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China's oil imports cut and US exports increase wrongfoot the market bulls

Analysts and traders alike predicted a market Armageddon if U.S. - Iran war continued and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed.

Five weeks after the peace talks stalled and the strait remained largely closed, oil prices did not rise but instead fell to between $100-$110 per barrel. This fall was caused by several factors: Chinese refiners reduced refining and imports, and used crude oil from their tanks instead. The United States' refiners, traders and producers exported more fuel and oil to the global market to fill the supply gap from the Middle East.

The Strait of Hormuz was the route of around 20% of the world's energy before the war. Since then, 14 million barrels of oil per day - 14% of the global supply – have been removed from the market by suppliers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait. The war has caused inflation, slowed down the global economy, and led to demand destruction when high oil prices cause consumers to reduce purchases.

Ole Hansen, analyst at Saxo Bank, said: "The fact that the prices are still relatively low, despite what's arguably the biggest supply disruption in history, indicates that demand destruction has been stronger and wider than expected."

According to General Index data, the premium for Middle Eastern crude grades Oman Dubai and Murban to Dubai benchmark was around $9 per barrel this week. This is down from the record-high premium of over $65.50 per barrel that occurred in March. This gave an outright price of $104 per barrel. It was down from almost $170 per barrel in late March. On May 15, the price of U.S. Permian quality?crude sold at the Magellan East Houston terminal (MEH), fell to a $1.20 per barrel premium over U.S. crude oil futures, in line with levels before World War II. U.S. Mars Sour, the flagship U.S. offshore grade, traded at a $4 per barrel premium to U.S. crude futures on May 15, down from a 6-year high of $17.50 in April.

U.S. crude oil exports to Europe also weigh on grades in the Atlantic basin. North Sea Forties crude traded on May 12 at a slight discount to Brent dated, compared with an all-time high $21.50 premium.

Before the start of the conflict on February 28, crude oil benchmarks like Dubai and 'Dated Brent' were hovering at around $70 per barrel.

CHINA REFINES LESS, USES STOCKSPILES Morgan Stanley analysts said in a recent note that the Chinese oil industry has responded to the crisis with a remarkable response. Chinese refiners cut production by nearly a fifth compared to pre-war levels, to 8.4 million barrels per day. They did this either by bringing up scheduled maintenance dates or by cutting fuel runs.

The bank reported that China's net imports of crude oil by sea fell from a year ago to 8.5 millions bpd, or 5.5%. Chinese refiners resold the cargoes that they bought under long-term agreements to refiners outside of China - a rare occurrence - due to low domestic fuel demand and high oil prices, which made resales profitable. Oil imports in Asia, which accounts for 37% of the world's refining production, fell to their lowest level in 10 years last April, as refiners processed stocks that were accumulated before the war at lower prices.

Energy Aspects' data shows that Asian crude processing is expected to drop by 5.6% in May to 28,7 million bpd from March. The International Energy Agency reported that global oil inventories dropped at a record rate of 246 millions barrels between March and April as refiners processed more oil to avoid higher prices on an "undersupplied" market. OECD Asia &?Oceania crude stock levels fell 12% in May to 451'million barrels from their pre-war February levels, according to Energy Aspects.

No one wants to pay more for the next barrel. Energy Aspects analyst George Dix stated that everyone is waiting with hope but eventually all of these stocks will run out.

U.S. Exports Hit Records Producers and traders have increased exports of the United States. The United States is the largest oil producer in the world. U.S. exports have also surpassed records. The U.S. has sold 133,000,000 barrels of its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude and fuel exports rose from 11.2 to 13 million barrels per day in the first two week of May.

Kpler data shows that crude oil exports from the SPR were around 308,000 bpd last April, and 281,000 bpd this month. Analysts warn that the lower prices are not sustainable and stocks will drop to minimal levels if Hormuz doesn't reopen within a couple of months.

Aldo spanjer, BNP Paribas' analyst, says that refiners will have to resume purchasing to supply fuel markets, and this would cause prices to rise again. The market is resilient, but it's running on its inventories as it waits for a breakthrough in Hormuz, said Adi Imsirovic. He is a senior associate non-resident at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and an experienced oil trader.

(source: Reuters)