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Russell: The surge in China's imports of coal may be starting to slow down.

China's coal exports increased to the highest level this year in July, but that strength is based on short-term factors and unlikely to last. According to data released by the government last week, total coal imports in July were up 23% from last year's same month to 43.73 millions metric tons.

It was up from 42.78 millions tons in June, and nearly a third higher than the low of 33.1million tons for April this year. After 82 miners were killed in an accident at a mine located in Shanxi Province on May 22, China began imposing safety inspections in mines.

China's largest coal producer has historically seen its output fall due to safety inspections. To make up any shortfall, China imports coal to cover the shortage. In June, domestic coal production dropped 9.7% from the same period a year ago to 380.88 millions tons. According to official data, the average daily output was 12.7 million tonnes, the lowest level since July 2025.

Official data on production will be released next week. However, reports from analysts in China suggest that output in August should be at the same level it was in 2025.

It is possible that China will start to import less coal from August.

Consider that China imports mainly from its neighbours. This includes Mongolia, but also Russia.

About 75% of all coal imported is seaborne, but that share has decreased in recent years, as more coal, primarily metallurgical coal, used to manufacture steel, comes from Mongolia.

Analysts DBX Commodities estimate that China's seaborne coal imports in August were?31.23 millions tons, down from a previous estimate of?33.91 in July. This is the first decrease in four years.

As more cargoes arrive for assessment, the August figures may be revised. However, it is expected that they will fall below July's total, which indicates that China is less in need of imports as safety inspections decrease.

Price Reductions

After a rise in prices, seaborne coal has started to level off after China increased its imports during June and July.

Argus, a commodity reporting agency, assessed the price of 4,200 kilocalories per kilogram (kcal/kg), a popular grade with Chinese buyers, at $62.51 a tonne in the week ending August 7.

It was a slight drop from the monthly assessment, which had been $61.77 per ton in July. However, it was 5.1% lower than the $65.89 of June. China's coal prices and imports are also influenced by the electricity demand. According to official data, China's thermal?production increased 2.9% from a year ago in the first half of 2026.

Thermal power is almost exclusively coal-based, with a little natural gas. While it is increasing, the share of its total generation has declined as China continues to add solar and wind power.

China produced less than half of its electricity in the first six months of this year from fossil fuels, a first. Government data shows that thermal power made up 49.7%.

The reduction of solar incentives has slowed the pace of solar installations. However, wind power will likely ensure that China's share of electricity generated from renewable sources continues to grow.

This should lead to a reduction in coal imports over time, particularly if China keeps its domestic coal production levels at the current?levels.

It is more likely that months such as June and July when coal imports exceeded?40 millions tons will become the exceptions, rather than the rule.

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These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by SonaliPaul)

(source: Reuters)