White House denies reports that the US was considering a ban on diesel exports

Related News

• Republicans could have gerrymandered themselves into a Latino problem the size of Texas

  South Texas is a long stretch of highways with flat terrain, dotted with pump jacks and mesquite trees. Gas stations in South Texas have prices that voters say shouldn't be so high. This territory went heavily for Donald Trump in the 2024 election, but could change again in 2026. The trip took us from the outskirts San Antonio to McAllen via historic ranchlands and more than 30 Latinos who all had the same refrain: "as president, Trump missed a great opportunity to lower prices in this vast expanse where trucks and beef barbacoa reign supreme." Many people are not convinced that the Republican Party cares about them. Frustration over Trump's immigration policy and economic pressures is on the rise, which exposes cracks in what Republican officials had hoped would be a durable political realignment of Latino Americans. According to the latest tracking poll by /Ipsos, Trump's nationwide approval rating has dropped to 33%. This is the lowest level since he returned to office. This uncertainty is a problem to Texas Republicans who redrew the congressional maps last summer, betting that the Latinos who helped Trump win in 2024 would stay in their column. David Wasserman is an elections analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Texas Republicans wanted to change several districts to be more favorable for their candidates in the 2026 elections. They based their changes on Trump’s performance from 2024, which was the best showing by a Republican candidate among Latino voters this century. Rather than dilute Latino voters' power, many newly-configured districts remained heavily Latino. This included Texas's 15th and 35th Congressional district. Latinos make up 74.5% in District 15. According to the redistricting study by the state, Latinos make up 51.6% of District 35. Both districts are more competitive. The political forecasting site Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the 15th district as a Tossup, while the 35th district is rated as Lean Republican. Cook Political rates 15th District as Lean Republican. A Texas Southern University survey conducted in August 2026 found that Democratic candidates were leading in three South Texas congressional districts, including the fifteenth. Nearly 50 interviews with analysts, activists and pollsters, as well as voters, support the notion that some Latinos who voted Trump in South Texas are open to Democrats. Saul Guajardo of McAllen is one of them. He voted three times for Trump. He said, "I was a conservative and far-right." "I am more willing than ever to vote Democrat." Guajardo said he and his wife Terrie live paycheck-to-paycheck, despite steady incomes. According to AAA, the average cost of gasoline in McAllen was $4.09 per gallon on September 22. Terrie said Trump’s "crackdown" on immigration enforcement was too harsh, because it has permanently divided some families who are trying to build a new life in the U.S. Many Latinos have a negative view of Republicans, according to a recent poll. A survey of 1,000 Latinos conducted by?Cook Political for TelevisaUnivision and?Cook Political in September found that 18% who voted for Trump do not support him anymore, and nearly two-thirds would vote less for candidates who support Trump’s immigration policies. Both parties see these shifts as the reason for both the promise and danger of Latino voters. They have shown less loyalty to parties than they do to elected officials who promise them economic improvement. "You're not talking to a brick wall, because they will all vote Democrat or Republican," said Daniel Alegre CEO of Spanish language media company TelevisaUnivision. "They will all vote for the candidate who makes their lives better." Republicans reject the idea that Latinos are turning away from them. Christian Martinez, National Republican Congressional Committee Hispanic Press Secretary, said Democrats responded to the decline in support from Hispanics with "denials, excuses and condescension" instead of addressing the concerns that drove working-class voters towards Republicans. CANDIDATE QUALITY Redistricting could backfire in the 15th District. In its re-configured form, it would have given Trump a 18-point victory in 2024 compared to a 2-point margin in 2020, and a 14-point defeat in his first presidential election in 2016. Bobby Pulido is a singer who has been a celebrity long before he entered politics. His hit song, "Desvelado", has been streamed on Spotify for nearly 610,000,000 times, and he's won two Latin Grammy Awards. His economic message and cross-over appeal has made the district one of the most closely watched races in the state. In a late August Texas Southern University survey, Pulido led De La Cruz by five percentage points. Pulido, dressed in a blue jeans, cowboy boots and a cowboy cap, travels around South Texas at weekends to attend quinceaneras, the traditional Latino 15th birthday party for girls. He often ends his surprise -- and free -- visits with a gift: a white cap with pink lettering that reads "Make Quinceaneras great again." Pulido claimed that Democrats lost support with Latinos in South Texas due to their failure to address economic concerns, which are most important to working families. He also said that both major parties misunderstand the electorate. Pulido said, "As a Democrat I believe that we misunderstand Hispanic voters and, frankly, I don't think Republicans get it either." "We're not looking for handouts. We're proud." "We just want to work, make something for our families and work towards making our children prosper better than we did." Pulido surprised Melody Silva, her family and 200 friends who had gathered to celebrate Melody's quinceanera on August 1. They cheered louder after he announced his candidacy for Congress and screamed at him when he appeared on a stairway. Michael Silva, Melody Silva's father, a McAllen police officer said: "He has such deep roots in the Valley." "I feel that he is not only representing the Valley but also the raza - the people - for us, locals." His name recognition appears to be his strongest suit. Pulido was a familiar name to the dozen voters interviewed at a Beeville outdoor market held monthly, about 180 miles north. The campaign of De?La?Cruz did not respond when asked for comment. Ramon Barrera (36), known on social media as "The Texas Tea Guy", sees a shift in the sentiment. He shares short TikTok posts "spilling tea" on politics and community issues. He also drives his Dodge Ram 3500 around South Texas to meet locals while looking for old furniture. He described himself as conservative, but was not firmly aligned to either party. He described Trump's presidency as a disappointment. This opened the door for him vote for Gina Hinojosa and Pulido, both Democrats running against Greg Abbott who is seeking a 4th consecutive term. He said, "The S&P looks great but our wallets do not."

• Diesel prices in the world hit record levels, and further increases are possible

  The price of diesel has risen to record levels in Europe and the United States as the wars in Iran, Ukraine and Russia have severely cut exports by some?of the?largest producers, such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, and there are few options to stop further gains. The price of diesel futures in Europe reached a record high last week, having more than doubled their value at the start of 2026. This was after supply disruptions reached the Red Sea where Saudi Arabia loads the majority of its diesel. Refineries around the world are working hard to produce fuels, despite the damage caused by the wars in the Middle East. According to the International Energy Agency, in the United States, for example, refineries were operating at their highest level in 8 years by late August. In a Monday newsletter, the International Energy Agency stated that "many refineries are already stretched to capacity". This leaves very few options available to prevent further supply constraints and price increases in the months ahead. According to Kpler shipping data, Middle East diesel exports decreased by half from March to August, compared with a year ago, and averaged 800,000 barrels of fuel per day. Kpler data revealed that the Middle East will supply nearly 41% (or more) of Europe's imports of diesel in 2025. George Shaw, Kpler analyst, said that any further disruption of Red Sea flows could tighten an already stretched global market for diesel. He added that the global?diesel market remains vulnerable because refining capacity is still the main pinch point. RUSSIA’S REFINERIES BANNED FOR DIESEL EXPORTS In July, Russia banned diesel exports as a result of drone attacks by Ukraine that reduced Russian refinery production. Ukraine and Russia continue to attack each other's infrastructure, despite the announcement made by Donald Trump, U.S. president last week. He said that both countries had agreed to cease their attacks. On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced that he would meet Trump in the next few days. Before the ban on diesel imports, Russia was the second largest diesel exporter in the world after the United States. It supplied large volumes of diesel to Turkey, Brazil, and other countries. In Europe - historically a net importer of diesel - stocks at the key refining and storage hub of Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp were at their lowest level for this time of the year on September 10, according to data from Insights Global. US RETAIL DIEL PRICE HITS RECORD HIGH For the first time in history, average U.S. retail diesel prices rose above $6 per gallon this month. Even though refineries have been running at near-full tilt, inventories remain below normal seasonal levels. Diesel stocks, which rose by 600,000 barrels in the past week, remain at 96.97 millions barrels, nearly 15% lower than the average of the last five years. ASIAN DIESEL CLOSES TO RECORD Diesel prices in Asia are near record highs due to Middle East and Russian supply disruptions. The benchmark for Asian Diesel, diesel swaps has slipped from a record high in March of over $200 per barrel to hovering around $180 per barrel on September 18th. The current levels are still twice as high as pre-war prices. China's lower exports of diesel?following the Iran War likely tightened the global supply, as the country's shipments decreased by 26% from April to June compared to the same period a year ago due to the government's decision to limit refined products exports. China's exports of diesel recovered in August to their highest level in almost 2.5 years (320,000 bpd), leading to lower stocks in the country.

• Sources: Moscow oil refinery production halted following Sunday drone attack

  Three industry sources reported that the 'primary crude distillation' units of Russia’s largest refinery in Moscow, owned by Gazprom Neft (Gazprom), had halted processing crude oil after fires broke-out at their?main crude distillation? units following an?Ukrainian? drone attack on September 20. On Sunday morning, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced on Telegram that a facility at the refinery had been damaged during a drone attack on the Russian capital. On Monday, sources said that drones had crashed on the site and caused fires in the primary crude distillation units of the refinery. They also stated that it would take weeks to repair the damage and restore operations. Gazprom did not respond immediately to a comment request. The AVT-6 unit of the refinery has a daily capacity of 21,400 tons, which is 53% of the total capacity. Meanwhile, the EURO+ combined crude-processing facility has an 18800 ton capacity, which makes up the other 47%. Since September 21, fuel produced?by?the?Moscow?refinery hasn't been sold on the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange. Sources?said that the refinery would process 11.6 million tonnes of crude oil by 2024. This is equivalent to 230,000 barrels of crude oil per day. It will also produce 2.9 million tons gasoline, 3.2 millions tons diesel, and 1.3million tons bitumen.

• Capital Power: Meta data center makes Alberta attractive to hyperscalers

  Capital Power CEO said that Meta's plan to construct a 'C$13 billion data center' in Alberta, Canada, has increased the appeal of the province for hyperscalers, who view it as a vote 'of confidence' in the government AI strategy. Avik Dey said that Capital Power has been in contact with a number of potential project proponents about supplying electricity. He refused to name companies but said that he did not believe Meta would be the only US Hyperscaler to build? a large-scale datacenter in Alberta. Hyperscalers operate large-scale data centers and cloud computing infrastructure to support AI. Canada only has a few hyperscale data centres operating. Companies have proposed building more than 100 data centers in Alberta. The province has cheap, abundant natural gas for electricity generation, a large amount of land, and a climate that is conducive to supercomputers. Dey stated that "multiple hyperscalers" have been evaluating Alberta for the past 18 months. "I feel that we have the potential to become a multi-gigawatt marketplace." Capital Power pitches?its Genesee Generating Station, southwest of Edmonton, as a possible site for large data centres and believes that its natural gas-fired power generating stations are well-suited to service data centers in Canada or the US. BCE QUADRUPLES THE SIZE OF A SASKATCHEWAN RESOURCE BCE, a Canadian telecom company, announced last week that it would quadruple its data center plans in Saskatchewan. The new facility will be a 1.2 gigawatt hub. Saskatchewan's government has said that it gives priority to Canadian ownership in assessing any new data center projects. Alberta is pursuing hyperscalers based in Silicon Valley and giving new proponents an option to build their electricity sources themselves to maximize their capacity. Meta partnered with Pembina Pipeline to build a natural gas-fired ?electricity-generating station to power its first Canadian data center. Capital Power will provide 250 megawatts of electricity until the project is completed in 2030. A data center project was promoted at an investment summit last week hosted by Prime Minster Mark Carney. An OpenAI executive also attended. Data centers in the US are being criticized by communities and legislators for their power, water, and pollution issues. Dey?said Alberta took a measured approach, encouraging data centers to invest in new energy supply instead of relying upon the grid. A report by the clean energy think-tank 'Pembina Institute' released a month ago said that allowing data centres to draw power from a provincial grid before they have their own generation capacity running would strain the supply and increase electricity costs for consumers. A July Angus Reid survey found that 68% of Canadians were against a large datacenter near their homes.

• Investors assess Saudi export recovery as oil prices fall

  Oil prices fell on Monday, as investors hoped for a recovery of shipments from Saudi Arabia. This was despite the ongoing attacks by the?Yemeni Houthis which have escalated the tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude futures fell 81 cents or 0.78% to $103.06 per barrel at 0031 GMT, after falling 0.91% Friday. US West Texas Intermediate crude traded at $99.41 per barrel, down by 89 cents or 0.89% after a 1.58% drop in the previous session. Yemen's Iran supported Houthis claimed they attacked "sensitive sites" in Saudi Arabia's capital, Riyadh, on Saturday using?missiles or drones. They also said that an Aramco oil export facility in Yanbu in the Red Sea was targeted. After halting shipments via Yanbu, Saudi Aramco has increased exports through the Strait of Hormuz this month and in the coming months. According to preliminary data from analytics company Kpler, this has allowed exports to the OPEC kingpin to recover to just under 4?million barrels a day (bpd), so far in September. In August they had fallen to 2.4 million bpd, the lowest level since at least 2013. JPMorgan analysts stated in a note dated September 18 that Middle East oil flow remains surprisingly strong, despite disruptions to Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline. They added that total oil flows in the past 10 days averaged 17,1 million bpd, only 6.1 million below the average for 2025. The analysts noted that Saudi Arabia has made the most significant pivot, as satellite data showed a?Saudi oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz at an average of 2.9 million barrels per day over the last six days, up from just 700,000 in August. According to three Iranian sources with knowledge of the situation, China asked Iran to help rein the Houthis in after Saudi Arabia appealed to Beijing following the attacks. Iran and the US exchanged threats on Sunday, amid the deadlock. However, President Donald Trump stated that he was open to meeting Iranian president?Masoud Peshkian who will be in New York for the United Nations General Assembly this week. In an interview with Al Jazeera, Mohsenrezaei, Iran's chief of security, said that Iran had conveyed to mediators its conditions for re-engaging negotiations aimed at ending war with the US.

• US factory production drops in August, but outlook is clouded by rising prices

  The US factory output unexpectedly dropped in August. Higher oil prices and increasing interest rates may have offset some of the benefits of an artificial intelligence buildout. This will likely keep activity low for the remainder of the year. The Federal Reserve reported on Friday that output had declined after seven consecutive months of growth. US central bank raised interest rates for the first time since three years on Wednesday. It also warned that borrowing costs would continue to rise in the months to come. The oil prices are above $100 per barrel and there is no end to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran in sight. Samuel Tombs is the chief US economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics. He said: "Looking forward, we believe manufacturing output will increase a little more over the coming months, but it will not match the pace of the first half this year." Some manufacturers will likely find that the demand for their products softens when they pass higher energy prices on to consumers. The manufacturing output fell by 0.3% in August after a 0.2% increase that was not revised. The economists polled had predicted that production would rise by 0.3%. In August, output increased 0.9% year-over-year. According to some economists this modest growth indicates that the Trump administration’s aggressive trade policies have not rejuvenated the nation’s industrial base. The sector's production, which represents 9.4% of GDP, has seen a surge in recent months, as companies rushed to place orders in order to avoid shortages and higher prices due to the Middle East war. The production of durable manufactured goods dropped by 0.5% in August. The production of motor vehicles and their parts fell by 1.2% in the second consecutive month. Computers and peripheral equipment production fell by 1.4% but increased by 5.5% year-over-year. The production of communications equipment grew by 0.8%. Although semiconductors and electronic components?production?dipped by 0.1% from a year ago, this category increased 12.4%. The AI spending spree cushioned manufacturing import tariffs. Some economists still believe in a strong performance in manufacturing this year despite the recent sharp increase in US Treasury yields and the Fed's decision of raising its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis point to 3.75%-4.00%. POSSIBLE TAILWIND FROM HIGHER Defense Spending Bernard Yaros is the lead U.S. economics at Oxford Economics. He said: "We are still expecting manufacturing activity to increase through next year. The AI infrastructure buildout plays a major role in our optimistic outlook." The demand for AI is still strong enough to withstand higher rates for longer and geopolitical risk. Increased defense spending is also a tailwind. Businesses that have been running out of inventory for five consecutive quarters could also boost manufacturing by restocking their inventories to meet a robust demand. However, some economists argue that this trend may be overshadowed due to rising costs. The production of nondurable goods was unchanged in August after a 0.4% drop. The rise in textile production, apparel and leather goods were offset by the decline in plastics and rubber products and in petroleum and coal. Christopher Rupkey is the chief economist of FWDBONDS. He said that the factory output has begun to show signs of a decline. This could get worse if geopolitical factors intensify, and diesel prices don't drop. The White House Economic officials have said that higher diesel prices could start to undermine the picture of a manufacturing renaissance painted by White House economists. Last month, mining production increased by 0.1%, matching July's increase. Oil and gas drilling increased by 0.9%, after increasing by 5.2% in the previous month. Utilities output jumped 1.8%, after a 0.5% increase in July. The overall industrial production remained unchanged in August, after gaining 0.2% during July. In August, industrial output increased 1.4% year-over-year. The capacity utilization rate for the industrial sector - a measure of how firms use their resources - remained unchanged in August at 76.3%. This is 3.1 points below the average for 1972-2025. The manufacturing sector's operating rate fell by 0.3 percentage points, to 75.7%. The operating rate is 2.5 percentage points lower than its long-term average. Carl Weinberg is the chief economist of High Frequency Economics. He said, "There's no evidence that tariffs are creating new jobs for manufacturing or industry."

• US wants to expand uranium enrichment faster in order to avoid supply shortages

  Two officials from the United States Department of Energy said that the United States wants suppliers to speed up development of uranium-enrichment capacity in order to avoid potential'shortages' as interest grows in nuclear energy. Several countries are looking to increase nuclear power, either by building new reactors or reactivating power plants that have been mothballed. This is to meet the rising demand for electricity, which is largely due to artificial intelligence. According to UxC, the industry consultancy, uranium prices have almost tripled in five years due to increased interest. James Danly, U.S. Deputy Energy Secretary, said at a nuclear summit in Paris co-hosted with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris: "Our goal is to resolve as many bottlenecks and restrictions as quickly as possible." "If we want to have this nuclear revolution, we won't be able do it without fuel." "We want as much capacity at home as possible as soon as possible," Danly said. FRANCE RELYS MORE THAN ANY OTHER LAND ON NUCLEAR POWER Nuclear power is still a controversial topic. Nuclear power can generate huge amounts of energy without adding carbon to the atmosphere to warm it, but its waste is difficult to manage and costs are high. The extreme heat in?Europe this summer led to nuclear plant shutdowns, as they could not be cooled. France is the only country in the world that relies so heavily on nuclear energy to supply 70% of its electricity. The World Nuclear Association (part of the OECD) has revealed that the US is not only the world's largest nuclear energy producer, but also the one that supplies the majority of its electricity. The U.S. opened its last commercial nuclear power plant in 2024, after years of delay and billions of dollars over budget. The U.S. plans to restart nuclear plants that were shut down, but none have been online yet. The uranium used in large conventional reactors has a lower enrichment than that required to make weapons. Michael Goff is the US principal assistant secretary for the Department of Energy. He said that Washington wants to encourage the companies which enrich uranium in order to fuel nuclear power plants to increase their capacity to enrich as soon as possible. This includes Orano?of France and US companies such as?Centrus?and General Matter?. The use of milestone-based contracting is one way to encourage this. Goff stated that around $900 million of government funding for new facilities are tied to the companies meeting development deadlines. Goff stated that "one of the most important things we did was to ensure that Russia would not be able to re-enter the fuel service industry in our country." The United States has prohibited the import of Russian-enriched Uranium since 2022 when Russia began its war against Ukraine. However, companies may obtain temporary waivers in order to avoid shortages. Goff stated that there are no plans to extend the waiver system, which expires in 2028.

• ROI-Weekend Reads: China's AI guardrails, power-grid strain, EU mining woes

  Are you looking for inspiration? Weekend Reads is a weekly roundup of what the Open Interest team was reading, watching, and listening to. This week's picks include AI safeguards and the 'power revolution', as well as Europe's quest for critical minerals. This weekend we are reading... ANNA SZYMANSKI is the Editor-in Charge of ROI. This week, US tech leaders warned that artificial intelligence could be a threat to humanity's existence. They were right. Reporters Eduardo 'Baptista' and Laurie Chen reveal in this article how Chinese officials are taking a different approach, while grappling with similar concerns. GAVIN MAGUIRE is a columnist for the Global Energy Transition. The energy think tank Ember shows how electric and informational "revolutions are convergent" in this thought-provoking presentation, The Age of Power. ANDY HOME: This report by the European Investment Bank highlights a lamentable situation in mineral exploration within the European Union. The first step in building resilient supply chains is to find new metals resources. However, EU funding for exploration lags behind global leaders by six or seven factors. Just four member countries are responsible for 75% exploration drilling in the EU. Listening to... RON BOUSSO is a columnist for ROI Energy. This podcast by Energy Gang examines if 'power systems, as we know it, are fit for purpose given?the rapid alterations we see in both demand (data centers) and supply (renewables). We're always watching... ANNA SZYMANSKI is the Editor-in Charge of ROI. In this?latest Econ World Podcast, Carmel Crimmins, and? US autos editor Mike Colias discusses how the Trump Administration's rollback on electric vehicle support has reshaped?the US automotive industry and its efforts to compete with China. The opinions expressed are solely those of their authors. These opinions do not represent News's views, which are committed to independence, integrity and freedom from bias under the Trust Principles.

• Record US diesel prices squeeze farmers; food prices may rise

  Addie, a farmer of corn, soya beans and cattle, uses two combines, 3 semi-trucks, and several tractors to harvest and move her crops in northeast Missouri from mid-September until late October. She said that with diesel prices at an all-time high and only one combine needing 300 gallons, the best thing she could do was to try to cut back on other expenses. Drew Peterson is a farmer in southeast South Dakota who grows soybeans, corn, and cattle. He expects to pay up to $1,500 a day for fuel to run just one of the combines he uses to harvest his crops. This would be double what he spent last year. He said, "You can't say that diesel is too expensive and I won't harvest." "You just have to work it into your budget." Farmers in the U.S. are facing record-high diesel costs during harvest season. This is further tightening the margins that were already very thin. Prices are likely to rise at grocery stores in America ahead of the midterm elections this November, when cost of living will be a major concern for voters. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, as well as the Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have squeezed global fuel supplies. According to Energy Information Administration, the average U.S. Diesel price reached a record high this week at $6.29 per gallon. This is up 68% compared to $3.74 one year ago. According to David Ortega, economist at Michigan State University, higher diesel prices increase costs throughout the entire food supply chain, from the harvesting of food on farms to the freight delivery that transports food to supermarkets. Ortega stated that "the majority of our food is transported by trucks, and these trucks use diesel." Consumer prices for food rose by 2.7% in August over the same period last year, according to Consumer Price Index. FUEL PRICES DOUBLE Off-road diesel is available to farmers, and it's not taxed by the state or federal government. Even with the discount, however, many farmers still pay significantly more than last year for fuel. Wayne Gularte who grows vegetables on 600 acres in California near Gonzales said that his fuel costs rose by 40% from $5 to $7 per gallon. He has also parked one of the farm's diesel trucks to save money. Gularte stated that the only money they can earn is what they save. Michael Langemeier is an economist from Purdue University. He says that farm fuel costs have increased by $11 per acre compared to last year. Futures for corn, soy and grain have all rallied since mid-August. They reached multi-year highs early in September. Nick Paulson of the University of Illinois, an agricultural economist, warned that farmer margins are still thin when compared with historical averages. He said that he was concerned that a diesel price of $6 or more per gallon would start to exert inflationary pressures, even on some of the better profit potential. Jon Paul Driver, second vice president of Washington Farm Bureau and a hay producer near Spokane in Washington, said that many farmers had already tightened their belts. They left little room to accommodate the fuel price hikes. Driver stated that any increase in fuel prices right now would be an additional debt to the farm. U.S. Senator Roger Marshall (a Republican from Kansas) asked Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, in a letter dated September 11, to provide temporary relief to farmers who "absorb substantial fuel costs unplanned during one of most diesel-intensive seasons of the year." A USDA spokesperson stated that the agency "is not leaving any stone unturned," in regards to the high diesel prices. She referred to an interview Rollins gave to NewsMax on September 15, in which she said that Rollins would have more information to share in the coming week. FOOD PRICES MAY RISE Ortega stated that even though fuel is a relatively small part of the food cost, the consumer could still expect to see prices increase as the supply chain absorbs higher fuel costs in the months ahead. Ortega explained that these effects may take some time to manifest because retailers might try to absorb price increases in the short term, or if freight contracts at lower prices have not yet reflected fuel surcharges. He said that the most vulnerable items to price increases are groceries like dairy, meat and produce that require fuel-intensive refrigeration trucking. The rates to transport apples and pears out of Washington State’s Yakima Valley via refrigerated trailers have reached a four-year high, even though the harvest season is only half over. This was confirmed by Dean Croke at DAT Freight&Analytics. Costs to transport California produce outside the state have increased by 40% to 120% in comparison to a year earlier. Croke stated that diesel prices in some California cities have reached $8 per gallon. Croke warned that independent truckers who pay upfront for fuel may be unable to handle further increases. He said that the rising price of diesel would lead to bankruptcy for trucking companies.

• JP Morgan has said it does not have a clear endgame for the oil market as the Iran conflict drags out

  JP Morgan stated on Thursday that they do not have a baseline view of oil markets for the first time since the US-Israeli War on Iran. Analysts at the bank stated that they "simply do not know how to model endgame." The note noted that JP Morgan assumed at the start of the conflict that there would be a few economic thresholds the U.S. government wouldn't cross. However, six months later, these lines had been crossed and no exit strategy was in sight. The bank stated that gasoline is now $4.37 per gallon, and oil has risen above $100 per barrel. The bank also stated that US diesel prices had reached an all-time-high of $6.31 per gallon as we head into the winter season, when demand is at its peak. Meanwhile, inventories are at their lowest levels ever. JP Morgan estimated Brent’s fair value for September at $90 per barrel, compared with current prices of around $106, which suggests that markets are pricing in further supply disruptions beyond the estimated 10,000,000 barrels per day. The?note referred to the mounting dangers in the Middle East including recent attacks on Saudi export routes and threats to shipping through Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The?note also noted the continued attacks against Russian refinery infrastructure and Ukrainian cities. This underscores persistent geopolitical threats to global energy supply. JP Morgan stated that despite the'scale of supply disruptions', oil prices haven't risen as much as expected, because consumers and governments have relied less upon inventory reductions. Since the start of the conflict, global inventories of crude oil and refined products has fallen by around 555 million barrels. This is only about one third of the decline that the bank predicted earlier this year. The?bank reported that global oil demand is about 4.4 millions barrels per day lower than it was a year ago, which helps offset the supply losses. The market was able to absorb a massive disruption in supply without any sustained increase in crude prices by relying more on destruction of demand and less on stock draws. Brent oil has been averaging $94 since the conflict began," it said. The International Energy Agency announced last week that global oil demand and supply are expected to fall further this year than was previously anticipated. OPEC, on the other hand, still believes that world oil demand will grow in this year, despite lowering its forecast for a 5th consecutive month. OPEC expects the demand to rise by 380,000 bpd by 2026. Bank officials said that significant inventories are still available, especially in China, Europe and Japan, which provides a buffer to a long-term disruption. This could reduce the need to raise?crude oil prices substantially in the near term. It warned that, if the Middle East supply disruptions continue, oil prices may rise later this year, as inventories will decline and the market will become increasingly dependent on destruction of demand to maintain equilibrium. The bank stated that there was still enough dry powder in the market to hold prices down for now.

• Oil prices continue to fall as concerns about Middle East supply disruptions diminish

  Early Thursday morning, oil prices continued to fall, adding to the previous day's losses. This was due to reports that Saudi Arabia offered extra crude cargoes via Oman, which reduced concerns about supply disruptions. Brent crude futures fell $1.24 or 1.2% to $104.59 a barrel at 0049 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate futures were down by $1.14 or 1.1% to $101.29. Both contracts dropped about $3 on Wednesday. Hiroyuki Kikukawa is the chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment. He added that "expectations of progress towards easing tensions in the Middle East before the U.S. China summit next week also cap price increases." People familiar with the situation said that Saudi Arabia offers'more' loadings of crude to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers at Oman's Sohar Port, reducing some 'of the damage to global supply caused by attacks on Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline to the Red Sea. The price of oil rose this week to a four-month high after sources in the shipping industry reported that crude loadings had been suspended at Saudi Arabia's Red Sea Export Hub, Yanbu. Riyadh also cancelled certain cargo deliveries to European clients. The suspension was a result of attacks on the East-West Pipeline, which supplies the Saudi port Yanbu. Yanbu was Saudi Arabia's primary oil export outlet after Iran blocked the?Strait of Hormuz following the U.S.-Israeli attack on the country in February. Hormuz used to be the source of one-fifth the world's oil before the war. Three oil and security sources have reported that two pumping stations servicing the East-West Pipeline were damaged by an attack last week. However, a timeline for repair is not clear. Even though the price of oil fell on Thursday, concerns about a Middle East war that is intensifying remain. Saudi warplanes bombarded Yemen, and Houthi fighters fired drones and missiles at Saudi cities. The Iran-backed movement announced this on Wednesday. This comes after a rapid advance which has increased Tehran's influence in the Middle East?war. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration ?on Wednesday reported a smaller-than-expected draw from U.S. ?crude inventories last week. The EIA data revealed that crude oil inventories in the nation's top producer fell by 640,000 barrels during the week. This was less than the 1.62 million barrels expected according to an energy analyst poll.

• US DFC approves EUR85 Million Loan to Ukraine's DTEK

  DFC and DTEK announced on Wednesday that the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation approved a EUR85 million (USD 97.5 million) loan for Ukraine's largest energy private?company DTEK to expand their?battery?storage. The DFC has made the largest loan to Ukraine's energy industry since the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022. Maxim Timchenko is the chief executive officer at DTEK. He said, "This EUR85million loan allows us to release more funds for building more battery storage projects and other projects." "For me, I think the financial aspect is important, but it's more significant that DFC is willing to support Ukraine and DTEK." He said, "They have done an assessment of risk and know how to manage it. They are telling private investors that they should follow." Ben Black, the chief executive of DFC, said in a press release that "U.S. DFC was authorized to invest by President Donald Trump. These projects will secure vital infrastructure and resources across Africa, Central Asia, Ukraine, Jordan and Jordan and help U.S. firms compete in some of the world's most important markets. DTEK belongs to SCM Holdings. Rinat Akhmetov is the sole shareholder of SCM Holdings and its ultimate beneficiary. DTEK opened Ukraine's largest storage facility for batteries last year to "ensure stable" power supplies, as Russia had repeatedly targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure in missile and drone strikes during the more than four years of war. Six battery storage systems were?connected to the power grid of the capital Kyiv and the Dnipropetrovsk Region in Eastern Ukraine. The 'facilities', built in partnership with Fluence, an American battery storage technology company, can store 400 megawatts of electricity, enough to power 600 000 Ukrainian households for 2 hours.