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Aluminum prices rise on fears of supply as Middle East conflict escalates

Aluminum prices rose on Wednesday, as concerns about supply grew after Norsk Hydro of Norway announced a 'controlled shutdown' in its joint venture with Qatar due to the?ongoing conflict between Israel, Iran and the U.S.

Around?8% global aluminum capacity is produced in the Middle East. As the conflict spreads to neighbouring countries and Iran threatens to target ships trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz, supply concerns are becoming more real.

As of 0300 GMT, the most active aluminium contract at the Shanghai Futures Exchange had risen by 2.04% to 24,730 Yuan ($3,576.13) per metric ton.

The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange increased 1.18%, to $3289.50 per ton.

Norsk hydro announced the Qatalum shut down on Tuesday, after its gas provider warned of a possible supply stop. The company announced that it had sent a notice of force majeure to its customers.

EwaManthey, a commodities strategist at ING, said that the disruption caused by conflict "hits a tight market" in a recent note.

Prior to the conflict, we had a deficit of about 600kt in 2026. China's cap on capacity, trade disruptions, and the impending shutdown of Mozal already restricted supply," Manthey said. He added that the drop in LME inventory, the elevated premiums, and the tightening of the spread between the LME cash contract, and benchmark three-month Even before the war, there was a shortage of supplies.

Aluminium's gains were capped by a stronger dollar.

The most active copper contract in 'Shanghai' fell 0.57%, to 101,830 Yuan per ton. Meanwhile, the benchmark copper rose 0.64%, to $13,068 per ton.

Citi analysts warned that continued disruptions would continue to put pressure on the macroeconomic background, and persistent drone threats against shipping routes and energy infrastructure added to the market stress.

Prices have been pushed down by fading expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and weaker cyclical growth projections.

On the SHFE, elsewhere, zinc fell 0.51%, while lead dropped 0.67%. Tin plunged by 5.63%, and nickel edged up 0.08%.

Other LME metals include zinc, which rose by?0.34%. Lead, which increased by 0.26%. Nickel, up 1.05 %. Tin, up 4.19%.

Tuesday, March 4, DATA/EVENTS 850 France HCOB Services Composite PMI 02/0855 Germany HCOB Composite PMI 02/0855 Germany HCOB Composite final PMI 02/0855 EU HCOB Services Composite PMI 02/0855 UK S&P GLOBAL: COMPOSITE OUTPUT - February 0930 UK Reserve Assets total February 1000 EU Unemployment rate January 1445 US S&P global comp PMI final February 1445 US S&P global comp,

(source: Reuters)