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Stocks rise on optimism about earnings as Fed meeting nears

The markets found their feet in Asian trading on Wednesday, as concerns about the Iran conflict, the health of the AI industry, and corporate earnings eased. Investors also focused more attention on the Federal Reserve decision due later. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside of Japan reversed earlier losses and rose 0.2% as gains in Hong Kong stocks stabilized the index. The Japanese markets were closed on a public holiday. S&P 500 futures rose by 0.2% while Brent crude climbed 0.2% to $111.51 a barrel, as efforts to resolve the Iran conflict reached a deadlock.

Kate Moore, Chief Investment Officer at Citi Wealth, said, "For us, the earnings are most important right now." She said that Q1 earnings were tracking growth year-over-year and increasing. Analysts usually spend the earnings season revising down numbers. The opposite seems to be occurring this season." Corporate America has shown resilience against the Iran conflict. With slightly more than one-third of S&P500 sectors already reporting profits, 81% have beaten expectations.

The AI-driven rally will be further tested by the earnings of U.S. technology giants Microsoft Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms due on Wednesday.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that AI giant OpenAI missed its internal targets of weekly users and revenue. This raised concerns about the parent company ChatGPT's ability?to support massive expenditure on data centres. Shares of Oracle and CoreWeave were impacted by the report on Wall Street on Tuesday. The S&P 500 fell?0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.9%. Investors also assessed the Iranian impasse. U.S. President Donald Trump was not happy with the latest proposal by Tehran, as he wanted nuclear issues addressed from the start. The Journal reported Tuesday, citing U.S. government officials, that Trump instructed his aides on how to prepare for a prolonged blockade against Iran.

The market will focus on the Federal Reserve meeting in April, which is Jerome Powell's final meeting as Fed chairman. The traders believe that a hold will be a certainty. Fed funds futures price a 100% implied probability that the U.S. Central Bank will maintain rates. No policy changes are expected until the end of 2027.

Analysts from ING wrote a research report that "given the challenging inflation environment caused by war, it will not?cost the Fed much to adopt a hawkish stance; while remaining on a wait and see mode." There will also be questions about the intention of Powell and Kevin Warsh to remain or leave. The yield on a 10-year Treasury bond in the United States was up by 0.8 basis points at 4,344%. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar?index which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket six currencies edged up by 0.1% to 98.71. This is the second consecutive day that the index has risen. The markets also digested United Arab Emirates' surprise withdrawal from OPEC. However, the rest of OPEC is expected to remain together.

The UAE produces around 10% of OPEC's output. This news could have caused the Brent price to drop $5 or $6 on any given day.

Brent futures front-month quickly recovered the initial loss. Gold fell 0.2% to $4,583.40. Bitcoin gained 1.1% to $77,296.62 and ether rose 1.5% to $2,331.23. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong, Kate Mayberry and Gregor Stuart Hunter)

(source: Reuters)