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Asia shares slip, oil prices pile pressure on bonds

Asia share markets fell on Monday, as new drone attacks in Gulf drove up oil prices and bond yields. Meanwhile, the AI boom will be tested this week by the earnings of tech-diva Nvidia.

Saudi Arabia intercepted three drones as U.S. president Donald Trump warned that Iran must "act fast" to reach an agreement.

The Strait of Hormuz, which used to transport 20% of world oil trade, is still closed to all but the smallest of ships as Tehran attempts to formalise control of this waterway.

Capital Economics analysts warned that the closure was draining oil stocks worldwide fast. "Inventories may reach critical levels before the end of June, which could lead to Brent reaching $130-140pb or even higher."

If the strait closes by year's end and oil remains around $150pb in 2027, this would drive inflation near 10% in UK and Euro zone, sending rates back to recent peaks, and lead to a global recession.

Brent crude was up 1.2% to $110.63 per barrel. U.S. crude rose 1.0% to $106.42 per barrel.

G7 Finance Ministers meet in Paris to discuss the Strait?Hormuz, and crucial raw material supplies.

Global bond markets were hammered by fears that energy costs will remain high, and therefore continue to drive inflation.

The yields on U.S. 10-year notes are up to 4.584% after a surge of 23 basis points in the last week. 30-year bonds have risen 18 basis points.

Investors feared that central banks around the world would tighten up to stop an inflationary spiral. A hike by the Federal Reserve this year is seen as a 50% chance.

The minutes of the Fed’s last meeting were released on Wednesday. They should show how much pressure was put on the committee to adopt a neutral position and move away from a bias towards easing.

Japan's Nikkei index eased by 0.4% after falling 2% in the previous week, though this was still from records highs. South Korean stocks dropped 2.1% as the hot market cools a bit after semiconductor demand drove it to record highs.

MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell 0.6%. China's stock markets reached their highest level in over four years last Thursday, but they will need to deal with data on April retail and industrial output in the later session.

AI, RETAIL EARNINGS TO TEST FOR THE BULL RUN

S&P futures dropped 0.4%, while Nasdaq Futures lost 0.5%.

Analysts at Citi note that while Wall Street was boosted by positive earnings, half of it came from special items like tariff add-backs or asset markups. The gains in both profits and overall indexes are also closely correlated.

In a note, Scott Chronert, an analyst at?Chronert & Co. wrote: "We identified 20 stocks that contributed to the majority of index earning upside." "Forward Guidance increases also demonstrate a similar focus."

He added that "Broadening" is necessary for indexes to move upwards. This will require a clearer view of the Iran conflict's winding down.

Earnings from Nvidia, the world's largest company and most valuable in terms of market value, are due to be released on Wednesday. Expectations for this company are high.

Nvidia's shares have risen 36% from the low of March, while the Philadelphia SE?semiconductor Index has soared 60%. This is due to the fervent demand for chips, as tech companies invest massively in AI-related infrastructure.

This week, Walmart will release a number of retail results that will give a glimpse into the consumer's reaction to high energy costs.

The greenback has been the most liquid currency in the forex market because of risk aversion. The United States? The?U.S.

The euro was at $1.1620 after losing?1.4% in the last week. The pound sank to $1.3318 after a 2.3% drop last week, as political instabilities added to the already high pressure on gilt markets.

The dollar remained steady against the yen, at 158.64. Only the threat of Japanese interference prevented another speculative attack on the 160.00 chart.

Gold was unchanged at $4,540 per ounce on the commodity markets. It has received little support as a safe-haven or a hedge against inflation. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong; Reporting by Wayne Cole)

(source: Reuters)