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Investors start to worry about 6% Treasury yields as 5% Treasury yields begin to lose their shock value.
Years ago, 5% of the benchmark US 10-year Treasury?yield had been regarded as the point where global financial markets began to experience turbulence. This threshold is becoming less of a ceiling, and more like a waypoint. This month's breaching of 5%, something that has only happened briefly in recent decades, has forced investors into a?unsettling thought:?What happens if 6% becomes the number that keeps them up at night? This theory hasn't been tested enough by the latest move above 5%. Mike Bell, BlueBay Asset Management’s head of Market Strategy, says that it was always a psychological indicator and not a tripwire. Bell explained that people think there is a magic number at which Treasury yields become a problem. "But it's not an absolute number but a relative one," Bell said. It is important to compare Treasury yields with other investment metrics. This includes the earnings yield of stocks. Bell claims that the relationship is approaching an inflection, which could set up a selloff of stocks. The past offers some guidance. MSCI's world stock index lost half its value when the 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5%. This was right before the global financial crisis. It suffered a similar decline less than a decennium earlier, when a 6.8% increase helped burst the dotcom boom. Analysts at JP Morgan say that a "key shift" in the global economy is one reason why the pain point could be back above 5%. AI, healthcare, and services are playing a larger role. These firms continue to spend and expand, regardless of how high borrowing costs are. JP Morgan stated that the traditional interest rate channel "looks materially less bound" and the "breaking-threshold" of the stock markets could be "significantly higher, possibly?in a range of 5.5%-6.0%", referring to the views expressed by some of its major investors during one of their most recent conferences. REPRICING - a firm price A shift from 5% up to 6% in the $29 trillion Treasury market would be a 'profound adjustment of the global capital cost. A Treasury yield of 6% would indicate either significant higher inflation expectations, growing concern about US fiscal sustainability or a conviction that rates will remain high for years. Austan Goolsbee, a Federal Reserve policymaker, said that he did not know if markets would react differently if 5% yields were extended for a longer period than in the past. Invesco's global head of asset-allocation research, Paul Jackson, explained that investors are focused on Treasury yields because they represent the risk-free benchmark for the world. At above 5%, investors have the opportunity to lock in their highest returns since 2007. Jackson's calculations show that world stocks begin to fall when the 10-year bond yield has traded at 4.72% on average for 12 months, and then increases. The tipping point is still a long way off - the average 12-month yield is around 4.34%. But Jackson has already started to reduce his stock holdings and put some of his money in government bonds, hoping to take advantage of the high yields. He said that if Treasury yields continue to rise, the risk is that in a year's time the stock market will be lower. Emerging Questions When US yields rise, emerging markets that have been on a "hot streak" in recent years are usually "among the first victims". Dollar-denominated investments become more appealing when Treasury returns are higher. This drains capital from EM economies, and can push hard-up nations into crisis if their dollar-denominated loans spiral out of control. Last week, data on investment?flows showed the largest exodus of EM bond funds for months. Billions were also withdrawn from equity fund. The issuance of emerging-market sovereign bonds has also been notably lighter this month. Alison Shimada is the Head of Total Emerging Markets Equity at Allspring Global Investments. She said that while the picture was not ideal, it was still "constructive" because for now, nothing "horribly went wrong". The biggest psychological risk is the most likely. Investors will begin to question whether 6% can be achieved, and the discussion will move beyond a temporary increase in yields. The debate shifts to the possibility that?the era of abundant liquidity and ultra cheap money is over, forcing global asset values to adjust to a permanent higher cost capital. Premier Miton CIO Neil Birrell stated that while the stock market is not showing signs of collapse right now, this could be because investors haven't yet plugged in 5% plus yields to their long-term profit forecasting model. Birrell stated that "the markets appear fine until everyone runs their valuation models again." "The numbers will come out in the end."
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Microsoft invests $10 billion plus in the Gulf with a focus on resilience
Microsoft plans to invest over $10 billion in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar between now and 2030. This will include cloud and AI infrastructure. As the Iran War continues, the US tech giant is making digital resilience an important part of its strategy in the region. Brad Smith, Vice-Chair and President of Microsoft, said that the investment was a reflection of both the "ongoing construction of infrastructure" and the "expansion of operations in the area". Gulf countries are investing billions in AI to diversify away from oil and natural gas. They believe that the abundance of land?and cheap energy will attract hyperscalers like Microsoft. The war and its uncertainty, as well as the attacks on data centres like Amazon's AWS facilities in Bahrain and the UAE, pose challenges. "We are sustaining the investments that we had planned to make before this conflict began, and in fact?we are adding to them. Smith said that the spending plan was aggressive. Microsoft, he said, had provided support to local partners, including digital resilience assessments even during the first week of conflict that began on 28 February. DIGITAL RESILIENCE Microsoft has now begun to assist the Gulf States in areas like readiness and data protection, as part of an initiative for digital resilience. Smith stated that it was not possible to provide a breakdown by country or project of the planned investments. Smith cited factors such as security. The UAE has been largely spared attacks since May. However, other Gulf countries continue to be threatened. Microsoft plans to invest $400 million by 2030 in the Middle East for subsea and terrestrial connectivity. Microsoft is also strengthening its partnership with national AI firms, such as Abu Dhabi's G42. Microsoft has invested $1.5 billion in the company for a minor stake, which will be?transferred to Microsoft by 2024. This will give Microsoft a seat on the board currently held by Smith. Microsoft works with Saudi Arabia’s Humain and Qatar’s Qai “in selected areas which are priorities for them,” he said. He noted that Microsoft does not plan to invest capital in these firms.
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Meloni's nuclear energy plan is backed by the Italian parliament
The upper house of the Italian Senate gave final approval on Wednesday to a government plan for restarting nuclear power generation, nearly 40 years after an Italian referendum forced its reactors to be shut down. The government wants to deploy advanced modular nuclear reactors in order to decarbonise the industry and improve energy security. It argues that technological and safety advancements have rendered obsolete the 1987 anti-nuclear referendum. The 'right-wing' administration of Prime Minister Giorgia Melloi is trying to protect the economy from the surge in energy costs triggered by the?conflicts in the Middle East. This has rekindled calls to reduce the country's dependence on foreign oil supplies. After the vote, Energy Minister Gilberto?Pichetto?Fratin said: "Sustainable?power will, along with renewable energy sources make Italy a secure, independent, and competitive country." Italy is heavily reliant on energy imports. This includes electricity produced by nuclear plants in neighboring countries, such as France. However, anti-nuclear activists argue that the safety concerns and time required to build new reactors are greater than any potential benefits. Italians are divided over the issue. Demopolis' June poll found that while 51% of respondents supported restarting nuclear energy generation, a majority were opposed to the construction?of a plant near their home. The government's plan, which was unveiled last year and estimated that nuclear power could account for at least 11% (EUR17 billion) of Italy's energy mix by 2050. According to the national plan for energy and climate in Italy, this share could rise up to 22%. The law gives 12 months for the government to implement the necessary?decrees to restart nuclear power production. The law also lays out provisions for the decommissioning of old facilities and setting up an independent regulator. The opposition parties of the centre-left were largely against this measure, and they urged that the government allocate no additional land for new reactors. "New plants should be located in areas which are already developed or degraded, or that have been affected by former industrial activities without taking up additional land," said Five Star Movement Senator Elena Sironi.
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Iran's President says Tehran won't surrender to the US in a war, but believes that diplomacy is better than war
Masoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian president, told the annual gathering at the United Nations of world leaders on Wednesday that Iran would not surrender to the United States in the war, but that he believes in diplomacy as a way to resolve the conflict. The United States delegation left the room at the beginning of Pezeshkian’s speech. The US'mission at the United Nations didn't immediately respond to an?invitation for comment. The Strait of Hormuz has become the focal point of tensions between Iran, and the US. It was a conduit for a quarter of 'global oil, and liquefied gas, before 'the war. "It is not possible that the Strait of Hormuz benefits everyone while we are denied shipping access through this waterway. Pezeshkian stated that the permanent deployment of hostile forces and the expansion in the war would not lead to peace. Pezeshkian spoke to the 193 members of the?General Assembly?a day after US president Donald Trump spoke. Trump made the case 'for his war against Iran in his speech on Tuesday, saying that he had prevented Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons and warned that he could 'annihilate the Islamic Republic' if a deal was not reached to end this conflict.
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BHP Escondida Mine Supervisors' Union urges refusal of contract offer; strike looms
The unionized supervisors will urge members at BHP's Escondida Copper?mine to reject the latest 'contract offer' from the company, pave the way for a strike. BHP made the offer to union members at the end Tuesday of the formal negotiations process. The vote will take place between September 28-30. Alexis Barrera, union leader, said that the union board unanimously rejected this latest offer because it "lacked essential elements." * He called on union members to vote for a strike. * If members reject the offer by voting, then a five-day mandatory government mediation period follows, before a legal walkout can be initiated. This period may be extended by mutual agreement by an additional five days. Workers objected against provisions such as task-based requirements for work and a potential?14-14 days work/rest rotation during contingencies. * Escondida said?the offer "contains new benefits and improvements over the current collective contract, which is already a leading tool in the?industry for the supervisors segment." The company says that the new contract is a result of lower production levels, increased cost pressures, and an investment plan designed to maintain future capacity.
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FOREX Dollar nears two-month high due to Fed rate hike expectations
The US dollar rose to its highest level in nearly two months on Wednesday, on the prospect of an interest rate increase in the near term. However, easing oil price could change?the global inflation outlook and monetary policy outlook. The euro dropped to its lowest level since late July, and last fell by 0.37% to $1.1405. The pound fell by as much as 0.5%, to $1.3273. This is its lowest level since early July. The dollar index, which measures US currency against six other currencies, increased by 0.36% to reach 100.92. Recent interest rate hikes by major central banks and their hawkish language have taken center stage on currency markets, as the US/Israeli conflict against Iran is driving oil prices up and fueling inflation fears. Investors expect more rate hikes, and this week a number Federal Reserve officials signaled that more policy tightening could be coming if inflation doesn't subside fast enough. Francesco Pesole, ING's strategist, said: "It is another sign that Fedspeak and hawkish Fedspeak are enough to keep USD on demand." The oil markets are still in the spotlight. Brent crude futures rose by 1%, returning to $100 per barrel after a five-day decline. This was based on the hope that the UN General Assembly would be able to resolve the seven-month Middle East conflict. Brent futures are up 37% since the conflict began at the end February. Physical prices in Europe are up at least 75% and in the US, at least 40%. It remains to be determined whether this decline will continue. Pesole stated that from a rates perspective oil ranging between $90-100/bbl is unlikely to cause a dovish change in expectations. Although crude oil prices have fallen, the price of refined products is still very high. Diesel, the fuel that powers most vehicles, is at record-high prices in Europe and in the US. US President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that he supports the idea of a ban on diesel exports as a means to lower domestic prices. Analysts believe this could have a negative impact on global supply. Trump said he would annihilate Iran without a deal to end the conflict, but he also hinted that an agreement might be reached soon as diplomatic efforts continue in New York. Michael Wan is a currency analyst with MUFG. He said, "The good news about oil prices is that they have moderated from their highs. However, the path forward remains unclear due to the lack of clarity surrounding a potential resolution of the war." Investors also await a high-stakes summit between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping, as both leaders are seeking stability in their relationship that is under pressure due to a wide range of issues. The Japanese yen dropped to 158?per dollar, as traders remained wary of the possibility of intervention following the Bank of Japan rate hike last week to a record high of 31 years. However, the Bank of Japan did not reassure investors that further increases could be on the way. Analysts believe that this period of reduced liquidity would be the best time for authorities, in case they are needed to intervene. Kieran William, the head of Asia FX for Intouch Capital Markets said that "160 (per US Dollar) remains a risk. However, officials are reportedly moving away from telegraphing interventions and from any set level. Therefore, the cap may come sooner and in different forms."
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Republicans could have gerrymandered themselves into a Latino problem the size of Texas
South Texas is a long stretch of highways with flat terrain, dotted with pump jacks and mesquite trees. Gas stations in South Texas have prices that voters say shouldn't be so high. This territory went heavily for Donald Trump in the 2024 election, but could change again in 2026. The trip took us from the outskirts San Antonio to McAllen via historic ranchlands and more than 30 Latinos who all had the same refrain: "as president, Trump missed a great opportunity to lower prices in this vast expanse where trucks and beef barbacoa reign supreme." Many people are not convinced that the Republican Party cares about them. Frustration over Trump's immigration policy and economic pressures is on the rise, which exposes cracks in what Republican officials had hoped would be a durable political realignment of Latino Americans. According to the latest tracking poll by /Ipsos, Trump's nationwide approval rating has dropped to 33%. This is the lowest level since he returned to office. This uncertainty is a problem to Texas Republicans who redrew the congressional maps last summer, betting that the Latinos who helped Trump win in 2024 would stay in their column. David Wasserman is an elections analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Texas Republicans wanted to change several districts to be more favorable for their candidates in the 2026 elections. They based their changes on Trump’s performance from 2024, which was the best showing by a Republican candidate among Latino voters this century. Rather than dilute Latino voters' power, many newly-configured districts remained heavily Latino. This included Texas's 15th and 35th Congressional district. Latinos make up 74.5% in District 15. According to the redistricting study by the state, Latinos make up 51.6% of District 35. Both districts are more competitive. The political forecasting site Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the 15th district as a Tossup, while the 35th district is rated as Lean Republican. Cook Political rates 15th District as Lean Republican. A Texas Southern University survey conducted in August 2026 found that Democratic candidates were leading in three South Texas congressional districts, including the fifteenth. Nearly 50 interviews with analysts, activists and pollsters, as well as voters, support the notion that some Latinos who voted Trump in South Texas are open to Democrats. Saul Guajardo of McAllen is one of them. He voted three times for Trump. He said, "I was a conservative and far-right." "I am more willing than ever to vote Democrat." Guajardo said he and his wife Terrie live paycheck-to-paycheck, despite steady incomes. According to AAA, the average cost of gasoline in McAllen was $4.09 per gallon on September 22. Terrie said Trump’s "crackdown" on immigration enforcement was too harsh, because it has permanently divided some families who are trying to build a new life in the U.S. Many Latinos have a negative view of Republicans, according to a recent poll. A survey of 1,000 Latinos conducted by?Cook Political for TelevisaUnivision and?Cook Political in September found that 18% who voted for Trump do not support him anymore, and nearly two-thirds would vote less for candidates who support Trump’s immigration policies. Both parties see these shifts as the reason for both the promise and danger of Latino voters. They have shown less loyalty to parties than they do to elected officials who promise them economic improvement. "You're not talking to a brick wall, because they will all vote Democrat or Republican," said Daniel Alegre CEO of Spanish language media company TelevisaUnivision. "They will all vote for the candidate who makes their lives better." Republicans reject the idea that Latinos are turning away from them. Christian Martinez, National Republican Congressional Committee Hispanic Press Secretary, said Democrats responded to the decline in support from Hispanics with "denials, excuses and condescension" instead of addressing the concerns that drove working-class voters towards Republicans. CANDIDATE QUALITY Redistricting could backfire in the 15th District. In its re-configured form, it would have given Trump a 18-point victory in 2024 compared to a 2-point margin in 2020, and a 14-point defeat in his first presidential election in 2016. Bobby Pulido is a singer who has been a celebrity long before he entered politics. His hit song, "Desvelado", has been streamed on Spotify for nearly 610,000,000 times, and he's won two Latin Grammy Awards. His economic message and cross-over appeal has made the district one of the most closely watched races in the state. In a late August Texas Southern University survey, Pulido led De La Cruz by five percentage points. Pulido, dressed in a blue jeans, cowboy boots and a cowboy cap, travels around South Texas at weekends to attend quinceaneras, the traditional Latino 15th birthday party for girls. He often ends his surprise -- and free -- visits with a gift: a white cap with pink lettering that reads "Make Quinceaneras great again." Pulido claimed that Democrats lost support with Latinos in South Texas due to their failure to address economic concerns, which are most important to working families. He also said that both major parties misunderstand the electorate. Pulido said, "As a Democrat I believe that we misunderstand Hispanic voters and, frankly, I don't think Republicans get it either." "We're not looking for handouts. We're proud." "We just want to work, make something for our families and work towards making our children prosper better than we did." Pulido surprised Melody Silva, her family and 200 friends who had gathered to celebrate Melody's quinceanera on August 1. They cheered louder after he announced his candidacy for Congress and screamed at him when he appeared on a stairway. Michael Silva, Melody Silva's father, a McAllen police officer said: "He has such deep roots in the Valley." "I feel that he is not only representing the Valley but also the raza - the people - for us, locals." His name recognition appears to be his strongest suit. Pulido was a familiar name to the dozen voters interviewed at a Beeville outdoor market held monthly, about 180 miles north. The campaign of De?La?Cruz did not respond when asked for comment. Ramon Barrera (36), known on social media as "The Texas Tea Guy", sees a shift in the sentiment. He shares short TikTok posts "spilling tea" on politics and community issues. He also drives his Dodge Ram 3500 around South Texas to meet locals while looking for old furniture. He described himself as conservative, but was not firmly aligned to either party. He described Trump's presidency as a disappointment. This opened the door for him vote for Gina Hinojosa and Pulido, both Democrats running against Greg Abbott who is seeking a 4th consecutive term. He said, "The S&P looks great but our wallets do not."
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FOREX Dollar at 2-month highs, as Fed outlook is 'dominant.'
On Wednesday, the dollar rose to its highest level in over two months as a result of expectations that interest rates will be raised in the near future. However, easing oil prices may alter global inflation and monetary policies outlook. The euro dropped to its lowest level since late July, and last fell by 0.25% to $1.142. The pound fell 0.3% to $1.3305. The dollar index (which measures the US currency in relation to six other currencies) was 0.244% higher at 100.79. Recent rate hikes by major central banks and their hawkish rhetoric have taken center stage on the currency markets, as the US/Israeli conflict against Iran is driving oil prices up and fueling inflation fears. Investors now expect further rate increases and Federal Reserve officials have indicated this week that more policy tightening could be forthcoming if the inflation does not subside rapidly enough. Francesco Pesole, a ING strategist, said: "It is another sign that Fedspeak and the hawkish Fedspeak are enough to keep USD on demand." The oil markets are still in the spotlight. Brent crude futures climbed back to $99 per barrel after a five-day decline, fueled by hopes that the UN General Assembly would pave the path for a solution to the seven-month Middle East conflict. Brent futures are up 37% since the conflict began at the end February. Physical prices in Europe are at least 75% more expensive and in the US, they're at least 40% higher. It remains to be determined whether this will evolve into a more sustained drop. Pesole stated that from a rates perspective oil floats around $90-100/bbl is unlikely to cause a dovish change in expectations. The price of crude oil may have dropped from its recent highs, but the prices for refined products are still very high. Diesel, the fuel that powers most vehicles, is at record-high prices in Europe and in the US. US President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that he supports the idea of a ban on diesel exports as a means to lower domestic costs - something analysts claim could cause more harm than good for global supply. Trump said in his UN speech on Tuesday that he would annihilate Iran without a deal to end the conflict, but also hinted at a possible agreement soon, as diplomatic efforts continue in New York. Michael Wan is a currency analyst with MUFG. He said, "The good news about oil prices is that they have moderated a bit from their highs. However, the 'path forward' remains unclear due to the lack of clarity surrounding a possible solution of the conflict." Investors also await a high-stakes summit between Trump?and Chinese president Xi Jinping, as both leaders are seeking stability in a relationship that is under pressure due to a wide range of issues. The?Japanese currency was trading at 157.8 yen per dollar. Traders remain cautious of the possibility of an intervention, after last week's Bank of Japan rate hike that reached a 31-year record high failed to convince?investors of further increases. Analysts believe that the Japanese markets will be closed on Monday for a holiday. This 'period of reduced liquidity' is an ideal time for the authorities to act if necessary. Williams of Intouch said that "160 per US dollar remains the risk. But officials have moved away from telegraphing an intervention and any fixed level. So the cap could be earlier and take other forms."
The FOREX Dollar jumps near a two-month high due to Fed outlook and oil rise
On Wednesday, the US dollar reached its highest level since nearly two months as 'investors' priced in an upcoming rate-hike cycle from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, oil prices rose as a result of comments made by 'Iran regarding progress in peace negotiations.
Following the rate hike by the Federal Reserve last week, several Federal Reserve officials also hinted at the possibility of further rate increases in the event that inflation continues to rise.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated on Wednesday that the US central banks took an important step to "recalibrate", short-term borrowing rates to bring down inflation. He also said they will need to continue to raise interest rates.
Elias Haddad is the global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, based in London.
The dollar is being pushed higher by the Fed's hawkish hike last week. There hasn't really been any data or data that is policy-relevant this week, but the comments made by Fed officials are interesting. They're all basically saying the same thing, i.e., more tightening will be coming.
Dollar gains continued after S&P Global reported that its flash US Composite PMI Output Index (which tracks manufacturing and service sectors) increased to 58.4 in September, its highest reading since July 2021. This was due to a surge of new orders. However, strong?demand stretched supply chains and drove prices higher.
The dollar index, which measures greenbacks against a basket currencies, rose by 0.54%, to 101.09, after reaching 101.1. This was its highest level since July 29.
LSEG data shows that after the release, the expectation of the Fed to raise rates by at least 25% basis points during its October meeting jumped to 75%, up from 53%.
The greenback's gains were also fueled by the rise in oil prices after Mohsenrezaei said, in an interview on state TV, that the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened until Iran's demands are met.
Oil prices have been falling since mid-September when they reached a four-month peak. But this week, the price has reversed its course.
The euro is down 0.52% to $1.1386, and it's on track for its third consecutive daily decline. S&P Global Flash Euro Zone composite PMI Output index data revealed that the region's economic health is surprising, despite the fact that conflicts in the Middle East or Ukraine are driving up energy prices for firms and households.
Investors also await a high-stakes summit between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping, as both leaders seek to stabilize their relationship amid the tensions that are brewing between the superpowers over trade and technology. The dollar rose 0.20%, to 6.712, versus the offshore Chinese Yuan.
The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 158.32 dollars per dollar, as traders remain wary of the possibility of intervention following the Bank of Japan’s rate hike last week to a record high. However, the Bank of Japan’s announcement of an increase to the highest level in 31 years did not reassure investors that there would be more.
Analysts say that the Japanese markets are closed due to a holiday. This period of reduced liquidity increases the likelihood that authorities will intervene.
(source: Reuters)