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The Canadian inflation rate has accelerated to 2.8% due to the Iran war and higher gasoline prices

Data released on Tuesday showed that the annual inflation rate in Canada increased to 2.8% from 2.4% in March. This was largely due to a sharp rise in gasoline prices following the 'Iran War, which pushed up global crude oil prices.

The consumer price index has reached 2.8% for the first time since almost two years. This shows how quickly the economic effects of the war in Iran that began on February 28 have been felt.

The inflation rate was lower than analysts expected as the prices of travel, tours, certain accommodation costs and furniture fell on an annual basis in April.

The analysts polled had predicted the annual inflation rate to be 3.1%, and?the monthly rate of inflation at 0.7%. Statistics Canada reported that the monthly inflation rate in April was 0.7%.

StatsCan reported that the removal of the carbon tax on consumers in April 2025 has resulted now in a monthly decrease for gasoline and natural gases. This also increased the pressure in the CPI basket.

The cost of transportation increased by 7.6%, the highest level since November 2022, due to higher gasoline prices. These prices rose 28.6% from April to April, and 38% overall since the beginning of war. The carbon tax has ended, and the gasoline prices have also increased on an annual basis.

Rents rose 3.6%, and prices for passenger vehicles rose 2.8%.

The Bank of Canada closely monitors the core measures of inflation to gauge underlying inflation trends. They have slowed. CPI-median (the centermost component in the CPI basket) was 2.1% in April, down from 2.3% in march. CPI-trim (which excludes the most extreme changes in price) was down from 2.2% to 2%.

Prime Minister Mark Carney offered a 10-cent-per-liter reduction in gasoline excise tax for a period of five months.

After the inflation report, the Canadian dollar fell 0.20% to C$1.3766 (or 72.64 U.S. cents). The yields on two-year government bond were down 4 basis points at 2.782%.

After the CPI report, money market bets on a rate increase slipped and now price in a 25 basis-point hike in interest rates for October.

(source: Reuters)