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Republicans could have gerrymandered themselves into a Latino problem the size of Texas

Republicans could have gerrymandered themselves into a Latino problem the size of Texas
Republicans could have gerrymandered themselves into a Latino problem the size of Texas

South Texas is a long stretch of highways with flat terrain, dotted with pump jacks and mesquite trees. Gas stations in South Texas have prices that voters say shouldn't be so high. This territory went heavily for Donald Trump in the 2024 election, but could change again in 2026.

The trip took us from the outskirts San Antonio to McAllen via historic ranchlands and more than 30 Latinos who all had the same refrain: "as president, Trump missed a great opportunity to lower prices in this vast expanse where trucks and beef barbacoa reign supreme."

Many people are not convinced that the Republican Party cares about them. Frustration over Trump's immigration policy and economic pressures is on the rise, which exposes cracks in what Republican officials had hoped would be a durable political realignment of Latino Americans. According to the latest tracking poll by /Ipsos, Trump's nationwide approval rating has dropped to 33%. This is the lowest level since he returned to office.

This uncertainty is a problem to Texas Republicans who redrew the congressional maps last summer, betting that the Latinos who helped Trump win in 2024 would stay in their column.

David Wasserman is an elections analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Texas Republicans wanted to change several districts to be more favorable for their candidates in the 2026 elections. They based their changes on Trump’s performance from 2024, which was the best showing by a Republican candidate among Latino voters this century. Rather than dilute Latino voters' power, many newly-configured districts remained heavily Latino. This included Texas's 15th and 35th Congressional district.

Latinos make up 74.5% in District 15. According to the redistricting study by the state, Latinos make up 51.6% of District 35. Both districts are more competitive. The political forecasting site Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the 15th district as a Tossup, while the 35th district is rated as Lean Republican. Cook Political rates 15th District as Lean Republican.

A Texas Southern University survey conducted in August 2026 found that Democratic candidates were leading in three South Texas congressional districts, including the fifteenth. Nearly 50 interviews with analysts, activists and pollsters, as well as voters, support the notion that some Latinos who voted Trump in South Texas are open to Democrats.

Saul Guajardo of McAllen is one of them. He voted three times for Trump.

He said, "I was a conservative and far-right." "I am more willing than ever to vote Democrat."

Guajardo said he and his wife Terrie live paycheck-to-paycheck, despite steady incomes. According to AAA, the average cost of gasoline in McAllen was $4.09 per gallon on September 22.

Terrie said Trump’s "crackdown" on immigration enforcement was too harsh, because it has permanently divided some families who are trying to build a new life in the U.S.

Many Latinos have a negative view of Republicans, according to a recent poll. A survey of 1,000 Latinos conducted by?Cook Political for TelevisaUnivision and?Cook Political in September found that 18% who voted for Trump do not support him anymore, and nearly two-thirds would vote less for candidates who support Trump’s immigration policies.

Both parties see these shifts as the reason for both the promise and danger of Latino voters. They have shown less loyalty to parties than they do to elected officials who promise them economic improvement.

"You're not talking to a brick wall, because they will all vote Democrat or Republican," said Daniel Alegre CEO of Spanish language media company TelevisaUnivision. "They will all vote for the candidate who makes their lives better."

Republicans reject the idea that Latinos are turning away from them. Christian Martinez, National Republican Congressional Committee Hispanic Press Secretary, said Democrats responded to the decline in support from Hispanics with "denials, excuses and condescension" instead of addressing the concerns that drove working-class voters towards Republicans.

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Redistricting could backfire in the 15th District. In its re-configured form, it would have given Trump a 18-point victory in 2024 compared to a 2-point margin in 2020, and a 14-point defeat in his first presidential election in 2016.

Bobby Pulido is a singer who has been a celebrity long before he entered politics. His hit song, "Desvelado", has been streamed on Spotify for nearly 610,000,000 times, and he's won two Latin Grammy Awards.

His economic message and cross-over appeal has made the district one of the most closely watched races in the state. In a late August Texas Southern University survey, Pulido led De La Cruz by five percentage points.

Pulido, dressed in a blue jeans, cowboy boots and a cowboy cap, travels around South Texas at weekends to attend quinceaneras, the traditional Latino 15th birthday party for girls. He often ends his surprise -- and free -- visits with a gift: a white cap with pink lettering that reads "Make Quinceaneras great again."

Pulido claimed that Democrats lost support with Latinos in South Texas due to their failure to address economic concerns, which are most important to working families. He also said that both major parties misunderstand the electorate.

Pulido said, "As a Democrat I believe that we misunderstand Hispanic voters and, frankly, I don't think Republicans get it either." "We're not looking for handouts. We're proud." "We just want to work, make something for our families and work towards making our children prosper better than we did."

Pulido surprised Melody Silva, her family and 200 friends who had gathered to celebrate Melody's quinceanera on August 1. They cheered louder after he announced his candidacy for Congress and screamed at him when he appeared on a stairway.

Michael Silva, Melody Silva's father, a McAllen police officer said: "He has such deep roots in the Valley." "I feel that he is not only representing the Valley but also the raza - the people - for us, locals."

His name recognition appears to be his strongest suit. Pulido was a familiar name to the dozen voters interviewed at a Beeville outdoor market held monthly, about 180 miles north.

The campaign of De?La?Cruz did not respond when asked for comment.

Ramon Barrera (36), known on social media as "The Texas Tea Guy", sees a shift in the sentiment. He shares short TikTok posts "spilling tea" on politics and community issues. He also drives his Dodge Ram 3500 around South Texas to meet locals while looking for old furniture.

He described himself as conservative, but was not firmly aligned to either party. He described Trump's presidency as a disappointment. This opened the door for him vote for Gina Hinojosa and Pulido, both Democrats running against Greg Abbott who is seeking a 4th consecutive term.

He said, "The S&P looks great but our wallets do not."

(source: Reuters)