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The AI dip is not done in the morning bid of Europe
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets. The tech stocks are headed for a shaky finish in what could be the biggest market decline since the turmoil around U.S. Tariffs seven months ago. Softbank Group shares, the Japanese investment conglomerate known for its high-risk and high-reward technology bets, are down by around 20% this week, the largest one-week decline since the pandemic. The Nasdaq has fallen more than 2% in this week, and futures have been under pressure during the Asia session. Japan and South Korea, which are tech-heavy markets, fell. These are not major drops, but they do represent a modest drop in markets that have been booming for several months. Nasdaq has recovered 50% since April's lows. The pullback has been unsettling because there was no clear trigger or reason why AI shares broke their stride. This raises the possibility that investors are beginning to doubt the rally. BofA surveyed more than half of fund managers in October and found that they believe we are in a AI equity bubble. Markets' negative reaction to AI plans at Meta, and the outwardly strong results of Palantir Technologies may have given some indication. Herald van der Linde is HSBC’s chief Asia equity strategy. He has been following the markets for several decades. He said that high values are like the blue sky. "The minute there is one tiny black cloud, the sky will no longer be blue. If you have high valuations, even small news or changes in sentiment can cause the markets to fall a lot. The U.S. shutdown means that there won't be any U.S. employment data in the afternoon, so investors will have to make their own decisions about the changing mood of the market. The Chinese trade figures for October were surprisingly weak, with a drop of 1.1% in exports denominated in dollars. However, the outlook should stabilize following the recent trade truce with the U.S. The focus will be on the equities market until the weekend. Bond markets, however, have taken the private data indicating a surge of U.S. layoffs to increase the likelihood that interest rates could be cut. In the Asia session, safe assets like the Swiss franc, yen and gold were in high demand. The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Friday. - German trade data - Canadian jobs figures U.S. equity session
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Scientists blame rising temperatures for the destruction caused by Typhoon Kalmaegi in Southeast Asia.
Scientists warn that extreme weather events will only increase in frequency as temperatures continue to rise. At least 188 people were killed by Typhoon Kalmaegi in the Philippines. It also caused extensive damage to farmland and infrastructure across the archipelago. After landing in central Vietnam on Thursday night, the storm destroyed homes and uprooted many trees. The path of destruction of Kalmaegi coincides with the meeting of more than 190 delegates in Brazil's rainforest city of Belem for the latest round in climate talks. Researchers claim that the failure of leaders around the world to control greenhouse gas emission has resulted in increasingly violent storms. Ben Clarke is an extreme weather researcher from London's Grantham Institute on Climate Change and Environment. He said that the sea surface temperatures over the South China Sea and the Western North Pacific are both unusually warm. The trend in sea surface temperature is clearly linked to global warming. WARMER WATERS PACK 'FUEL' INTO CYCLONES Scientists say that while it's not easy to link a specific weather event with climate change, in general, higher sea surface temperatures accelerate the evaporation and add more "fuel" to tropical cyclones. Gianmarco Megaldo, researcher at National University of Singapore, said that climate change increases typhoon intensities primarily through warming ocean surface temperature and increasing atmospheric moisture. He added that "although this doesn't mean every typhoon is going to get stronger, it does increase the probability of storms with greater intensity and heavier rains, as well as stronger winds." Mengaldo said that while the data doesn't indicate that tropical storms have become more frequent, the intensity has increased. He co-authored a report on the role climate change played in the September Typhoon Ragasa. In the Philippines, six deadly typhoons hit in one month. Four tropical cyclones formed in November in a rare event, suggesting storms are now occurring over shorter periods. Drubajyoti Samantha, a climate researcher at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, said that even if the total number of cyclones doesn't increase dramatically each year, their proximity to seasons and impact potential may increase. He added that "Kalmaegi serves as a reminder of this emerging risk pattern." BACK-TOBACK SEVERE STORMS CAUSING MORE DESTRUCTION Feng Xiangbo is a tropical storm scientist at the University of Reading in Britain. He said that "back-to-back" storms could cause more damage. This is because the soils are already saturated and rivers are full. Infrastructure is also weakened. Even a weak storm can cause catastrophic damage at this time. Feng and Mengaldo both warned that other regions may also be at risk, as storms could form in new locations and follow different paths and intensify. Feng said that recent studies show the coastal areas affected by tropical cyclones are growing significantly due to storm surges and ocean wave growth. This, along with the mean sea level increase, poses a serious threat to low lying areas, especially in the Philippines and on Vietnam's shallow coast shelves. (Reporting and editing by Saad Saeed; David Stanway)
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China's rare earth exports in October rose 9% compared to September
Customs data released on Friday showed that China's exports of rare earths increased by 9% from September. This was the first increase month-over-month after three consecutive months of declines. Data from the General Administration of Customs revealed that China, the largest exporter of rare earths, sold 4,343.5 tons of rare Earths in October. Data was aggregated so it wasn't clear which countries and products had higher imports for October. On November 20, a complete breakdown of the data will be released. China announced on October 9 a major expansion of its export controls for rare earths, which were first implemented in April. The new restrictions cover five new elements as well as dozens of pieces refining technologies. After U.S. president Donald Trump and his Chinese equivalent Xi Jinping's meeting in Busan, South Korea on October 30, Trump claimed that they had reached an agreement. Agreement Keep rare earth exports flowing from China. Beijing announced shortly afterward that it would suspend the export controls of October 9 for one year. However, the April restrictions - which caused shortages in the global auto supply chain - were still in place. Exports for the first half of this year were 52,699.2 tonnes, an increase of 10.5% over the same period last year. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Thomas Derpinghaus).
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Gold prices rise as the dollar falls and US rate-cut betting increases
Gold prices rose Friday, as the dollar fell after U.S. job reports showed weakness in the labour market. This boosted expectations for another U.S. rate cut. A prolonged government shutdown also increased demand for safe havens. As of 0341 GMT spot gold was up by 0.4%, at $3,994.03 an ounce. However, it is set to lose 0.3% per week. Bullion is down nearly 8% from its record high of $4381.21 set on October 20. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery were up 0.3% to $4,004.40 an ounce. Data showed that the U.S. economy lost jobs in October, mainly due to losses in the retail and government sectors. Cost-cutting and artificial intelligence adoption by companies also led to an increase in announced layoffs. Soni Kumari is a commodity analyst with ANZ. She said: "The private employment data still indicates that a rate reduction in December is probable and that's the reason gold prices are receiving some sort of support." Investors, lacking official data about the U.S. labor market, seized on signs of weakness from private sector surveys. Rate cuts are more likely to occur when the job market is weak. The market participants see a 69% probability of a Fed interest rate cut in December. This is up from 60% the day before. Last week, the Fed cut rates and Chairman Jerome Powell said it could be the final reduction in borrowing costs this year. Kumari said that the focus now is on macro numbers, and when will the U.S. government shutdown end. This is also helping to boost demand for safe-haven gold. The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has been caused by a congressional impasse. Investors and the Fed, who rely heavily on data, have had to rely instead on indicators from the private sector. Gold that does not yield tends to perform well in low interest rate environments and times of economic uncertainty. Other than that, silver spot rose 0.7% per ounce to $48.31, but it was headed for a loss of 0.7% for the week. Platinum fell 0.4% to 1,534.21, down almost 2%, while palladium rose by 0.3% to 1,379.33 and is heading for a gain of 0.5% for the weekly.
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Exxon Signs Deal for Natural Gas Exploration Offshore Greece
Exxon Mobil has signed a deal to explore for natural gas offshore Greece, increasing the U.S. presence in the eastern Mediterranean just as the Trump administration seeks to replace Russian energy flows into Europe.The United States, which holds vast reserves of domestic natural gas, wants to provide a larger share of Europe's energy mix via liquefied natural gas as the European Union seeks to phase out Russian gas imports in the coming years."We have a tremendous opportunity right now to displace all of the Russian gas - every last molecule - out of western Europe," U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told a conference in Athens on Thursday."Every molecule that Russia does not sell into Europe…stays in the ground, it does not go into the pocket of Russia’s war machine."Under Thursday's deal, Exxon will partner with Energean, whose flagship gas fields are located offshore Israel, and Helleniq to explore for natural gas in Block 2 offshore Western Greece, the companies said on Thursday."This significant exploration agreement paves the way for potential future exploratory drilling investments in the 2027 timeframe," said John Ardill, Exxon's vice president of global exploration.GAS COULD FEED INTO TAP PIPELINEThe first exploratory drilling is expected in late 2026 or early 2027. Exxon Mobil expects the first gas from the project in the early 2030s if all goes well, Ardill told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in Athens.The project will require an investment of between $50 million and $100 million, he said.Greece, which produces small volumes of oil and relies on hefty gas imports for power generation and domestic consumption, has been keen to explore for gas and bolster its role as a transit route for Europe.Last month it named a consortium of Chevron and Helleniq as the preferred bidder for exploration in other offshore blocks.Gas could be fed into the Greek domestic market but, given the project's proximity to southern Italy, it could also join the TAP pipeline system that carries gas from central Asia to Italy, Energean Chief Executive Mathios Rigas told Reuters in call.U.S. OFFICIALS LAUD NEW DEALExxon will take a 60% stake in the concession, while Energean will have 30% and Helleniq Energy 10%. Energean will run the project during exploration and Exxon will take over if exploration drilling proves successful, the companies said.In July, Europe pledged to buy $250 billion a year in U.S. energy, from oil and liquefied natural gas to nuclear technology, for the next three years.U.S. officials who attended the signing ceremony at the Athens conference lauded Thursday's deal."America is back and drilling in the Ionian Sea," said the United States' new ambassador to Greece, Kimberly Guilfoyle.(Reuters)
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Oil to suffer second consecutive weekly loss due to lingering supply concerns
After three days of declining prices, oil prices rose on Friday on concerns about an excess of supply and a slowing in demand in the U.S. Prices are still set to fall for a second consecutive week. Brent crude futures increased 28 cents or 0.44% to $63.66 per barrel at 0421 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was up 29 cents or 0.49% at $59.72 per barrel. Brent and WTI will fall by about 2% in the coming week. This is the second consecutive week that Brent and WTI have fallen, due to major global producers increasing their output. Tony Sycamore, IG Markets' analyst, said that the price drop was triggered by a sudden 5.2 million barrel U.S. stock buildup which reignited fears of oversupply. He added that "risk-aversion flows have boosted the dollar, and the U.S. Government Shutdown continues to cloud the economic activity." The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude stock levels rose more than anticipated due to higher imports, reduced refining, and a decline in gasoline and distillate stocks. The oil prices were also influenced by the concerns over the economic impact of the longest shutdown of government in US history. Private reports indicate a weaker U.S. labour market in October, according to the Trump administration. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies decided Sunday to slightly increase production in December. The group has also decided to halt further increases in the first quarter next year due to concerns about a glut of supply. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, responded to the oversupplied market by reducing prices on its crude in December. The sanctions imposed by the EU and US on Russia and Iran also affect supplies to China and India - the two largest importers in terms of volume. This provides some support for international markets. Gunvor, a Swiss commodity trader, announced on Thursday that it had withdrawn its offer to purchase the foreign assets owned by the Russian energy company Lukoil. The U.S. Treasury had called Gunvor "Russia's puppet" and indicated Washington was against the deal. Vandana Hari is the founder of Vanda Insights, a provider of oil market analyses. She said that Gunvor's decision to cancel its purchase of Lukoil assets suggests that the US will continue its maximum pressure campaign on Russia and could enforce strict sanctions against Rosneft or Lukoil. She added, "The support for the bill is fragile...the oversupply narrative may creep back to influence sentiment." China's crude oil imports in October, the largest oil importer in the world Then, there was up Data from the General Administration of Customs revealed that crude oil production was up 2.3% in September, and 8.2% compared to a year ago, at 48.36 millions tons. This is due to high refinery utilisation rates. Mohi Naira in New Delhi, Florence Tan in Singapore and Thomas Derpinghaus in Berlin; editing by Christian Schmollinger and Thomas Derpinghaus)
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China's imports of iron ore have surpassed 100 million tonnes for the fifth consecutive month
China's imports of iron ore in October were above 100 million tonnes for the fifth consecutive month. This was due to robust shipments, boosted by rising prices and a resilient demand by the world's biggest consumer. The General Administration of Customs reported on Friday that China imported 111.3 millions metric tons of this key ingredient for steelmaking last month. The volume in October was higher than the 103.84 millions tons recorded in the same month of 2024. It was also the second highest total for the year so far, despite the fall of 4.32% since the record high monthly in September. Analyst Xinli Chen of broker China Futures said that major suppliers increased shipments in order to meet their annual targets. Higher ore prices last year also encouraged high-cost mines to increase production. Prices of seaborne iron ore Bets on the outcome of a deal between China and America helped to boost gains in October by nearly 4%. Analysts said that high-cost miner's were encouraged to increase production when prices remained above the psychologically important level of $100. This was especially true if the outlook for next year's price was negative. Data from the consultancy Mysteel revealed that the demand for hot metals in China remained strong, with an average daily output of 2.4 million tonnes, which is 3% more than in the same period of 2024. China's imports of iron ore in the first 10 month of 2025 increased by 0.7% compared to the same period the year before, reaching 1,028.9 millions tons. The persistently high imports of ore led to an accumulation in portside inventories that has weighed down on prices in November. According to Mysteel, stocks at major Chinese port cities have increased by 4% on a month-to-month basis to 145.42 millions tons. Chu predicted that the inventory would reach 150 million tonnes by 2025. Steel Trade Last month, China's exports of steel fell by 6.6% compared to the previous month. They were also down 12.5% compared to a year ago. With the October shipments, the total year-to date exports reached 97.74 millions tons. This is a record for the period and represents an increase of 6.6%. Guiqiu Zhao, an analyst with broker Jinrui Futures, said that "China's export prices were competitive, which contributed to the resilience of outbound shipments." Reporting by Sam Li and Amy Lv; Editing by Lincoln Feast.
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China's copper imports fall in October due to high prices
China's imports of copper dropped in October according to official data released on Friday. Consumers were hesitant to restock due high prices for this metal, which is used in construction and power. According to the General Administration of Customs, copper imports fell to 438,000 tons from 485,000 tons one month earlier. This represents a 9.7% decline. Imports of unwrought copper, as well as copper products, into China, which is the world's biggest consumer, include anodes and refined metals, alloys, and semi-finished products. The London Metal Exchange benchmark copper for three months rose by 6.03% in the last month. Late October, it reached a record-high of $11,200 a ton. The gains in copper came amid fears of a supply shortage due to mine disruptions worldwide, including Freeport McMoRan’s force majeure situation at its Grasberg mining site in Indonesia. Miners Glencore Anglo American and Codelco both reported lower copper production during the first nine months 2025. High prices in China slowed down the buying appetite. Yangshan copper premium The price of copper in China, which is reflected by the amount of copper imported, fell to $36 per ton at the end October from $58 at the end September. China imported 4,46 million tonnes of copper in the period from January to October. This is down from 4,60 million tons for the same period last year. Imports of copper concentrate, which is used in smelters to produce metal, fell from 2.59 million metric tonnes a month ago to 2.45 millions metric tons. China imported 25,09 million tons (up from 23,33 million tons) of copper concentrate in the period January-October, compared to the same period last year. (Reporting and editing by Lewis Jackson and Dylan Duan.
China's October coal imports are down 10% from the same month last year
Customs data released on Friday showed that China's imports of coal in October were down 10% from the previous year, due to a holiday which reduced the number working days during the month.
Imports will be supported in 2025 by the winter restocking of products during the last two months.
Imports in October fell from 46.25 to 41.74 millions metric tons, a drop of almost ten percent. Imports in September reached 46 million metric tonnes, a record high for nine months.
Feng Dongbin is vice-general manager of Fenwei Digital Information Technology. He said that imports decreased sequentially, and also from the previous year, due to domestic holidays. However, they remained relatively high.
This year's Mid-Autumn Festival in China coincided with National Day, which resulted in a longer holiday than usual - from 1-8 October - as opposed to seven days last time.
Feng stated that domestic coal prices have risen more quickly and sharply than those of seaborne coal due to the strong buying enthusiasm among domestic buyers and traders.
The continued price difference between imported and domestic coal has created import opportunities, and the import volume is expected to continue high in the final two months of this year.
Buyers stock up on coal before winter, when the demand for heating fuels a spike in prices.
The data showed that China's imports of coal fell by 11% in the first 10 month of the year compared to a year ago, reaching 387.62 millions tons. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Colleen howe)
(source: Reuters)