability, and is fueling a growing global 'trade protectionism backlash. For every new tonnage of steel, at least?1.5 tonnes of the old capacity must be removed. Morgan Stanley analysts said that the new, stricter swap policy would help reduce the steel capacity in time and result in more consolidation of the industry on the long-term. Analysts said that the implementation of the plan will determine whether or not the capacity is reduced. According to Mysteel's data, the daily?transaction volume of seaborne iron ore cargoes has more than doubled since Friday, reaching 1.51 million tonnes on Monday. This indicates a persistent buying appetite for this steelmaking ingredient. Coke and other steelmaking materials, such as coking coal, fell by 0.69% and 0.78 percent, respectively. Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have extended losses due to lower raw material costs. Rebar fell by 0.87%. Hot-rolled coils dropped 0.7%. Wire rods declined 0.42%. Stainless steel fell 1.09%.
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India increases fuel prices for the second time in one week
Fuel retailers in Delhi said that India raised the price of 'petrol and diesel' on Tuesday, by about?0.9 rupees (0.0093 cents) per litre. This is its second hike this week, as the government tries to recover losses due to higher crude oil prices. Dealers said that the price of petrol has risen to 98.64 rupies a litre, up from 97.77 rupies. Diesel is now 91.58 rupies a litre. The increase on Tuesday follows India's first rise in four-years last Friday when it increased?petrol prices and diesel by 3 rupees per litre. After the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, the third largest oil importer in the world has raised retail fuel prices. The global oil price?has?spiked up to more than $100 a barrel before easing back a little. The state-run Indian Oil Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corp, and Bharat Petroleum Corp, which control together more than 90% of the network of 103,000 fuel stations in India, tend to set their prices in tandem. $1 = 96.3450 Indian Rupees (Reporting from Mohi?Narayan, in New Delhi; Chris Thomas, in Mexico City. Editing by Clarence Fernandez).
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Tsingshan has asked some Indonesian nickel producers for a reduction in output to allow aluminium to be produced.
Three sources familiar with this matter have confirmed that China's Tsingshan group has asked the 'nickel pig-iron' (NPI), producers in Indonesia's Weda Bay 'industrial park, to reduce output by June, to conserve electricity to produce aluminium. This is a sign of the group's move into the lighter metal, which may be affecting nickel operations. Sources said that Tsingshan sent the request to NPI producers last week, as NPI is a vital feedstock for stainless-steel. The company also prioritised aluminium after the price rally increased margins. Tsingshan owns shares in the power?plant of the industrial park. The move will redirect electricity from the 22 NPI plants located within the area, including some owned by Tsingshan, to the single aluminium plant co-owned by Tsingshan, Xinfa, and others. The three sources refused to give their names because they weren't authorized to speak in public and couldn't confirm the exact extent of the production cuts. The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange has increased by more than 12% since the beginning of the Iran War, which has caused disruptions in shipments of metal through the Strait of Hormuz, and has damaged aluminium plants in the Gulf Region, where close to 9% of world supply is produced. Sources said that the rally had helped to widen margins for aluminium, which were already higher than those of NPI. NPI has a margin of less than 10%. Tsingshan didn't immediately reply to an emailed comment request. POWER BOTTLENECK Tsingshan supplies the Weda Bay Park, which has a capacity of more than 700,000.0 metric tons per year for nickel-in NPI, using captive coal-fired plants, according to a presentation made by Eramet in May, Tsingshan’s partner in PT Weda Bay Nickel. The park is located on Indonesia's Halmahera Island and also hosts the Tsingshan Xinfa Juwan aluminum project with a capacity of 250.000 tons per year. NPI as well as aluminium smelting use large amounts of energy. Tsingshan’s expansion into aluminium has put pressure on its power supply. Captive power additions have lagged behind the pace of the smelter’s development. Rachel Zhang, Morgan Stanley's head of China materials research, said that building a captive plant can take up to two and a half years, while an aluminium smelter takes less than one year. This will limit output below the?nameplate capacities. She said that for Indonesian smelters the delivery time of power equipment has increased to 21 months, up from 18 months, in 2024. Costs have also risen roughly 30%. (Reporting from Dylan Duan in Shanghai, and Lewis Jackson in Beijing. Editing by Kate Mayberry.)
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Oil drops over 2% after Trump announces he will not attack Iran
Oil prices dropped more than 2% on early Asian trading on Tuesday, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he would pause a planned strike on Iran to 'allow for negotiations in order to end the Middle East war. Brent futures for delivery in July fell $3.01 or 2.7% to $109.09 per barrel at 00:01 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude for delivery in June fell $1.38 or 1.3% to $107.28. In the previous session, both benchmarks reached their highest levels since April 30 and May 5, respectively. The June WTI contract expires Tuesday. Meanwhile, the most active contract for July fell by $2.06 or 2% to $102.32 per barrel. Trump stated on Monday that there was a'very good chance' the United States and Iran could come to an agreement to prevent Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, after announcing a pause in the military action for talks. While Trump's signals have eased immediate pressure, fundamental risks remain. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He said that now, the?market will be watching to see if Trump's remarks represent a real shift towards de-escalation. The oil price will be determined by how Iran reacts to recent developments and what is happening on the water as tankers move through the Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. This is a crucial waterway that transports about a fifth of world oil supplies, raising fears of supply disruptions. The Iranian Foreign Ministry's spokesperson Esmaeil baghaei confirmed to CNN on Monday that the U.S. had received the position of Tehran via Pakistan, but did not provide any further details. An anonymous Pakistani official said that Islamabad relayed to the other side a new proposal but noted a slow progress. The semi-official Iranian news agency?Tasnim reported that Washington agreed to waive sanctions against Tehran's oil imports during negotiations. However, a U.S. government official denied this claim. Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, extended by 30 days a waiver of sanctions to allow countries that are "energy vulnerable" to continue purchasing Russian oil. The Energy Department reported that a record 9.9 millions barrels of oil were withdrawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the U.S. last week. This brought the stockpiles to a low of?374million barrels - the lowest level since July 2024. Fatih Birol, the head of International Energy Agency (IEA), said that commercial oil stocks were rapidly falling. Due to the conflict and disruptions to shipping, there was only a limited supply remaining.
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Japan's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter
Data showed that Japan's economy grew by an annualised 2.1% in the first quarter. This was a good sign before the Middle East conflict caused a shock to the energy market. The rise in Japan's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeded the median market expectation of a 1.7% increase and came after a 0.8% increase?in October-December. The economy grew by 0.5% on a quarterly basis compared to the median market expectation of a 0.4% increase. Analysts predict that growth will slow down in the next quarters due to the 'fallout' from the Middle East conflict which has led to a 'unprecedented disruption of global energy supplies. The government's data revealed that private consumption, which makes up more than half the GDP of Japan, increased by 0.3%, as opposed to market expectations for a 0.2% increase. Exports less imports added 0.3 percentage points to the growth. Analysts polled had predicted a contribution of?a 0.2 percent. The data showed that capital expenditures grew by 0.3% between January and March, compared to market expectations of a 0.2% increase. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz as a response to U.S. and Israeli attacks that began on 28 February. Oil prices have soared, fueling fears of supply disruptions. Japan is particularly vulnerable to energy shocks due to its heavy reliance on Middle East oil imports. The rising fuel prices are driving up inflation and impacting corporate profits as well as the broader economy. The Bank of Japan has sent out a series of hawkish messages that have led the markets to assume a high probability of an interest rate hike in June.
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San Diego mosque shooting leaves five dead, including two suspects
Police said that two teenage gunmen opened fire at the Islamic Center of San Diego, California on Monday, killing three men, including a security guard. The police found the suspects dead from apparent self-inflicted wounds. According to San Diego Police chief Scott Wahl, all of the children attending the day school - which is part of the mosque complex in San Diego County - are safe and accounted for. The shooting erupted just before noon PDT (or 1900 GMT) on Wednesday. Wahl confirmed that the FBI had been called in to help with the investigation of the incident. Law enforcement officers from across the country were called to the Islamic Center. They found the bodies of three men who had been shot outside the building. One of them was a security guard, whom Wahl credits with helping prevent more bloodshed. The chief of police said that a short time later, two male teenagers aged 17 and 19 were found dead in a car in the middle of a street. They had apparently shot themselves, he explained. Investigators are still trying to piece together what triggered the shooting, and how violence spread. A landscaper was also shot at in an apparent separate shooting, but police have not said whether or not a connection has been ruled out. The landscaper wasn't injured, Wahl reported. Reporting by Mike Blake, San Diego; Additional reporting and writing by Steve Gorman and Andrew Hay, Los Angeles; Editing and proofreading by Rosalba and Chizu O'Brien.
MORNING BID EUROPE-Markets uneasy as inflation fears take hold
Rae Wee gives us a look at what the European and global markets will be like tomorrow.
The market sentiment was fragile on Tuesday, even after U.S. president Donald Trump said he had?paused an attack against Iran and there were now "very good chances" of achieving a 'deal' limiting Tehran’s nuclear program.
The 'oil' prices fell, but at $110 per barrel they are still more than 50% higher than their previous levels.
Stocks are in a downbeat mood. Asian shares have fallen and U.S. Futures have given up gains made earlier, while European Futures just edged a little higher.
Analysts attribute the drop in South Korea's Kospi index, which was a high-flying index, to profit-taking.
The artificial intelligence darling Nvidia will report its results on Wednesday. Expectations are high for the most valuable company in the world.
The UK employment data will be released on Tuesday.
Investors are becoming more concerned about the possibility of a long-lasting inflationary shock as the yields on sovereign bonds have reached a decade high. This could threaten the spending power of government, businesses, and households.
G7 Finance Ministers met in Paris, France on Monday to discuss the growing concern about public debt and volatility on bond markets. They also sought a common ground for tackling global tensions on economics and coordinating vital raw material supplies.
On Tuesday, the bond selloff in Asia slowed down. U.S. Treasury and Japanese government bond rates are easing but still not far off their historic highs.
The average rate that governments pay for borrowing over 10 years in the G7 nations is now approaching 4%. This was around 3.2% just before the war began in late February.
Data released on Tuesday revealed that Japan's economy grew more than expected during the first quarter of this year, thanks to?solid exports, and consumption. However, the momentum will be severely tested as the full impact of the Iran War energy shock reaches businesses and consumers.
The positive numbers didn't help the yen which was still hovering around 159 dollars per yen. This kept traders alert to any possible intervention by Japanese authorities.
Minutes of the May meeting of Australia's central bank showed that policymakers deemed interest rates restrictive after three hikes in this year. This gave them room to observe how the war played out, despite inflation being expected to rise and economic growth slowing.
The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Tuesday.
- UK employment data (March)
(source: Reuters)