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OPEC+ increases oil production quotas for the third time since Hormuz's closure

?OPEC+ decided on Sunday a modest increase in oil production for June. This will remain largely a paper increase as long as the Iran War continues to disrupt Gulf Oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

OPEC+ announced in a press release after an online conference that seven OPEC+ member countries would increase their oil production targets in June by 188,000 barrels a day, marking the third consecutive month of increases. The increase is identical to that for May, minus the United Arab Emirates' share. They left the group May 1.

OPEC+?sources said that the move was intended to demonstrate the group's readiness to?raise supply once the war ends and to signal that OPEC+ continues to do business as usual despite the UAE leaving OPEC+.

"OPEC+ sends a double-layered message to the market : continuity despite UAE's departure, and control despite a limited physical impact," said Jorge Leon. He is an analyst with?Rystad, and he was formerly OPEC.

The Strait of Hormuz is a major constraint on the physical supply, even though output has increased on paper. It's less about adding barrels, and more about letting OPEC+ know that they still have the final say.

Saudi Arabia, the top OPEC+-producer, will have a quota of 10.291 millions bpd by June. This is far more than its actual production. In March, the kingdom reported a production rate of 7.76 millions bpd.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq Kuwait, Algeria Kazakhstan, Russia and Oman were the seven members that met on Sunday. OPEC+ now has 21 members, including Iran, after the UAE leaves. In recent years, only the seven nations plus UAE were involved in the monthly production decisions.

The hike will remain a significant symbol until the Hormuz re-opens.

The Iran War, which began February 28 and resulted in the closure of the?strait of Hormuz, has slowed down exports by OPEC+ member Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the?UAE. These?producers had been the only ones in the group that could increase production before the conflict.

Oil executives from the Gulf have stated that it could take months for the flow of oil to return to normal.

Analysts predict that jet fuel shortages will occur in the next one to two weeks and global inflation will spike.

Crude oil production from all OPEC+ member countries averaged 35.06 mbpd in march, down 7.70 mbpd compared to February. Iraq and Saudi Arabia made the largest cuts because of constrained exports.

The statement stated that the seven OPEC+ member countries will meet again on 7 June. Reporting by Alex Lawler and Olesya Astakhova, writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov, editing by William Maclean, Joe Bavier

(source: Reuters)