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Despite the closure of Hormuz, spot crude premiums are down from their record highs

Analysts and traders said that spot premiums on physical crude are down from the record highs they reached during the Iran war. This is because refiners have been drawing on their inventories to make up for lost Middle East supplies and have reduced processing. Citi analysts say that since the 'U.S. and Israel war against Iran, which began on February 28th, caused a near-total closing of the Strait of Hormuz the global'market has lost access to 500,000,000 barrels of crude oil and refined products. This led to a spike in prices due to panic buying. However, the increased prices have also destroyed demand among consumers and refiners.

Refiners searched the world for alternatives and paid premiums. Some grades reached record highs earlier this month of over $30 per barrel. Premiums are decreasing as refiners opt to reduce production and focus on barrels sanctioned previously, while Chinese state-owned companies Sinopec, and PetroChina, tap commercial reserves and trade spot market crude.

Analysts at Kpler said that "Asian demand has started to ease, as refiners reduce their production, moving the market from panic-buying and towards more selective procurement. Russian barrels dominate incremental demand."

This is feeding into the Atlantic Basin where a weaker Asian pull coupled with rising supply puts pressure on medium sweet and light sweet differentials.

While strategic reserve releases and inventory drawdowns provide a buffer, they are insufficient to cover the 15-million-barrel-per-day loss ?in Middle East crude supply, meaning prolonged disruption from the Strait of Hormuz closure will continue to exert upward price pressure.

June Goh is a senior analyst with Sparta Commodities. She said that the correction has brought prices to "affordable levels". "The physical shortage of crude oil in the market is still present, so premiums will remain higher than pre-crisis levels. She said that it shouldn't reach the record panicked levels we experienced previously.

RESERVE RELEASES, FALLING PREMIUMS

Sinopec will receive approximately 1 million barrels per day of crude oil from its reserves between April and June, according to two traders who are familiar with the situation. This will allow its trading arm Unipec the opportunity to sell some West African, Brazilian, and Canadian cargoes on the spot market in this month.

CNOOC and PetroChina have also exported Canadian crude from the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) in this month.

Requests for comment from the companies were not immediately responded to.

Two trading sources said that earlier this month, Canada’s Access Western blend exported through TMX was sold at a record-breaking $8 a barrel for ICE Brent to be delivered to Asia in July. However, the price dropped to $4 last week.

The premiums on European and West African crudes have also weakened. Ekofisk, a North Sea crude, was offered Tuesday at a price of less than $10 per barrel compared to Brent dated two weeks earlier, a reduction of half. The premiums for African grades like Forcados Bonny Light, and Qua Iboe have fallen to $7.75 per barrel compared to just over $10 in mid-April.

Brazilian crude premiums also fell after the offers?rose above $30 a barrel in early this month, traders who are familiar with the market reported.

They said that Formosa Petrochemical, a Taiwanese company, purchased 2 million barrels on a delivered-ex-ship basis of Brazilian crude for a premium between $8 and $9.00 per barrel compared to Brent dated. The traders reported that Indian refiners purchased Brazilian crude at a premium of almost $5 compared to Brent. Middle East crude prices that reached record highs in March have also fallen sharply this past month, which may lead Saudi Aramco?to cut term prices for the month of June. The premiums for WTI Midland oil from the U.S., delivered to Asia, have fallen from record highs near $40 per barrel over Dubai quotes. Two traders in this market say that recent deals for August delivery to Japan are at $20 to $22 - similar to a month earlier.

WTI was trading at $7.40 per barrel above Brent in Europe on Tuesday. This is a significant increase from the $22 premium that WTI had two weeks ago.

Spot premiums also fall as consumers'simply cut back on consumption' of a variety of oil products, including naphtha, for petrochemical manufacturers, liquefied petroleum gases for cooking, diesel, for hauling cargoes, and fuel oil, for ocean-going vessels.

Morgan Stanley estimates demand destruction at 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter. This will lead to an 800,000-bpd drop in 2026 total oil consumption. It would be the first decline since the COVID-19 epidemic.

(source: Reuters)