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Rhine River shipping is hampered by low water levels
Commodity traders reported on Monday that low water levels following a period of dry weather have prevented cargo vessels from sailing on the Rhine River in Germany with their full load. They will be charged a surcharge on top of the normal freight rate. The traders claim that low water levels are affecting shipping along the entire river south of Duisburg and Cologne. This includes the chokepoint at Kaub. At Kaub, the cargo vessels are only able to sail at a maximum of?50% capacity, while in the northern regions, they can travel up to?70% capacity depending on the vessel type. The Rhine is an important shipping route for commodities like?grains and minerals, coal, ores, oil products including heating oil. In shallow water, vessel operators will increase freight rates in order to compensate for the fact that vessels are not fully loaded. This increases costs for cargo owners. This also means that loads are spread across a number of vessels, which may be sailing partially loaded. The traders said that the rain forecast for 'the next week' in river catchment regions could mean some improvement is in sight. German companies will face production and supply problems after the 'drought and heat wave' of 2022, which led to abnormally low Rhine water levels. Michael Hogan, reporting from Hamburg and Kirsten Donovan editing the story)
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India palm oil imports drop to a one-year low on April weak demand
India's palm oils imports dropped 27% in April to a "one-year low" as refiners slowed purchases due to the sluggishness of demand from institutional buyers, and recent price increases that reduced its discount to competing oils. India's palm oil imports fell 27% to a?one-year low in April, as sluggish demand?from institutional buyers and a recent price rally that eroded?its discount to rival oils prompted refiners to curb purchases, five dealers said. Dealer estimates show that palm oil imports dropped to 505,000 tons in April from 689.462 tons in march. Imports of soyoil rose by 24% in April, compared to March, to 355,000 metric tons. This is the highest level in four months. Sunflower oil shipments increased more than twice to 435,000 metric tons, which is the highest since 22 months. Estimates show that India's total edible oil imports rose 10.4% in March, to 1.3 millions tons in April. This is the highest since January 2026. Dealers said that the figures do not include duty-free shipments from Nepal arriving at land borders. By mid-May, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India will release its April import statistics. Sandeep Bajoria is the chief executive officer of Sunvin Group. The firm specializes in vegetable oil brokerage and consulting. The restaurants offer popular deep-fried dishes like chole bhature and samosas. India, the second largest cooking gas importer in the world, is experiencing its worst 'gas crisis' in decades as the government raises prices for commercial cylinders and cuts supplies to industry. According to Rajesh Patel of edible oil trader GGN in Rajkot, Gujarat, Sunflower oil imports increased by a significant amount during April as the refining margins for sunflower oil were higher than those for rival oils. Indian buyers placed orders before disruptions caused by the Iran War.
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The US dollar rate is expected to rise as the inflation fears and Iran war clouds US rate outlook
Gold prices were pushed lower on Monday in a thinly traded session, as inflation fears clouded U.S. monetary policies outlook. Meanwhile, markets waited for developments in U.S. Iran peace negotiations. As of 0655 GMT, spot gold was down 0.5% to $4,588.71 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell 0.9% to $4,560.60. The markets in China, Japan, and the UK will be closed on holidays. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, 'ended his eight-year tenure as head of U.S. Central bank on Wednesday. Interest rates were held and inflation concerns increased. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that gold was still feeling the effects of the Fed's hawkish messaging from last week, particularly the dissenting voices who pushed back against any further easing. Federal Reserve officials who dissented from the policy statement made last week said that the U.S. should not be tempted to cut interest rates due to the shock caused by the 'Iran war. A rise in oil prices may encourage central banks, who will then hold their interest rates at a higher level for longer. This would put pressure on non-yielding investments such as gold. The oil prices have eased, but remain above $100 a barrel. Lack of clarity around a possible U.S. Iran peace deal remains the main focus. Donald Trump announced that the United States will begin helping to free ships stuck in the 'Gulf due to the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, starting Monday. A tanker had reported being 'hit by unknown.projectiles? in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media reported Washington's response to Iran’s 14-point offer via Pakistan and that Tehran is now reviewing it. We see gold trading largely in the $4,400 to $5,500 range by the end of this year. Waterer said that the upper half of this range would be dependent on a sustained reduction in Middle East tensions as well as a?decrease in inflation pressures. Meanwhile, persistently high oil prices would push the metal toward the lower end of the range. Spot silver dropped 0.6%, to $74.91 an ounce. Platinum remained at $1.989 and palladium fell 0.4%, at $1.519.78.
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Greens from the UK's left seek to overthrow Labour's London-based strongholds
Nadeshda Jaakody, a human rights lawyer in Hackney, east London, is one of the many urban progressives who are switching to the Green Party. This trend could cost British PM Keir starmer dearly in London. Starmer's Labour Party, in response to Nigel Farage and Reform UK's rise, is adopting a 'tougher' stance on immigration issues. This could cost the party voters such as Nadeshda Jayakody. Jayakody said, "I think the Greens are more in line with my values." Jayakody voted Labour at the general election of 2024. "Labour panders to the right, toward Reform, instead of trying to lead from either the centre or left." The local council elections that will take place in London on 7 May are part of a wider set of votes throughout Britain, which could threaten Starmer's Premiership. Starmer has seen his popularity plummet since taking office, despite leading the centre-left Labour Party to a massive election victory in 2024. After a series of scandals, and the feeling that Labour has not delivered the improvements in living standards it promised, the party is bracing itself for major losses. GREEN GAIN IN MANCHESTER WATERSHED MOMENT Since Zack Polanski took over as leader of the Greens in September, and moved the party leftwards, they have gained a?momentum. He has pushed for rent control, higher taxes on the wealthy, and legalization of drugs. The party polls between 15% and 20% nationally, sometimes even ahead of Labour. In February, the Greens won an astonishing victory in a Labour-held parliamentary seat in Greater Manchester. This cast doubt on Starmer's claim that Labour is the only progressive party that can defeat Reform. Zoe Garbett is the Green candidate running for Hackney Mayor. She said, "People in Hackney were really following it and could really see that we are a viable alternative." Garbett said that Hackney voters, where Labour has been the largest party in the council since 1970, are dissatisfied for many reasons. These range from local housing problems to their stance regarding the Gaza War. There are close races in several London Boroughs, according to polls. YouGov's model from last month showed the Greens leading in four London Boroughs, including Hackney. A JL Partners model put them just ahead in Camden - Keir Starmer’s own parliamentary constituency. Reform may also do well in the outer boroughs of London. Starmer said that his government was delivering on its priorities in a period of great global challenges, such as stabilising public finances, reducing poverty among children, and reducing hospital waiting lists. Greens were criticized after some of its candidates were accused antisemitism. Polanski is Jewish and has stated that there should only be one case of antisemitism. However, he also said that this issue shouldn't be confused with legitimate criticisms of Israel. Last week, London's chief of police rebuked him for retweeting a tweet criticizing officers who arrested a suspect after two Jewish people in north London were stabbed. VOTERS IN CONFLICT BETWEEN THE LABOUR PARTY AND THE GREENS Some voters, despite the growing support for Greens in Hackney have expressed sympathy for Starmer. This is a district that Labour won in 2024 by almost 40 percentage points. Mel Bagshaw, an 69-year-old photographer, stated that he would vote Labour again because they have always protected the most vulnerable people in society. He added that the Greens are "slightly too radical" for him. Sophie Bullock, a 39-year-old operations manager, who normally votes Labour, said she was torn because she wanted "some stability and consistency" when she backed Starmer and Labour but she was leaning toward the "refreshing energy" of the Greens. Garbett, the Green candidate, said that voters on a national scale felt "really disappointed" by the parties of establishment. She said: "I believe we've witnessed a real shift in politics, and I think that this election will be a major change for London." Reporting by Alistair Smout, Marissa Davison and Toby Chopra
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Singapore and NZ Sign Deal to Keep Supply Chains Open, Saying They Are Open to Interest from Other Countries
On Monday, the leaders of Singapore signed an agreement with New Zealand to keep their supply chains open in times of crisis. They said they hoped that 'the agreement' would serve as a'model for other countries who want to build a trusted network. On his recent visit to Singapore, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon saw the signing between his Singaporean counterpart Lawrence Wong and himself. This is at a time when global energy supplies have been 'disrupted' by the Middle East war. Singapore refines a third of the fuel used in New Zealand. The Agreement on Trade of Essential Supplies was concluded in October, last year during Wong's New Zealand visit before the Middle East conflict broke out. The agreement allows both countries to continue trading a list of agreed-upon goods in times of crisis. This includes fuel, medical, and construction products. Wong stated that he welcomes other countries to join the new standard. He cited how an earlier partnership between Brunei?Chile?New Zealand?and Singapore?was expanded and became the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. Luxon said that he would be happy to receive interest from countries who share his views on the framework of the deal, given the challenges posed by the shift in geopolitics from a world multilaterally governed by rules to one multipolarly dominated by power. He said that the agreement we just signed, as a first in the world, was a good example of how we could model and remake multilateralism to suit our needs.
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The US dollar rate is expected to rise as the inflation fears and Iran war clouds US rate outlook
Inflation worries that 'clouded' the U.S. outlook for monetary policy weighed on gold prices, which dipped in a thinly traded session on Monday. Meanwhile, markets were awaiting developments in U.S. Iran peace negotiations. As of 0456 GMT, spot gold was down by 0.2%, at $4,605.19 an ounce. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery fell 0.6% to $ 4,616.30. The markets in China, Japan and UK are closed on holidays. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, completed eight years as head of U.S. Central bank on Wednesday. Interest rates were held and there was growing concern about inflation. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that gold was still feeling the effects of the Fed's hawkish messaging from last week, especially the voices who pushed back against any further easing. Federal Reserve officials who disagreed with the policy statement made last week said that the U.S. Central Bank'should be clear about the fact it cannot?nolonger lean toward interest rate reductions, as a future rise in borrowing costs is possible. Oil prices rising could encourage central bankers to keep interest rates high for longer. This would put pressure on non-yielding investments such as gold, as investors look to other options that offer higher returns like Treasury yields. The oil prices eased, but remained above $100 a barrel. Lack of clarity surrounding a possible U.S. Iran peace deal remained in the spotlight. On Monday, a maritime security organization reported that a tanker had been hit by unknown projectiles while in the Strait of Hormuz. This was shortly after U.S. president Donald Trump'said Washington will start 'helping to free ships stranded by the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran in the Gulf. Iranian state media reported Washington's response to the 14-point proposal from Iran via Pakistan and that Tehran is now reviewing it. We?see gold trading largely in the $4,400 to $5,500 range by the end of this year. Waterer said that the upper half of this range would be dependent on a sustained reduction in Middle East tensions as well as a slight easing of inflation pressures. Meanwhile, persistently high oil prices will keep gold towards the lower end of the range. Spot silver increased 0.1%, to $75.37 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.7%, to $2,002.80. Palladium was 0.2% higher, at $1,528.22.
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NEWSMAKER - The Saudi oil prince's grip on power is put to the ultimate test by UAE's shocking OPEC withdrawal
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman is now faced with a new OPEC challenge on top of dealing with the biggest ever disruption in global oil supply. Saudi Arabia, and the other members of the oil-producing group are unable?to tap into the spare capacity that is usually used in times of crisis because of a slowed down Gulf crude exports. The sudden departure this week of OPEC’s fourth-largest 'producer' last 'year, the United Arab Emirates - taking with them spare capacity second only in the kingdom – poses a daunting test for the new royal Saudi oil minister whose approach has shifted away from careful diplomacy and towards more unilateral decision making. "The UAE has been agitating within OPEC for many years, but never received a fair hearing about its...quota. Now the chickens are coming home to roost," Jim Krane said, a Rice University Baker Institute fellow. Prince Abdulaziz, also known as ABS or ABS, is OPEC+'s OPEC+ leader. His power comes from Saudi Arabian oil reserves and spare capacity. He is not a former energy minister, but a royal who has the support of his half-brother Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, de facto ruler. ABS won a price battle with Russia in 2020, when Moscow refused to reduce production at first as demand dropped. Later, ABS told a Saudi documentary that it was a question of "to be or not to - who's the boss? of this sector." He has also consistently ignored former U.S. president Joe Biden’s calls for increased production. ABS, who is now 66 years old, was granted unprecedented powers by OPEC in 2022. They trusted him to call any meeting at any time as their chairman. His demand for market discipline will now meet a "new reality". If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and Gulf oil production returns to normal, the Saudi prince will no longer be able to control an unrestrained UAE that accounted for 12% of OPEC's production last year. Requests for comment from the Saudi government's communications office, Saudi energy ministry, and UAE energy and foreign ministers were not answered. There is little room for debate During the oil market crash in 2020 caused by a pandemic, ABS demanded a historic OPEC+ agreement on production cuts. This led to days of marathon talks until a diplomatic deal was reached involving the United States taking a portion of Mexico's output restrictions, the lone holdout. The two OPEC+ delegates stated that the commitment to unity had become more intense since then. The pair reported that Saudi officials typically notify ministers of smaller OPEC+ producers about the final agreement the night before meetings. One of the delegates said that at a recent meeting, the calls were made first to Alexander Novak from Russia, and then to representatives of the six other countries who had committed to voluntary reductions. Saudi Arabia is the main culprit for output reductions, according to several delegates. The source said that the lack consultation over major decisions is a departure from previous practice. She also noted that OPEC+ marginalised its role for technical expert assessments by late 2022. The delegate, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said: "We appreciate His Royal Highness's efforts to lower the price of oil." While recent events have raised questions about OPEC's future and its alliance with Russia one of the delegates, and another source who is familiar with group thinking, told us that the crisis will ultimately strengthen the cohesion and make decision-making easier. RIVALRY Saudi Arabia's and the UAE’s geopolitical competition erupted at the beginning of the year when fighting broke out between opposing Yemeni factions supported both by Riyadh & Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi?demanded a greater output quota in 2021. This was the culmination of a long-simmering dispute between OPEC and Abu Dhabi. After public grievances, a deal was reached to increase oil production by 300,000. Sky News Arabia reported at the time that "It's unreasonable to accept more injustice and sacrifice. We have been patient." ABS, a frustrated ABS, told Al Arabiya "a little bit of rationality and a little bit of compromise will save?OPEC+". He added that he "never saw such a request" in the 34 years he has attended OPEC meetings. Since 2019, the UAE's quota has increased by about 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), or 0.5% of total global demand. This is more than any other member of the group. This included an increase in the UAE's goal for June 2023 when Angola, Nigeria and others saw theirs reduced. Angola quit months later in anger. Although the Saudis made concessions, the UAE still left the group on Tuesday. WIDDENING LOSSES The UAE's output and exit targets are of little significance to oil markets as long as the Strait remains effectively closed. The UAE, however, has been able to maintain some supplies via the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia was able to redirect 60-70% exports via a 1981 pipeline constructed during the Iran-Iraq War to the Red Sea. Mazrouei, who was barred from reporting on the OPEC meeting last year by other media outlets, said that the UAE would be ready to increase capacity a further 20%, to 6 million bpd, after 2027 – half the Saudi capacity – a challenge to ABS’s efforts to reign in overproduction.
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Opening the Strait or not?
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. Strait?watching is back for a new week. Everyone is a shipping expert today and the Strait of Hormuz is where it's at. So President Trump surprised us this morning when he announced the launch of Project Freedom, which will help around 900'ships trapped in the Strait escape past the Iranians. The U.S. Central Command issued a short media release that said it would support merchant vessels in their quest to transit freely through this vital international trade corridor. CentCom has stated that this will include guided missile destroyers, more than 100 aircraft on land and at sea, as well as multi-domain unmanned platform, 15,000 members of the military, implying some kind of military intervention to get the ships away. It's possible to use a convoy system. However, it is not clear that the Navy has the necessary ships or the right type of vessel for such an operation. A convoy would be extremely difficult to maneuver through a waterway so narrow, and even dangerous, if Iranian forces were to control the entire northern shoreline of the Gulf. Trump has said that the operation will begin today. So far, markets have not made a decision. According to a?Axios article, the operation will not necessarily involve Navy vessels escorting private vessel. Considering the reports that?two ships have been attacked since Sunday, it was unclear if ship owners and crews were willing to sail through the strait. There's no evidence of ships lining up to try their luck on the ship tracking websites. On 2 May, twelve ships -- five inbound and 7 outbound -- crossed the Strait. This compares to an average daily number of 138 vessels before the conflict. After initially falling by more than 2%, Brent is now almost stable at $108 per barrel. U.S. crude is just below $100. The dollar is barely moving, while European and U.S. stocks futures have firmed up a little. This week, the markets are expecting more than 100 reports on earnings. Advanced Micro Devices, Super Micro Computer Inc., Palantir and Walt?Disney are among the companies reporting. AMD must sound optimistic to justify its recent 80% increase in share price. Data from U.S. Trade figures, ISM Services, JOLTS and ADP Employment all contribute to the?payrolls report that will be released on Friday. The median forecast is 4.3% with a rise in 60,000. However, seasonal adjustment problems cause?estimates to range from -15,000 up to +135,000. Given the three dissenters on the FOMC who argued against an easing bias?last week, a very weak report is needed to revive any chance of a Fed interest rate cut in this year. John Williams, the NY Fed's influential chief, will be able to explain his "thinking" later today. On Monday, several ECB and BoC representatives will speak. The central bank of Australia will meet on Tuesday. It is expected (by around 80%) that the cash rate will be raised by 25 bps, to 4.35%. This would be the third consecutive hike. Markets on Monday could be affected by key developments: ECB 'President Christine Lagarde, and ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone attend Eurogroup Meeting in Brussels - Presentation the ECB Annual Report for 2025 Appearance of Bank of Canada Governor Tiff MacKlem and Bank of Canada Senior Vice Governor Carolyn Rogers Federal Reserve Bank of New York president John Williams delivers a keynote speech
Dutch gas prices rise amid Strait of Hormuz uncertainty
Dutch natural gas prices climbed a bit on Monday, despite contradictory messages from the United States and Iran about whether ships could pass through the Strait of Hormuz where LNG supplies are still trapped.
Data from the Intercontinental Exchange showed that the?benchmark Dutch front month contract at the TTF Hub was up 0.39 euros at 46.16 euro per megawatt-hour (MWh) at 0755 GMT, after trading as low at 44.50 euro/MWh earlier.
Monday is a holiday in Britain.
Iran has warned U.S. military forces against entering the Strait of Hormuz.
Karsten Sander-Nielsen, a senior analyst at Mind Energy, said: "The market is sideways today while everyone watches the Middle East and whether the U.S. can force through the reopening of Hormuz." Since the beginning of the conflict on February 28, only one LNG-laden tanker has been able to pass the shipping chokepoint.
Analysts at ING Research say that the?market is not convinced by Trump's?Project Freedom plan.
Gassco data showed that Norwegian pipeline gas supply remains subdued due to maintenance. Nominations total 282.6 million cubic meters (mcms) per day.
Mind Energy's Nielsen said that "apart from the Strait of Hormuz being closed, Europe has to also deal with reduced supplies?from Norway?, fears of an extremely warm and dry summer?, and very low levels of storage."
Gas Infrastructure Europe's data shows that EU gas storage facilities were 33.4% full last month, down from 40.3% last year.
The benchmark contract on the European carbon markets was up 0.33 euros at 74.27 euro per metric ton. (Reporting and editing by Nora Buli)
(source: Reuters)