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NEWSMAKER - The Saudi oil prince's grip on power is put to the ultimate test by UAE's shocking OPEC withdrawal
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman is now faced with a new OPEC challenge on top of dealing?with the biggest ever disruption in global oil supplies. Saudi Arabia, and the other members of OPEC's group of oil producing countries, are now unable to use their spare capacity in times of crisis due to the Iran war. The sudden departure this week of OPEC’s fourth-largest 'producer' last 'year, the United Arab Emirates - taking with them spare capacity second only in the kingdom's - poses a daunting test for the new royal Saudi oil minister whose approach has shifted away from careful diplomacy and towards more unilateral decision making. "The UAE has been chafing within OPEC for many years, but never received a fair hearing about its...quota. Now the chickens are coming home to roost," Jim Krane said, a Rice University Baker Institute fellow. Prince Abdulaziz, also known as ABS or ABS, is OPEC+'s OPEC+ leader. His power comes from Saudi Arabian oil reserves and spare capacity. He is not a former energy minister, but a royal who has the support of his half-brother Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, de facto ruler. ABS won a price battle with Russia in 2020, when Moscow refused to reduce production at first as demand dropped. Later, ABS told a Saudi documentary that it was a question of "to be or not to - who's the boss?of this industry." He has also consistently ignored former U.S. president Joe Biden’s calls for increased production. ABS, who is now 66 years old, was granted unprecedented powers by OPEC in 2022. They trusted him to call any meeting at any time as their chairman. His demand for market discipline will now meet a "new reality". If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and Gulf oil production returns to normal, the Saudi prince will no longer be able to control an unrestrained UAE that accounted for 12% of OPEC's production last year. Requests for comment from the Saudi government's communications office, Saudi energy ministry, and UAE energy and foreign ministers were not answered. There is little room for debate During the oil market crash in 2020 caused by a pandemic, ABS demanded a historic OPEC+ agreement on production cuts. This led to days of marathon talks until a diplomatic deal was reached involving the United States taking a portion of Mexico's output restrictions, the lone holdout. The two OPEC+ delegates stated that the commitment to unity had become more intense since then. The pair reported that Saudi officials typically notify ministers of smaller OPEC+ producers about the final agreement the night before meetings. One of the delegates said that at a recent meeting, the calls were made first to Alexander Novak from Russia, and then to representatives of the six other countries who had committed to voluntary reductions. Saudi Arabia is the main culprit for output reductions, according to several delegates. The source said that, despite the fact that it was a departure from previous practice, the lack of consultations on major decisions is still a nuisance. She also noted that OPEC+ marginalised its role in the technical expert assessments by late 2022. The delegate, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said: "We appreciate His Royal Highness's efforts to lower the price of oil." While recent events have raised questions about OPEC's future and its alliance with Russia one of the delegates, and another source who is familiar with group thinking, told us that the crisis will ultimately strengthen the cohesion and make decision-making easier. RIVALRY Saudi Arabia's and the UAE’s geopolitical competition erupted at the beginning of the year when fighting broke out between opposing Yemeni factions supported both by Riyadh & Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi?demanded a greater output quota in 2021. This was the culmination of a long-simmering dispute between OPEC and Abu Dhabi. After public grievances, a deal was reached to increase oil production by 300,000. Sky News Arabia reported at the time that "It's unreasonable to accept more injustice and sacrifice. We have been patient." ABS, a frustrated ABS, told Al Arabiya "a little bit of rationality and a little bit of compromise will save?OPEC+", stating that he "never saw such a request" in the 34 years he has attended OPEC meetings. Since 2019, the UAE's quota has increased by around 500,000 bpd or 0.5% of worldwide demand, more than any other member. This included an increase in the UAE's goal for June 2023 when Angola, Nigeria and others saw theirs reduced. Angola quit months later in anger. Although the Saudis made concessions, the UAE still left the group on Tuesday. WIDDENING LOSSES The UAE's output and exit targets are of little significance to oil markets as long as the Strait remains effectively closed. The UAE, however, has been able to maintain some supplies via the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia was able to redirect 60-70% exports via a 1981 pipeline constructed during the Iran-Iraq War to the Red Sea. Mazrouei, who was barred from reporting on the OPEC meeting last year by other media outlets, said that the UAE would be ready to increase capacity a further 20%, to 6 million bpd, after 2027 – half the Saudi capacity – a challenge to ABS’s efforts to reign in overproduction.
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Gold is a positive, as oil prices drop and hopes for Iran talks fade
On Friday, gold rose, reversing losses of over 1%. This was on the back of hopes that a breakthrough would be made in the Iran war after Tehran presented a new negotiation proposal, which eased inflation concerns. At 1:50 pm, spot gold rose 0.1% to $4 627.63 an ounce. ET (1750 GMT), after having fallen as low as $4,59.48 in earlier sessions. The stock was still on course for a loss of 1.7% per week. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery rose 0.4% to $4649.60. Chris Gaffney is the president of EverBank's world markets. He said that positive news about negotiations to end war with Iran helped gold recover from its early morning losses. He added that a halt to the Iran War could prompt the FOMC again to cut interest rates, which would lower the value of the U.S. Dollar and boost gold prices. Dollar fell against other currencies, making greenback bullion more affordable for buyers with other currencies. Iran's state-run media and a Pakistani government official have reported that Iran has presented its latest proposal to negotiate with the United States. The news caused oil prices to drop, but they were still on track to make weekly gains. This is continuing fueling concerns about an economic slowdown in the world and a surge in inflation due to the rise of fuel prices. Investors may turn to alternatives such as Treasury yields as a result of rising costs. This could put pressure on gold and other non-yielding investments. The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this week, striking a hawkish note that led markets to abandon their expectations of a rate reduction in 2018. The price of gold has fallen significantly since the beginning?of the Iran Conflict in late February. This is despite its traditional role as a hedge to geopolitical uncertainties. Silver prices have risen 3%, to $75.91 an ounce. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He wrote: "Long-term Outlook (for Silver)?remains backed by a sixth consecutive annual market deficit. Palladium rose 0.6%, to $1,532.79. Platinum increased 0.3%, at $1,992.05. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru. (Editing by Nia William and Mark Potter.
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China urges urgent maintenance of Iran war ceasefire
China's U.N. Ambassador Fu Cong said that it was a?urgent need to maintain the Iran War ceasefire. He also stated that the?Strait of Hormuz?issue?would?be?highly on the agenda when U.S. president Donald Trump visits China in this month. Fu told United Nations reporters that the strait must be reopened quickly. He said, "China is very concerned by recent remarks about the ceasefire only being temporary and the need for another round of attack." He said that the U.S. and Iran must lift their naval blockade. "The most urgent matter is to maintain the ceasefire. He said that the ceasefire "must last" and there must be good faith negotiations between the two parties. "I believe the international community needs to be mobilized, and we need to raise our voices in opposition to the return of war." When asked about the visit of President Donald Trump to China planned for this month, he replied: "I am sure that if Hormuz remains closed when President Trump visits China, then this issue will top the agenda in the bilateral discussions." Fu rejected as "false" allegations made by?some U.S. official? about military cooperation between China & Iran. Fu briefed at the beginning of the month long?Chinese Presidency of the U.N. Security Council, and said that?Chinese foreign Minister Wang Yi will preside a session on the council on 26 May. The U.S. State Department did not immediately respond when asked if Secretary of State Marco Rubio was planning to meet Wang during his visit to the U.S.
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Raul Castro, Cuba's Raul joins May Day March as tensions with US simmer
Raul Castro, 94 years old, joined thousands of Cubans in an International Workers' Day March on Friday. The march passed by the waterfront of Havana's capital and the U.S. Embassy as tensions reach unprecedented levels between the two nations. Washington has repeatedly suggested that it might take military action against communist-run Caribbean Island and has since January imposed an oil embargo, forcing the authorities to ration services and the U.N. warning of a humanitarian emergency. White House officials informed? During the May Day celebrations, White House officials informed?sprachsprachsprachsprachwährend during May Day celebrations at the White house officials from the Whitehouse officials told??während?? During May Day celebrations of May Day took place, White House officials informing? During May Day celebrations were taking place, White House officials informed? White House officials told?sprach când May Day celebrations were taking place, the White House informed sprache?sprachsprachsprachsprachesprachtimately, the White house officials informed?sprachsprachsprachsprachesprach? During the Mayday celebrations in Cuban officials from the Whitehouse officials at the White House officials informed? Castro, who succeeded Fidel Castro as president in 2018, received a book with over 6 million signatures from Cubans. This represents nearly two thirds of the entire population. It shows the?will of the Cuban people to defend their country against a direct attack by the U.S. "Today Cuba showed?once more that this people doesn't give up and that we'll defend our homeland tooth-and-nail, even though we desire peace," said 34-year old Havana resident Milagros morales who participated in the march. The march this year was scaled down, as the government could not provide the usual?transportation or special routes due to the U.S. blockade of oil. However, authorities still counted more than half a million in Havana. Although the U.S. is pushing Cuba to reform its economic system, there has not yet been an announcement of an agreement between the two delegations. According to media reports, Castro's grandson Raul Rodriquez and son Alejandro Castro have held talks with U.S. officials. This suggests that the Castro family is still active in politics despite Castro’s retirement. Castro looked tired at the'march', when he was walking in uniform with President Miguel Diaz Canel, other officials, and waving flags, under the hot Caribbean sun. He had to suddenly sit down during the ceremony.
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White House declares Iran war "terminated" as deadline for war powers approaches
The U.S. administration of President Donald Trump argued on Friday that the ceasefire agreement with Tehran "terminated" hostilities, as the legal deadline for reporting to Congress about the two-month Iran War arrived. According to the 1973 War Powers Resolution the president is only allowed to wage military action for 60 days. After that, he must ask Congress for permission or seek a 30-day extension if "unavoidable" military necessity exists regarding the safety and security of the United States Armed Forces. On February 28, Israel and the U.S. launched airstrikes against Iran. IRNA, the Iranian state-run news agency, reported on Friday that Tehran had sent its most recent proposal for negotiations with America to Pakistani mediators. Trump officially notified Congress 48 hours after the initial airstrikes. This started the 60-day countdown that ends on May 1. Analysts and congressional aides said that as the date drew near, they expected the Republican president to ignore the deadline. On Thursday, a senior Trump administration official stated that the administration believed the deadline set by the war powers act did not apply. The official requested anonymity to describe the thinking of the administration. "For War Powers Resolution purpose, the hostilities which began on Saturday, 28th February, have ended," said the representative. DEMOCRATIC SENSOR: NO WAY OUT Congressional Democrats who have repeatedly tried to pass legislation granting Trump war powers that would require him to end the conflict or ask Congress for authorization dismissed this characterization. They said that the 1973 law did not allow for a ceasefire. The continued deployment of U.S. vessels blocking Iranian oil exports is evidence of a continuing hostility and not a truce. In a statement, Senator Jeanne Shaheen, New Hampshire's top Democrat, who is also the chairperson of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee said that the deadline was "clearly legal" and called on Trump to take action. As?ELECTIONS LOOM, PARTY LOCUSTRY Trump's fellow Republicans who have slim majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives, and rarely stray from Trump, voted almost unanimously against every resolution that sought to end the war. The Iran War has caused billions in damages, killed thousands of people, and disrupted world markets. It also boosted consumer prices and affected energy shipments. Six months before the November elections, which will determine who controls Congress in 2011, polls show that Americans are not fond of war. Trump's approval rating fell to its lowest level in his current term, this week. Americans blamed higher prices on the war. Only Congress and not the President can declare war in the U.S. Constitution. However, this restriction does apply to short-term missions or countering an immediate threat. Trump was briefed on Thursday about plans to launch new military strikes to force Iran to negotiate a 'end to the conflict. If fighting returns, Trump could tell lawmakers that he's started a 60-day clock. Both parties have done this repeatedly when fighting intermittently since Congress passed the War Powers Law in response to Vietnam War. Congress also did not authorize this conflict, which was unpopular among Americans. (Reporting and editing by Don Durfee, Rod Nickel and Don Durfee; Additional reporting by Bo Erickson)
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Trump extends U.S. Sanctions on Cuban Government
Two White House officials said that President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Friday broadening U.S. Sanctions against the 'Cuban Government. He is trying to put more pressure on Havana following his ouster of Venezuela's president from power. Officials said that the?new sanctions are aimed at people, entities, and affiliates who support the Cuban security apparatus, or are complicit with corruption or serious violations of human rights, as well agents, officials, or supporters of government. The order was reported first by. Officials said that the order authorized secondary sanctions for those who conduct or facilitate transactions with the individuals targeted by the order. The Trump administration's new sanctions against Cuba were its latest offensive. President Trump has declared Cuba to be near collapse. Since February 28, U.S. forces have waged war with Israel on Iran, launching strikes against Iran and Venezuelan vessels. Trump has stated that "Cuba will be next." He hasn't said what he intends to do about the island nation. Officials said that Trump's order was an implicit warning for Cuba. They claimed the Cuban government had aligned themselves with Iran and militant groups such as Hezbollah. Officials said that Cuba provides an environment conducive to hostile foreign intelligence, military and terrorist operations, less than 100 miles away from the American homeland. The U.S. demanded that Cuba open its state-run economic system, pay reparations to expropriated properties by the government of Fidel Castro and hold "free" and fair elections. Cuba's socialist form of government has been declared unassailable. After ousting Maduro in January, the U.S. imposed?additional pressure and sanctions on Cuba. Trump threatened to impose punishing tariffs on any country that shipped?crude oil to Cuba. This prompted Mexico, another major?supplier to stop shipments. Fuel shortages in Cuba led to three national-scale blackouts, and many airlines from abroad suspended flights to Cuba.
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Data shows that Tether purchases of gold for USDT reserves decreased in the first quarter.
In its latest quarterly report, Tether, the issuer of the?world's largest stablecoin?, revealed that it had slowed down its purchases of gold to back?Tether USDT to 6 metric tons, from 27 tons between October and December. Last year, the crypto company bought a lot of gold to use as reserves for the Tether USDT, a stablecoin that is backed by a digital currency with tokens worth $189.5 billion. It also purchased the Tether gold token, the Tether-XAUT, which has a circulation of $3.3 billion. Each Tether dollar token represents one U.S. Dollar held in reserve. Tether issues USDT when a user gives it a dollar. It also holds assets with the same value such as U.S. Treasury Bills. These reserves ensure that USDT is redeemable for dollars in the event of a need. The Tether XAUT is fully backed up by gold. The report revealed that the gold reserves?to support Tether USDT were worth $19.8 billion at the end of March. This would be equivalent to 132 metric tonnes of gold at market prices at that time compared to 126 tons at the end of December last year, according to calculations. As of the end March, Tether USDT's reserves are primarily U.S. Treasury Bills worth $117 billion. Gold represents only 10%. Bitcoin accounted for $7 billion in the reserves. Separate data revealed that Tether, the gold token, is currently backed by 22 tons of gold, an increase of 6 tons since the end of December. Tether holds a total of 154 tons gold in its two products. It would rank among the top 20 gold-holding countries if it were a central banking institution, but behind Brazil which according to World Gold Council data owns 172 tonnes. El Salvador-headquartered Tether doesn't disclose its ?total bullion holdings but they are probably larger: CEO Paolo Ardoino told in ?January that the company aimed to allocate 10%-15% of its own $20-billion investment portfolio to physical gold. Sources say that the group had planned to manage its own gold?investment by hiring two major traders in late 2025, but let them go in March. Four sources with knowledge of the situation said that the approach was not viable because a supervisory structure above the traders became an organizational constraint. One of them stated, "It didn't work." (Reporting and editing by Susan Fenton; Polina Devtt, Polina)
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Gold is a positive, as oil prices drop and hopes for Iran talks fade
Gold prices rose Friday, reversing losses of more than 1% earlier, amid hopes for a breakthrough in the Iran war. According to reports, Tehran had submitted a revised proposal for negotiation, which eased inflation fears. At 10:36 am, spot gold rose 0.3% to $4.636.72 an ounce. ET (1436 GMT), after having fallen as low as $4,59.48 in earlier sessions. The stock was still on course for a weekly loss of 1.6%. U.S. Gold Futures for June Delivery rose 0.4% to $4649.60. The potential 'peace breakthrough', as Iran has signaled that it is willing to resume talks, likely boosted risk appetite among investors, pushed the U.S. dollar index and pushed gold prices higher. "The potential?peace breakthrough, with Iran signalling that it wants to talk again, probably boosted investor risk appetite and pressured the?U.S. dollar index," said Jim Wyckoff. Dollars are cheaper to buyers of other currencies. IRNA, the Iranian state news agency, reported that Iran had sent its latest proposal for negotiations with America to Pakistani mediators. The news caused oil prices to drop, but they were still on track to make weekly gains. This is continuing the trend of fuel prices rising and fueling concerns about an economic slowdown in the world. Central banks could be prompted by rising costs to keep interest rates high for longer. This would put pressure on assets that do not yield, such as gold, as investors look at alternatives like Treasury yields. The U.S. 'Federal Reserve' kept interest rates the same this week, and struck a hawkish stance that caused?markets to abandon expectations of a rate reduction this year. The price of gold has fallen significantly since the beginning of the Iran conflict, in late February. This is despite its traditional role as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainties. Silver prices have risen 3.4%, to $76.26 an ounce. Ole Hansen is the head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank. He wrote: "Long-term prospects (for silver), remain supported by a sixth consecutive year's market deficit. Palladium rose 0.9%, to $1,537.12, while platinum was up by 0.8%. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru. (Editing by Nia William and Mark Potter.
The iron grip of Saudi oil prince faces ultimate test after UAE's shocking OPEC withdrawal
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman is now facing a new OPEC challenge on top of 'the largest disruption in global oil supply ever. Saudi Arabia, along with other oil-producing countries in the group, are now unable to use the spare capacity that is usually used during times of crisis due to the Iran war. The sudden departure this week of OPEC’s fourth largest producer last year, United?Arab?Emirates,?taking along with it spare capacity that is second only to the Kingdom's, presents a formidable challenge for the first Saudi royal oil minister whose approach has shifted away from painstaking diplomatic to more unilateral decision-making.
"The UAE has been chafing within OPEC for many years, but never received a fair hearing about its...quota. Now the chickens are coming home to roost," Jim Krane said, a Rice University Baker Institute fellow.
Prince Abdulaziz, also known as ABS or ABS, is OPEC+'s OPEC+ leader. His power comes from Saudi Arabian oil reserves and spare capacity. He is not a former energy minister, but a royal who has the support of his half-brother Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, de facto ruler.
ABS won a price battle with Russia in 2020 after Moscow refused to reduce production when demand dropped. Later, ABS told a Saudi documentary that it was a question of "to be or not to - who's the boss of this industry."
He also repeatedly ignored former U.S. president Joe Biden’s calls for increased production. ABS, who is now 66 years old, was granted unprecedented powers by OPEC in 2022. As chairman, he could call meetings whenever he wanted.
His demand for market discipline will now meet with a new reality. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and Gulf oil production returns to normal, the Saudi prince will no longer be able to control an unconstrained UAE that accounted for 12% OPEC output last year.
Requests for comment from the Saudi government's communications office, Saudi energy ministry, and UAE energy and foreign ministers were not answered.
There is little room for debate
During the oil market crash in 2020 caused by a pandemic, ABS demanded a historic OPEC+ agreement on production cuts. This led to days of marathon talks until a diplomatic deal was reached whereby the United States would shoulder a portion of Mexico's output restrictions.
The two OPEC+ delegates stated that the 'grueling commitment to unity' has only grown stronger since then.
The pair reported that Saudi officials typically notify ministers of smaller OPEC+ producers about the final agreement a day before meetings. One of the delegates said that at a recent meeting, the calls were made first to Alexander Novak from Russia, and then to representatives of the six other countries who had committed to voluntary reductions.
Saudi Arabia is the main culprit for output reductions, according to several delegates. The source said that the lack consultation over major decisions is a departure from previous practice. She also noted that OPEC+ marginalized the role of their technical expert assessments by late 2022.
The?delegate, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said: "We appreciate His Royal Highness's efforts to bring down the price of oil."
While recent events have raised questions about OPEC's future and its alliance with Russia one of the delegates, and another source who is familiar with group thinking, told us that the crisis will ultimately strengthen the cohesion and make decision-making easier.
RIVALRY The geopolitical rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE erupted at the beginning of the year, when fighting broke out in Yemen among opposing factions supported both by Riyadh & Abu Dhabi.
Abu Dhabi's demand for a higher production quota in 2021 boiled over a long-simmering dispute between OPEC and Abu Dhabi. After public grievances, a deal was reached to increase oil production by 300,000.
Sky News Arabia reported at the time that "it is unreasonable to accept more injustice and sacrifice. We have been patient."
ABS, a frustrated ABS, told Al Arabiya "a little bit of rationality and a little bit of compromise will save OPEC+",?adding he "never saw such a request" in 34 years of attending OPEC meeting.
Since?2019, the UAE's quota has increased by around 500,000 bpd or 0.5% of demand globally, which is more than any other member. This included an increase in the UAE's goal for June 2023 when Angola, Nigeria and others saw theirs reduced. Angola quit months later in anger.
Although the Saudis made concessions, the UAE still left the group on Tuesday.
WIDDENING LOSSES
The UAE's output and exit targets are of little significance to oil markets as long as the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed.
The UAE, however, has been able to maintain some supplies via the Gulf of Oman. Saudi Arabia was able to redirect 60-70% exports via a 1981 pipeline constructed during the Iran-Iraq War to the Red Sea.
Mazrouei, who was barred from reporting on the OPEC meeting last year by other media outlets, said that the UAE would be ready to increase capacity a further 20%, to 6 million bpd, after 2027 – half the Saudi capacity – a challenge to ABS’s efforts to reign in overproduction.
(source: Reuters)