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FOREX Dollar nears two-month high due to Fed rate hike expectations

The US dollar rose to its highest level in nearly two months on Wednesday, on the prospect of an interest rate increase in the near term. However, easing oil price could change?the global inflation outlook and monetary policy outlook.

The euro dropped to its lowest level since late July, and last fell by 0.37% to $1.1405. The pound fell by as much as 0.5%, to $1.3273. This is its lowest level since early July. The dollar index, which measures US currency against six other currencies, increased by 0.36% to reach 100.92.

Recent interest rate hikes by major central banks and their hawkish language have taken center stage on currency markets, as the US/Israeli conflict against Iran is driving oil prices up and fueling inflation fears.

Investors expect more rate hikes, and this week a number Federal Reserve officials signaled that more policy tightening could be coming if inflation doesn't subside fast enough.

Francesco Pesole, ING's strategist, said: "It is another sign that Fedspeak and hawkish Fedspeak are enough to keep USD on demand."

The oil markets are still in the spotlight. Brent crude futures rose by 1%, returning to $100 per barrel after a five-day decline. This was based on the hope that the UN General Assembly would be able to resolve the seven-month Middle East conflict.

Brent futures are up 37% since the conflict began at the end February. Physical prices in Europe are up at least 75% and in the US, at least 40%.

It remains to be determined whether this decline will continue. Pesole stated that from a rates perspective oil ranging between $90-100/bbl is unlikely to cause a dovish change in expectations.

Although crude oil prices have fallen, the price of refined products is still very high. Diesel, the fuel that powers most vehicles, is at record-high prices in Europe and in the US. US President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that he supports the idea of a ban on diesel exports as a means to lower domestic prices. Analysts believe this could have a negative impact on global supply.

Trump said he would annihilate Iran without a deal to end the conflict, but he also hinted that an agreement might be reached soon as diplomatic efforts continue in New York.

Michael Wan is a currency analyst with MUFG. He said, "The good news about oil prices is that they have moderated from their highs. However, the path forward remains unclear due to the lack of clarity surrounding a potential resolution of the war."

Investors also await a high-stakes summit between Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping, as both leaders are seeking stability in their relationship that is under pressure due to a wide range of issues.

The Japanese yen dropped to 158?per dollar, as traders remained wary of the possibility of intervention following the Bank of Japan rate hike last week to a record high of 31 years. However, the Bank of Japan did not reassure investors that further increases could be on the way.

Analysts believe that this period of reduced liquidity would be the best time for authorities, in case they are needed to intervene.

Kieran William, the head of Asia FX for Intouch Capital Markets said that "160 (per US Dollar) remains a risk. However, officials are reportedly moving away from telegraphing interventions and from any set level. Therefore, the cap may come sooner and in different forms."

(source: Reuters)