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Oil prices rise in Asia amid Gulf turmoil
The Asian stock markets matched Wall Street's?higher levels on Monday, after a weak U.S. jobs data reduced the risk of an increase in borrowing costs in the near term. However, a lack progress in Gulf peace talks led to a rise in oil prices. Iran announced?on Sunday that an agreement with Oman to define new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz is in its final stages. However, it reiterated that this waterway will only be reopened once the United States meets other conditions. Brent crude increased 1.0% to $84.40 per barrel, as shipping in the crucial waterway was at a crawl. U.S. crude was up 0.8% to $79.80 per barrel. Fuel costs are on the rise again, raising the stakes in the U.S. consumer price report for July due Wednesday. Analysts expect a 0.1% increase in the headline figure and 0.2% in the core. A positive surprise next month could reignite speculation about a Federal Reserve rate hike. Michael Feroli is the chief U.S. economics at JPMorgan. He said that "our forecast for core CPI at 0.22% probably isn't firm enough to trigger a Fed hike at their September meeting." We are looking for a rebound in the prices of core goods after a period in which they dropped by two months. The market for futures has reduced the probability of a move in September to 44% from 67% just a week earlier. Wall Street closed at record highs on Friday due to the 'pullback of rate risk'. Japan's Nikkei rose 2.0%, while South Korea gained 1.1%. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan grew by 0.8%. Chinese blue-chips fell 0.4% as data revealed that consumer and producer prices inflation in July came in below forecasts, highlighting the softness in domestic demand. DOUBLE DIGIT GROWTH IN EARNINGS In Europe, EUROSTOXX Futures 50 and DAX Futures both fell by 0.1% while FTSE Futures dropped 0.4%. S&P futures were unchanged, while Nasdaq's futures rose 0.2% after gaining 5% in the previous week, amid a series of positive earnings reports. Analysts from BofA stated that earnings per share had increased 30% over the previous year, after Alphabet's and Amazon's investment gains were excluded. The 76% EPS rate was the highest since 2021. They said that "AI is still the leader, with median earnings growth of 28 percent compared to 12% for other non-AI related?stocks. However, consensus expects AI to slow down to 16 percent next quarter." This week's earnings are lower, but still include semiconductor maker Applied Materials and networking equipment maker Cisco as well as cloud infrastructure technology provider CoreWeave. Bond markets saw a slight increase in yields on 10-year Treasuries, at 4.662%. The market is preparing for $125 billion of new issuance this week. The U.S. Dollar had fallen sharply as a result of the drop in yields, and the general improvement in the risk environment. The euro was just a few cents away from achieving a seven-week high at $1.1554. Investors were wary about?intervention if they pushed the yen too low. A summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's July meeting revealed that policy makers were concerned about rising inflation, which could lead to a faster than expected pace of interest rate hikes. This boosted the case for an increase in September. The drop in yields has helped gold that does not pay interest to hold its $4,320 per ounce price after it had risen more than 7% over the last week. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam, Stephen Coates and Wayne Cole)
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China data shows that iron ore prices are downbeat despite Australian strikes
Iron ore prices were barely changed on Monday as investors considered the impact of a strike in Australia at a major hub for exporting the key steelmaking ingredient against the downbeat inflation figures from China, the top consumer. As of 0323 GMT, the most traded iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was unchanged at 716 Yuan ($106.13). As of 0315 GMT, the benchmark?September ore price on the Singapore Exchange had increased by 0.21% to $95.25 per ton. On Sunday, more workers joined the strike at BHP's Port Hedland operation in Western Australia. This was the first major industrial action in a quarter century. In the six months to June, 75% of the iron ore exported from Western Australia's Pilbara region was shipped through the hub. Investors and traders are watching to see if both sides can reach a deal soon or if an escalation will affect supply. China's producer prices inflation fell more than expected in July, to the lowest level?in three months. Consumer inflation also dropped, as global energy costs retreated, despite U.S. and Israel war against Iran. Coking coal, coke and other steelmaking ingredients grew by 2.23%, and 0.67% respectively. The Shanghai Futures Exchange steel benchmarks were mostly weaker. Rebar fell?0.23%; hot-rolled coil slipped?0.03%; wire rod dropped 0.46%, while stainless steel gained 0.69%.
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Gold falls from its seven-week high as US inflation data is looming
Gold prices fell on Monday, as investors took profits following a seven-week high. Meanwhile, markets waited for new clues from U.S. inflation figures to determine the Federal Reserve's rate policy. As of 0200 GMT, spot gold was down 0.5% to $4,322.28 an ounce. After a weaker than expected?U.S. jobs data. U.S. Gold futures dropped 0.4% on Monday to $4,381.60. Gold is slightly lower as it succumbs a little to profit-taking after last week's NFP-inspired gains. This is more of a natural stabilisation than a significant shift in sentiment. I expect gold will remain above $4,300 in the near term. The U.S. economy lost jobs unexpectedly in July, and the previously reported gains in employment for the previous two months have been revised dramatically lower. The futures market then changed the odds that a rate increase would occur at the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting on September 15-16 from a more likely-than not chance to a less-than-even possibility. Gold is more attractive than income-generating assets in a low interest rate environment, since it does not earn interest. The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, will be released on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index on Thursday. Waterer said that "soft readings would make the case for a rate hold and open up a new path to further gold upside. Middle East uncertainty is a persistent risk factor as any renewed escalation in oil prices could put pressure on 'the metal. Iran has said that it is close to a final agreement with Oman, defining new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the U.S. still needs to meet several conditions in order for the strategic waterway to be reopened. Silver spot fell by 0.2%, to $63.45 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.1%, to $1.742.50, and palladium dropped 1.1%, to $1.362.97. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu in Bengaluru. Ashitha Shivaprasad is based in Bengaluru.
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Australia tightens restrictions on two Northern Minerals shareholders who are ordered to divest
The Australian government has tightened restrictions on two Northern Minerals shareholders who were ordered to 'divest their shares over national security concerns,' the?miner reported. This is a further scrutiny of Chinese investment in the rare-earths developer. Northern Minerals has developed the Browns Range Heavy Rare Earths Project in Western Australia. Western governments are looking to reduce their reliance on China as a source of these minerals. The Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers, ordered in May that six offshore shareholders of Northern Minerals divest all their shares over concerns that Chinese-linked groups were seeking to control the rare earths miner. Chalmers said it had amended interim instructions for Hong Kong Ying Tak and Real International Resources registered in the British Virgin Islands, as well as Hong Kong Qogir Trading & Service. According to the revised directions, Real and Qogir are not allowed to dispose of their shares until the proposed sale has been notified?to the Treasurer in order for him/her to confirm the buyer isn't an associated party. In May, the six shareholders were required to sell a total of 1.68 billion Northern Minerals shares by July 2 to non-associated parties. The ASX200 index had fallen 0.3% by 0026 GMT, despite the share price of Northern Minerals rising as high as 3.9%. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Jacobi-Phillips, Subhranshu S Ahu, Melanie Burton in Melbourne. Additional reporting by Rajasik Mukherjee)
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Russell: The demand for crude oil in Asia is balanced by the ROI-China.
China is doing all the heavy lifting to reduce crude oil demand in?Asia as a way to compensate for the reduced shipments of Middle East oil due the the Iran?war. The world's largest oil importer reported arriving 8.41 million barrels a day (bpd), up from a near decade-low of 7.12 mln in June, but still 24.3% less than July last year. When June and July imports combined, this gives a?average of 7.78 million bpd over the last two months. The average for the three-month period ending in February was 11,99 million bpd. This is 4,21 million bpd less. The United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran on 28 February. The conflict escalated to the point that the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down, cutting off the waterway which carried about 20% of crude oil and refined goods in the world before the start of war. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are two of the Middle East’s biggest crude exporters. They have been able to increase shipments outside the Strait of Hormuz. However, flows have fallen by about 5 million barrels per day. Crude exports from the Middle East are mainly destined for Asia, which is the largest importer of crude oil. However, crude arrivals in Asia have dropped significantly. According to Kpler's data, Asia imported 22.82 millions bpd of oil in July. Although this was an increase from April's 18.77 millions bpd (which was the lowest since Nov 2015), July's imports still fell by about 4 million per day compared to the average of 26,89 million per day in the three-month period prior to the onset of the 'Iran conflict'. The data shows that China's imports have dropped by about the same amount as the imports of Asia in the last two months. Price Moves China's decreased imports are partly due to price volatility. Brent futures hit a four-year peak of $126.41 per barrel on April 30 – a date when cargoes for June and July would have been scheduled. China has historically reduced imports as prices increase, but this drop is unprecedented. Analysts estimate that China's crude oil stockpile is at least 1.2 million barrels, and could even be higher. How long will China be able to balance crude oil prices in Asia? Imports from China are expected to show a slight recovery in August as the cargoes which managed to leave the Strait of Hormuz despite the short ceasefire between Iran and the United States are delivered. Kpler estimates that China's Middle East imports will reach 2.71 million barrels per day (bpd) in August. This is up from 2.43 millions bpd during July, and 1.42 million in June. Kpler estimates that China's crude oil imports in August will be 5.97 million barrels per day. This is up from 2.43 million bpd in July and the 1.42 million bpd of June, which was?the lowest ever recorded by Kpler going back to 2013. September imports will likely be more telling, since flows from the Middle East are more restricted due to the sharply reduced shipments that have returned through the Strait of Hormuz following the failure of the ceasefire agreement between U.S. president Donald Trump and Tehran. Even if recent efforts to restore vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz prove successful, it may take several weeks before exports ramp up. China's refiners have two options: they can continue to suppress their appetite for import crude and dip into inventories or bid for cargoes coming from outside the Middle East. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by SonaliPaul)
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Oil prices rise on the uncertainty surrounding the reopening Hormuz
Oil prices rose Monday?on the uncertainty of a reopening the Strait?of Hormuz any time soon. Iran said a?deal with Oman?defining?new shipping?lanes? was in its final phases?but?insisted that the U.S. still must meet other conditions. Brent crude futures increased 91 cents (1.09%) to $84.46 a bar by 0056 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures also rose 61 cents (0.78%) to $78.79 a bar. Both benchmarks fell more than 7% in the last week, on the hope that Iran and Oman would soon reach a deal that would lead to the reopening of Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz carried a fifth of the world's crude oil before the war. Iran claimed on Sunday that it was "finalizing" a deal with Oman, but reiterated that waterway access would be restored only after Washington met certain conditions. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. Abbas Araqchi, Iran's Foreign Minister, said on Sunday that Iran and the U.S. have not begun talks. Tehran won't start any as long as Washington violates a June interim agreement. A Saudi oil plant has been attacked in a "further attack on supply". The Iran-aligned Houthis claimed they 'hit' Saudi Aramco Jazan refinery two days after 'the kingdom signed a pact of defence with Sunni Muslim friends Turkey and Pakistan to respond to the growing regional 'instability' caused by the U.S./Israeli war against 'Shi'ite Iran. Separately, ADNOC of the United Arab Emirates said that 15 of their vessels were attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
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Oil prices rise in the Gulf amid confusion and Asian stock markets edge higher
The Asian share market matched Wall Street's gains on Monday, after a weak U.S. employment report reduced the risk of an increase in borrowing costs near-term. However, a lack progress?in Gulf Peace talks led to oil prices?creeping?higher. Iran announced on Sunday that it was nearing the final stages of a deal that would define new shipping lanes for the Strait of Hormuz. However, the Iranian government reiterated that this waterway will only be reopened once the United States meets other conditions. Brent crude increased by 0.9% to $84.32 per barrel, as the shipping volume through this vital waterway was minimal. U.S. crude rose by 0.7% to $79.74 per barrel. Fuel costs are on the rise again, raising the stakes for Wednesday's U.S. consumer price report. Analysts expect a 0.1% increase in the headline figure and 0.2% for the core. A positive surprise could reignite speculation about a Federal Reserve hike next month. Michael Feroli is the chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan. He said that our forecast of core CPI at 0.22% was "probably not firm enough" to trigger a Fed hike at its September meeting. However, repeated readings closer to 0.3% might do the trick. We are looking for a rebound in the prices of core goods after a period of two months where they have fallen. The futures markets has reduced the probability of a move in September to 44% from 67% one week ago. Wall Street closed at new records on Friday as the pullback in interest rate risk helped Treasuries rally. Japan's Nikkei jumped 0.6% Monday while South Korea gained 0.5%. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan grew by 0.3%. DOUBLE DIGIT GROWTH IN EARNINGS In Europe, EUROSTOXX Futures 50 and DAX Futures both fell by 0.1% while FTSE Futures dropped 0.4%. S&P futures fell 0.1% while Nasdaq was little changed after a week of positive earnings reports. Analysts from BofA stated that earnings per share were up 30% over the previous year, even after Alphabet's and Amazon's investment gains had been excluded. The 76% EPS rate was the highest since 2021. In a note, they said: "AI is still the leader, with median earnings growth of 28%, compared to 12% for non AI related stocks. However, consensus expects AI's growth to slow down to 16% in the next quarter." This week's earnings are lower, but semiconductor maker Applied Materials and networking equipment?maker Cisco as well as cloud infrastructure technology provider CoreWeave all have positive results. Bond markets saw yields for 10-year Treasuries a little higher, at 4.673%. The market is bracing itself for $125 billion of new issuance in the coming week. The U.S. Dollar had fallen sharply due to the drop in yields, and a general improvement of risk. Investors are still wary about intervening if the yen falls too low. The drop in yields has helped gold that does not pay interest to hold its $4,342 per ounce price after it had risen more than 7% over the last week. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam.)
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Taylor Farms recalls salsa and guacamole over salmonella risk
Taylor Farms announced on Sunday that it was recalling from retailers more than 12 'prepared food items' containing jalapenos. This includes salsas and guacamole. The California-based provider said that it had voluntarily pulled products with jalapeno in them due to a recall by Coast Citrus Distributors. It also stated that it was "no more" sourcing the peppers from a Mexican farmer who?supplied Coast Citrus, while it searches for alternative suppliers. The recall is being conducted as U.S. authorities investigate an outbreak of Salmonella linked to imported jalapeno peppers from Mexico. This outbreak, which began earlier this week, sickened 345 people in 27 states and resulted in 36 hospitalizations. Chipotle Mexican Grill, QDOBA and other restaurant chains have stopped using the peppers. Coast Citrus has recalled and informed customers of the remaining product. Taylor 'Farms has not received any reports of illnesses related to the voluntary recalled products, the statement added. Salmonella infections cause diarrhea, fever and stomach cramps, which can be severe for young children, elderly people, or those with weakened immune systems. The recall is being conducted amid increased scrutiny on food safety following an outbreak of cyclosporiasis, a parasitic disease linked to iceberg lettuce served by Taco Bell. It also coincides with renewed attention given to Chipotle’s previous foodborne illness outbreaks.
China's oil imports cut and US exports increase wrongfoot the market bulls
Analysts and traders alike predicted a market Armageddon if U.S. - Iran war continued and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed.
Five weeks after the peace talks stalled and the strait remained largely closed, oil prices did not rise but instead fell to between $100-$110 per barrel. This fall was caused by several factors: Chinese refiners reduced refining and imports, and used crude oil from their tanks instead. The United States' refiners, traders and producers exported more fuel and oil to the global market to fill the supply gap from the Middle East.
The Strait of Hormuz was the route of around 20% of the world's energy before the war. Since then, 14 million barrels of oil per day - 14% of the global supply – have been removed from the market by suppliers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait. The war has caused inflation, slowed down the global economy, and led to demand destruction when high oil prices cause consumers to reduce purchases.
Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank, said: "The fact that the prices are still relatively low, despite what's arguably the biggest supply disruption in history, indicates that demand destruction has been stronger and wider than expected."
According to General Index data, the premium for Middle Eastern crude grades Oman Dubai and Murban to Dubai benchmark was around $9 per barrel this week. This is down from the record-high premium of over $65.50 per barrel that occurred in March. This gave an outright price of $104 per barrel. It was down from almost $170 per barrel in late March. On May 15, the price of U.S. Permian quality?crude sold at the Magellan East Houston terminal (MEH), fell to a $1.20 per barrel premium over U.S. crude oil futures, in line with levels before World War II. U.S. Mars Sour, the flagship U.S. offshore grade, traded at a $4 per barrel premium to U.S. crude futures on May 15, down from a 6-year high of $17.50 in April.
U.S. crude oil exports to Europe also weigh on grades in the Atlantic basin. North Sea Forties crude traded on May 12 at a slight discount to Brent dated, compared with an all-time high $21.50 premium.
Before the start of the conflict on February 28, crude oil benchmarks like Dubai and 'Dated Brent' were hovering at around $70 per barrel.
CHINA REFINES LESS, USES STOCKSPILES Morgan Stanley analysts said in a recent note that the Chinese oil industry has responded to the crisis with a remarkable response. Chinese refiners cut production by nearly a fifth compared to pre-war levels, to 8.4 million barrels per day. They did this either by bringing up scheduled maintenance dates or by cutting fuel runs.
The bank reported that China's net imports of crude oil by sea fell from a year ago to 8.5 millions bpd, or 5.5%. Chinese refiners resold the cargoes that they bought under long-term agreements to refiners outside of China - a rare occurrence - due to low domestic fuel demand and high oil prices, which made resales profitable. Oil imports in Asia, which accounts for 37% of the world's refining production, fell to their lowest level in 10 years last April, as refiners processed stocks that were accumulated before the war at lower prices.
Energy Aspects' data shows that Asian crude processing is expected to drop by 5.6% in May to 28,7 million bpd from March. The International Energy Agency reported that global oil inventories dropped at a record rate of 246 millions barrels between March and April as refiners processed more oil to avoid higher prices on an "undersupplied" market. OECD Asia &?Oceania crude stock levels fell 12% in May to 451'million barrels from their pre-war February levels, according to Energy Aspects.
No one wants to pay more for the next barrel. Energy Aspects analyst George Dix stated that everyone is waiting with hope but eventually all of these stocks will run out.
U.S. Exports Hit Records Producers and traders have increased exports of the United States. The United States is the largest oil producer in the world. U.S. exports have also surpassed records. The U.S. has sold 133,000,000 barrels of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude and fuel exports rose from 11.2 to 13 million barrels per day in the first two week of May.
Kpler data shows that crude oil exports from the SPR were around 308,000 bpd last April, and 281,000 bpd this month. Analysts warn that the lower prices are not sustainable and stocks will drop to minimal levels if Hormuz doesn't reopen within a couple of months.
Aldo spanjer, BNP Paribas' analyst, says that refiners will have to resume purchasing to supply fuel markets, and this would cause prices to rise again. The market is resilient, but it's running on its inventories as it waits for a breakthrough in Hormuz, said Adi Imsirovic. He is a senior associate non-resident at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and an experienced oil trader.
(source: Reuters)