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Andy Home: China's aluminium dominance is not limited to its home market.

Andy Home: China's aluminium dominance is not limited to its home market.
Andy Home: China's aluminium dominance is not limited to its home market.

China's aluminum smelters are booming this year. Shanghai's aluminium price has risen to three-month highs. Raw material costs have been historically low, and margins remain strong.

Each producer is encouraged to run their plant at full capacity.

Indeed, national output has exceeded Beijing's 45-million-metric-ton capacity cap for the past couple of months, as smelters flex their full production ?potential.

However, the mandated ceiling remains in place.

Chinese producers have embraced this reality and are investing heavily in smelter projects abroad.

While Donald Trump claims that the United States needs more aluminum "desperately", the world's biggest producer consolidates its position as the dominant player in the global supply chains.

At the Limit

China's cap on capacity dates back to 2017 when the sector was experiencing a boom. It seemed that everyone wanted to build an aluminium smelter. This put a greater strain on the power system of China.

Beijing marked a line of 45 million tons in the sand.

Wen Xianjin is the vice-chairman of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. He said that by the end of this year, the authorities would have stopped 5.37 million tonnes of "illegal capacity" and 6.19 millions tons of "noncompliant capacity".

The new rule required that, if you want to build a greenfield plant with the same capacity as an existing one, you must close it.

Since then, the regulations have been?enforced with a stern hand and led to an upgrade in smelter technologies as new plants have replaced older ones.

This technology is being used now.

According to consultants AZ Global "the physical limit of an aluminium smelter is not immutable". Operating improvements can easily increase actual output above nameplate capacity.

This collective capacity creep is the reason why national production has been above 45 million tons since March.

AZ Global estimates China's smelters were operating at?99.7% their actual capacity of 45.26 millions tons in August.

Ironically, China's smelters benefit from their own capacity limit and the lack of a "complementary" limit on domestic production.

The price of the main input for?the smelting is at a bombastic level.

It is not important whether China's smelters are able to maintain these levels of capacity usage, but any potential production increase is very limited.

Powering Up in Indonesia

Chinese producers now understand that they must go overseas if they wish to expand.

The majority of investment has been directed to Indonesia where aluminium smelters are located in the same industrial parks built by China for nickel processing.

Tsingshan Group has partnered with Chinese aluminium producers Huafon Group (the powerhouse behind Indonesia’s nickel boom) and Xinfa Group (the Xinfa Group) to construct the Hua Chin smelter and Juwan smelter, respectively.

Existing infrastructure in power and logistics has enabled rapid construction.

Hua Chin's annual capacity was 480,000 tons last year. In May, it applied to list the "HCAI" trademark at the London Metal Exchange.

Juwan exported its first aluminum to the U.S.A. in March. PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia - in which China's Zhejianglygend Mining has a minority interest - did the same thing in June.

CAPACITY SWAP

Other Chinese aluminum smelter project are popping up in other countries.

Xinfa, a Kazakhstani company, is preparing a full cycle industrial park in Kazakhstan with a planned?aluminum capacity of 2.4 millions tons?per annum. East Hope Group, meanwhile, is working on an integrated project that runs from bauxite to aluminium.

A Chinese consortium led Hebei Huatong Wire and Cables Group supports a new smelter at the Barra do Dande free-trade zone in Angola.

The first phase of the 120,000-ton project was built using equipment that had been transferred from China. This was likely an older smelter which was replaced by a newer one.

China's aluminium market reach is extended further in the West thanks to its location along the Atlantic.

Due to the Iran 'war, the Gulf has lost its production. This ratio has risen to 63%.

As long as the West is unable to respond in a similar manner, this new generation of Chinese backed smelters can cement their dominance.

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(source: Reuters)