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MPOC: Crude palm oil price to remain above $1.154 per ton until 2026.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Council stated on Tuesday that the price of crude palm oil is expected to stay above 4,700 ringgits ($1,154) a metric ton through October and the rest of the year, largely due to weather uncertainty. MPOC stated that the main downside risks were a drop in energy prices, and an increase in stock. This is because palm oil production reaches its 'peak' seasonally in September or October. MPOC said that Malaysian exports were 'projected' to remain at 16 million tons by 2027. This reflects the importance of Malaysia in providing palm oil to consumers around the world. The current high stock level, it was said, is likely to be temporary. It added that production and stock levels in both Malaysia and Indonesia should ease over the next few months. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported early this month that inventories reached an eight-month peak in August, as production increased to its highest level since Dec. and exports decreased. MPOC has stated that El Nino-related dry weather is becoming more prevalent in Malaysia and Indonesia. This raises concerns over its potential impact on the palm oil industry 'in six to nine months. It said that rainfall in Malaysia was also lower than average, at around 30% less in August. In Indonesia, it was about 20% below the average. MPOC reported that the blending of biofuels on the energy market had improved due to the'shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline facilities and the shipping interruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab Strait and in the East-West pipeline.
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How a Bangladeshi clothing manufacturer is battling the Middle East's energy crisis
Gas?and electricity crisis has affected production in most Bangladeshi garment manufacturers, but 4A Yarn Dyeing is a supplier of?Walmart and Gap, and Next. Workers continue to stitch hoodies and attach brand logos, for the time being. Since 2019,?4A?has produced its own electricity, including using solar panels. This makes it an exception to Bangladesh's garment sector, which is the world's number two exporter behind China. Energy shortages have worsened in Bangladesh due to the Middle East Crisis. The country generates most of its electricity using natural gas and furnace oil. In a recent survey of 134 knitting factories, 55% of buyers had cancelled or reduced orders due to gas and electricity shortages since August. 78% of the factories had also partially halted their production. The factories also reported delays in shipments and discounts to buyers. 4A's factory in the outskirts of Dhaka employs 7,500 people and generates about 40% of the electricity it needs using solar power. The rest is generated by its own diesel and gas generators. "We have never been dependent on a single source of energy. Abdullah Hil Nakib, co-owner of the company, said that they had backups to?everything. We need some certainty. The cost of doing business is higher. "First there was a lack of oil and then a gas shortage." He said that the costlier diesel has increased 4A's monthly fuel costs by up to 40,950 taka (about 2%-3%). The 'pressure' on factories increased on Monday, after Bangladesh raised fuel prices up to 17.4%. This was a necessary move because global prices were soaring and shipping costs had risen due to the Middle East Conflict triggered by US/Israeli attacks against Iran in February. 4A intends to install a battery system of industrial scale to reduce disruptions in the future. This would allow operations for several hours to continue if power sources failed. Nakib's factory roofs, which are almost covered with solar panels, said that they were able to absorb these costs. STEEP?FUEL PRICES HIKE TO PILE UP MORE PRESSURE The Bangladeshi power minister stated last week that the rising gas prices are affecting industrial growth in Bangladesh, leading to electricity outages, and reducing spending on development. The ready-made garment industry in Bangladesh accounts for more than 80% (or $800 million) of the country's exports, and employs approximately 4,000,000 workers. It contributes 10% or less to Bangladesh's gross domestic product. Manufacturers have had to incur additional costs by shipping goods via air or providing discounts in order to meet deadlines following energy disruptions. Shahidullah Azim, a garment exporter, said that the increase in fuel prices will further squeeze his margins. It is becoming more difficult to maintain our competitiveness while absorbing higher transportation and production costs. Azim explained that a Canadian customer who was expected to place an order of 25,000 pieces, instead placed a smaller order of 8,000. He attributed this to the declining confidence in buyers due to Bangladesh's economic challenges and energy problems. Gas shortages and power cuts are more concerning for some companies, as these problems are not as severe in other countries like Vietnam or India. Mohiuddin Rubel, additional managing director at Denim Expert Ltd., a supplier to brands such H&M, explained. He said that how we handle the situation will determine whether we maintain our position or lose ground.
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Officials say five dead in Russian attacks on Ukrainian regions
Regional officials reported that Russian forces carried out attacks on different Ukrainian regions along the 1,200 km (775 miles) frontline of the four-and-a-half-year-old conflict, killing five people. The Kharkiv Region Prosecutors said that a drone attack on the village of Lozova in northeastern Kharkiv Region killed one person and injured three others. A 'drone' killed a driver in Nikopol in the Dnipropetrovsk Region, further south. Nikopol is a 'frequent Russian target, located on the west bank of Dnipro River, opposite to Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which has been occupied by Russia. A Russian airstrike in Donetsk Region, the focal point of many clashes on the frontlines, caused serious damage to an apartment building located in strategic Kramatorsk and killed?one individual. A second person was also killed in a village nearby. A sustained attack on the village of Mykolaiv Region, near the Black Sea Coast, killed a three-year-old. It was not possible to independently verify attacks by either side. Both sides deny targeting civilians.
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Lobby: UK's exclusion from EU's "Made in Europe" plan threatens British auto industry
A trade group said that Britain's exclusion of the European Union from its proposed "Made in Europe" provisions places the British automotive industry at a competitive disadvantage, and threatens to undermine the contribution it makes to the EU's economy. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders stated that the current draft would deny future British built vehicles incentives available for EU-built products. These include support for greener fleets, CO2 super credit, and support for corporate fleets. This policy excludes British cars from EU member state procurement contracts, which means that public bodies in the EU are not allowed to award contracts for British vehicles. The SMMT stated that the provisions showed the extent of interdependency between the EU and Britain in 'the automotive sector', at a time when the EU is debating the?Industrial Accelerator Act which aims to increase automotive manufacturing in Europe, while reducing dependence on China. "Despite Brexit supply chains are deeply integrated, and cross-Channel trade is worth EUR80 billion a yearly," said SMMT CEO Mike?Hawes. Hawes stated that excluding the UK from "Made in Europe", would be an "own goal" as it would weaken competitiveness and reduce scale, while limiting consumer choices. The car lobby claimed that'such'regulations' put British production in a competitive disadvantage on its largest market. Britain is 'the EU's biggest export market for passenger vehicles and the EU Britains largest export markets for passenger cars. SMMT stated that a fall in?demand for UK cars?would affect?the EU as the UK is EU's biggest customer for automotive parts.
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Texas Governor Abbott suspends all permits issued by the state for data centres until grid audit has been completed
Texas Governor Greg Abbott barred the state's Environmental Agency from issuing any new permits for data centers until the governing bodies complete a massive audit on the energy-hungry installations that are seeking to connect to Texas electrical grid. The Republican Governor's directive to Texas Commission on Environmental Quality effectively "freezes" all state-issued data center permits. Texas is one of the fastest growing data hubs worldwide since the artificial intelligence boom started about three years ago. Abbott was prompted by the growing public backlash and concerns about AI to order a review of the data centers and to freeze their connection to the grid. Grid regulators are currently auditing these connections. They will be looking at data center power consumption, tax incentives, end users, and water consumption. Abbott stated that "Texans come first." Abbott stated that "data centers must pay for themselves, protect our grid and water?and finish the audits". Texas grid regulators have estimated that their audit of data centers could last until the end of next year.
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North Dakota oil production seen increasing in August, says state regulator
The state's Department of Mineral Resources announced on Monday that North Dakota's?crude oil output is expected to increase in?August, and continue in the months ahead as drilling activity and crude prices remain robust. According to the most recent data available, the output in the third largest oil producing state in the United States increased marginally by 1,846 bpd to an average of 1,157 million bpd during July. Justin Kringstad told reporters at a monthly briefing that "given activity levels and prices, I suspect August will be a better month than July." Department of Mineral Resources statistics show that the number of active drilling rigs in North Dakota remained at 34 in September, a level unchanged from August. North Dakota recorded nine hydraulic fracturing teams and a record number of 20,072 wells producing in July. Gunther Harms is a treating plant supervisor?at Department of Mineral Resources. He said that rig additions had leveled out following an increase in late summer. Operators who planned expansion programs for second half of year have largely deployed their equipment. Harms stated that the majority of newly deployed rigs had been reactivated after being idle in North Dakota, or were moved from Montana to North Dakota. The state regulators noted also a'strong activity among mobile units used for well repair and remediation in western North Dakota. This increased level of activity could indicate that more?wells will be brought on line in the next few months. Harms stated that operators are rushing to bring these wells into production. US crude futures, which are often closely watched by producers, because they roughly correspond to the time needed to drill and complete a well, traded near $82 per barrel, as compared with front month prices of $95.78. Kringstad stated that forecasting crude prices remains difficult, even though producers continue to expect oil prices to remain relatively high. North Dakota's budget has not changed despite the fact that its July production exceeded its forecast of 1.1m bpd.
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AI could boost the LatAm and Caribbean economies by 5.1% in a decade, but wages might fall, IDB warns
According to a forthcoming study by the Inter-American Development Bank, the adoption of artificial intelligence in Latin America and the Caribbean could result in an increase of?5,1% for economic output after ten years. However, its impact on wages depends on the ability of workers to move into jobs that are expanding. IDB's flagship report for 2026, due in November estimates that regional economic output would only be 0.3% higher with limited AI adoption and small productivity gains. The wages of workers who move to expanding sectors could rise by up to 5.3%, or by as much as 2.3%. IDB is Latin America's largest development lender, with 48 members including 26 countries that borrow in the region. Ilan Goldfajn, IDB president, also called for additional financing and long-term contracts to support the supply chains of critical minerals. He said that minerals produced in a way that is respectful of labor conditions and environmental protection should be distinguished from those produced without these?safeguards. Goldfajn discussed AI and critical mineral with regional leaders on Monday, including the heads-of-state of?Chile and Uruguay as well as executives of?Alphabet Meta and Anthropic in a closed door meeting. Goldfajn did not provide any?details in an interview before the meeting on the club or price mechanism, or who would be involved or if the IDB was to provide financial support.
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Minister says Canada is interested in a partnership with France LNG
Anita Anand, Canadian Foreign Ministry, said on Monday that Canada and France could form an energy partnership involving liquefied natural gas produced along its Pacific Coast. This comes a day after the leaders of both countries met to discuss energy cooperation. Anand stated that it was "quite possible" for Canada to?execute a partnership in energy with a European nation using LNG imported from Canada's West Coast. In an interview conducted on the sidelines the annual gathering of leaders of the world at the United Nations, she stated that "that goes for France." Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has called for a deeper energy partnership with Canada in recent days as Europe seeks to diversify its supply amid disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict and rising 'energy prices. Canada, the fifth largest natural gas producer in the world, exported its first liquefied gas in June. The LNG Canada facility, led by Shell, is located in British Columbia and is the only North American LNG export site with direct access the Pacific Ocean. Anand stated that discussions were taking place on energy partnerships with countries all over the world in a variety of sectors, including LNG, clean energies, wind, solar, and nuclear power. She said that "every country I talk to asks me about possible partnerships in energy." Anand cited discussions between Canada and Germany earlier this year involving LNG supplies bound for Asia via a swap agreement, where Germany would benefit from third-party sales instead of direct shipments. She said that Canada is looking to match the?energy expertise of its partner countries with their needs. The German state-controlled energy company Uniper also signed a 20-year contract to purchase liquefied gas from Canada at the end of July. Anand, when asked about the prospects of cooperation with France said that the same logic applies. Anand said that energy, critical minerals, and artificial intelligence would all be discussed with Germany's foreign minister when she hosts him in Canada this week. She said Ottawa is seeking to strengthen ties with the European Union, not only as a bloc, but with each individual member state. She said, "Canada is strengthening its relationship with the EU not only as a group but also with each individual country within the EU in order to benefit our own population."
MORNING BID AMERICAS-Summiteering
Following a week of tightening by central banks, the markets are now turning to diplomacy or top-level summits as world leaders gather in New York for the United Nations General Assembly this week.
The top bilateral summit is the meeting between US president Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday in Washington.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with China's Vice-Premier He?Lifeng? on Sunday in order to set up an agenda for trade relations, AI and geopolitics.
The weekend headlines were dominated by the raging conflicts in the Middle East, Eastern Europe and Russia. Both Saudi Arabia's Riyadh, and Russia's Moscow, came under attack, both from Houthi-backed forces and Ukrainian forces.
On Monday, oil prices fell on the back of hopes that Saudi Arabia will restore some flow through its East-West pipe and amid reports that fuel and oil shipments have increased in September. The observable data were less optimistic. Some hoped that Chinese pressure against Iran could have an impact on regional attacks.
Stock markets were up in the thin trading of Monday, despite Brent crude remaining above $100 per barrel.
Japan has not had much time to react to the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike on Friday, since Tokyo markets have been closed this week.
After a rate check was reported, the yen gained some ground on Friday. It had weakened against dollar after the increase. The currency was stable on Monday amid concerns about possible further government intervention during market closures.
Rate markets are trying to gauge 'what's next'? after the Federal Reserve raised rates last week. Rate markets have fully priced in one more rate hike by the end of the year, with a move next month being about 50-50.
Neal Kashkari, the Minneapolis Fed chief, said on Sunday that concerns about inflation were not limited to oil prices. He also noted that services price inflation was equally concerning. Economists believe the Fed is trying to reset in order to accommodate a faster-growing future economy that could prevent it from hitting its inflation goal.
In the last two weeks, yields on 2-year Treasury bonds have increased by as much as 36 basis point.
Even though it left policy unchanged last Friday, the Bank of England will also likely raise rates before year's end. The European markets are also focusing on the poor results of Germany's CDU in two state elections held over the weekend, despite the fact that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has vowed to continue and that first thing Monday morning, the euro remained stable.
Chart of the Day
Investors are now demanding a higher premium for holding French debt. For the first time since 2012, France must pay a 104 basis-points premium on its bonds.
Investors are worried about the long-term financial stability of developed economies. They're also concerned that France is struggling to reduce its budget deficit in advance of an upcoming presidential election that could make this task even more difficult.
The government wants to reduce the deficit from 5.4% to 5% of output by cutting EUR54 billion in spending. In the next few months, the opposition parties will likely challenge the government.
Watch today's events
Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee, speaks
* Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank and Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada also speak
* Japanese financial markets closed for holidays; returning Thursday
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(source: Reuters)