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Indonesia Minister says high oil prices may cause budget deficit to exceed mandated limit
The senior Indonesian economic minister stated on Friday that the government may impose an additional tax on certain commodities such as palm oil if it 'needs' to reduce the impact of rising global oil prices on the budget. Airlangga Hartarto said that Indonesia, as a global commodity powerhouse, the world's biggest producer of nickel and palm oil, could impose additional tax on nickel, copper, and gold. President Prabowo said that austerity measures can be taken to mitigate the effects of the?rising oil prices in the world'. Airlangga, a government modeller, said that if oil prices remained high due to the Iran War it would be hard to maintain the fiscal deficit within the legal mandate of 3% GDP without cutting spending or reducing the economic growth. He said that he would have to consider these scenarios and the possibility of issuing an emergency order in the event the deficit limit was exceeded. He said that the government had 'predicted three scenarios for predicting?how the Middle East War could impact Southeast Asia’s largest economy. He said that under the first scenario where the Middle East war lasted five months, and crude oil was $86 per barrel in this year, the rupiah fell to 17,000 against the dollar. This would mean the growth rate would remain at 5.3% but the fiscal surplus would reach 3.18%. Airlangga stated that if crude oil averaged $97 the growth rate would fall to 5.2%, and the deficit would reach 3.53%. In the worst-case scenario, crude would average $115. This would result in a deficit of 4%. The oil prices continued to rise on Friday, as the Middle East conflict and resulting disruptions in the Gulf outweighed U.S. measures to reduce supply concerns. Brent futures May LCOc1 rose?88 cents or 0.9% to $101.34 per barrel at 0918 GMT. This is a 9% weekly rise. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for April CLc1 rose 26 cents or 0.3% to $95.99 per barrel, resulting in a weekly increase of 6%. Goldman Sachs forecasted on Friday that Brent oil prices would be over $100 per barrel in March, and $85 in May due to the Middle East war, the damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and the disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz.
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Why haven't Iran's allies, the Houthis in Yemen, entered the war?
Iran's Shiite allies from Lebanon and Iraq joined the regional war sparked by U.S.-Israeli?strikes against Tehran. Yemen's Houthi Rebels, who are heavily armed, and can strike Gulf neighbours?and cause major disruptions to maritime navigation in the Arabian Peninsula have yet to join the fray. This is why: Who are the Houthis? Houthis is a military?and?religious?movement led by the Houthi?family and based in north Yemen. They are Shi'ite Muslims who belong to the Zaydi Sect. After the "Arab Spring", the Houthis expanded their power, and developed closer ties to Iran. The group took advantage of the instability in the country to capture the capital Sanaa, Yemen in 2014. Saudi Arabia led an Arab coalition in a military operation the following year to try and dislodge this group. The Houthis showed off their significant drone and missile capabilities by attacking Saudi Arabian oil installations as well as vital infrastructure. The U.N. brokered an agreement between warring parties in Yemen for a truce to be implemented by 2022. This truce has held since then. RED SEA ATTACKS Following the attack by Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023 that triggered a devastating Israeli campaign in Gaza the Houthis started firing on international?shipping at the Red Sea. They claimed to be doing this in support of Palestinians. Israel responded by airstrikes on Houthi targets after the Houthis fired missiles and drones at Israel. The U.S. launched attacks against the Houthis. In October 2025, the Houthis stopped their attacks after a ceasefire brokered by the U.S. between Israel and Hamas. Why have they not entered the war? Abdul Malik Al-Houthi, the leader of Houthi group, said on March 5 that his group is ready to strike any time. In a televised address, he stated that "our fingers are ready to trigger military escalation at any time should the situation warrant it." They have not announced their formal?joining of the war', unlike Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iraqi armed group. Hezbollah, Iraqi groups and Houthi religious doctrine do not follow the supreme leader of Iran in the same manner. Yemen experts claim that while Iran promotes the Houthis in its "Axis of Resistance" region, they are primarily motivated by domestic issues even though there is a shared political affinity between Iran and Hezbollah. The U.S. claims that Iran armed, funded and trained the Houthis along with Hezbollah. The Houthis deny that they are Iranian proxy forces and claim to develop their own weapons. What might they do? Observers are divided on the possible course of action that Houthis - a notoriously volatile group - may take. Analysts and diplomats believe that they have conducted individual?attacks against targets in neighboring countries. These claims could not be substantiated. Some say that the Houthis have been keeping their powder dry, waiting for the right moment to join the conflict in coordination with Iran to exert maximum pressure. This could be provided by the 'closure' of the Strait of Hormuz for Gulf Arab hydrocarbon exports, and the shift towards a heavy reliance on Red Sea. Some analysts believe that the Houthis might decide to stay out of the conflict entirely, due to the growing pressure on their economy at home, and the possibility of fierce attacks from the U.S. and Israel, and possibly even Saudi Arabia, if they joined the war. (reporting from Timour Azhari, Riyadh. Editing by Aidan Lewis).
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Merz, Germany's Merz, says that easing Russia sanctions would be wrong
The German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Friday that any move to ease sanctions towards Russia was wrong. This came after the United States issued a waiver of 30 days for countries to purchase sanctioned Russian petroleum products and oil stranded in the sea. Merz and his Norwegian counterpart held a joint press conference at which they said: "We think that's wrong." "There's a problem right now with the prices, but not?with the supply." In that regard, I'd like to know what other factors led to the U.S. Government to make this decision. The waiver, which was issued to 'ease oil and gas prices caused by the war that the U.S., Israel and Iran are fighting with Iran', had little impact on Friday. Brent crude benchmark rose to $101 per barrel by 1000 GMT. Iran's response has included attacks on ships in Strait of 'Hormuz. This has brought non-Iranian vessels transiting through the main 'gateway' for'much of Middle East's exports of oil to a standstill, and forced producers in the area to reduce output. Merz stated: "Let me be clear, once again. Germany is not part of this conflict and we don't want to become a participant." Reporting by Andreas Rinke; writing by Thomas Seythal; editing by Friederike Hiene and Miranda Murray
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Kremlin: Russia and US have a shared interest in stabilising the energy markets
The Russian government sees the lifting of U.S. sanctions on its oil as an attempt by Washington to stabilize global energy markets. Washington's waiver of sanctions on Russian oil is an effort to stabilize global energy markets. The two countries share a common interest in this. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the United States had granted a 30-day exemption to 'countries' to purchase Russian oil and petroleum product currently at sea. This was done to stabilize global markets roiled by Iran War. Peskov stated that stabilisation of the market is impossible without a significant volume of Russian oil entering the market. "We are seeing actions taken by the United States to try and stabilise the energy markets. "Our interests are similar in this regard," he added. The U.S. government's latest effort to tame the energy prices after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was the second significant rollback of Ukraine-related U.S. Sanctions in less than a week. Peskov stated that there was a chance the global energy crisis would escalate. He said that such actions would, "of course, to some extent" help stabilize the market because, "without significant volumes Russian oil, it is impossible for market stability." (Reporting and writing by Dmitry Antonov; editing by Mark Trevelyan).
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German Economy Minister: US waiver of Russian oil driven by domestic Pressure
German Economy Minister Katherina Riese stated on Friday that she could see both sides of the United States' decision to issue a 30-day waiver for purchases of Russian oil products. Reiche said at a press conference that he felt the domestic political pressure was very high in the United States. She stated that she is concerned with filling the war coffers of Russian President Vladimir Putin, but that the situation in South Korea, and Japan, are tense. "We have thankfully been spared these shortages," said?Reiche. She said that attacks on ships in Strait of Hormuz continue, and the International Energy Agency's decision to release oil slowly did not achieve the desired result. The IEA announced on Wednesday that all 32 members had agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic stockpiles in order to combat the'spike' in global crude prices following the U.S. - Israel war against Iran. "The biggest uncertainty at this time is whether a shipment will make it safely through the Strait of Hormuz," said Reiche. (Reporting and writing by Holger Hansen; editing by Matthias Williams).
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Dollar on course for second consecutive weekly increase; Euro, yen are at multi-month-lows
The?U.S. The?U.S. dollar is on track for a second weekly gain as investors flock to safe-haven assets due to the conflict in the Middle East. A sharp rise in oil prices that is prolonged and severe would have a devastating effect on the economies of Japan and the Eurozone, both heavily dependent on crude imports. The United States, however, would be relatively protected, as it has been a net exporter of crude for nearly a decade. The economists are still wary about monetary tightening, as the countries' heavy dependence on energy imports will likely lead to a rise in energy prices that could impact on economic growth. The euro dropped to its weakest level since August and Japan warned it would take action if the yen fell further, as its value reached its lowest point in 20 months. The U.S. allowed the sale of certain Russian petroleum products, which had been banned due to Moscow’s “hostilities” in Ukraine. Iran intensified its attacks on oil and transportation facilities in the Middle East after Ayatollah Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader of Iran, pledged to close the Strait of Hormuz. The market is responding less to these?statements, which sound like an attempt to lower oil prices again. Volkmar Baur said this in reference to recent remarks from the U.S. government about a possible quick end to the conflict. On both sides of Atlantic, markets increased bets that monetary tightening would occur on the expectation that rising oil prices will stoke inflation. Brent futures were up on Friday as the U.S. tried to calm supply concerns. The U.S. issued a license to countries for a period of 30 days to purchase Russian oil and petroleum product stranded in the sea. The International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of crude oil, a record amount. Some analysts have argued, however, that the emergency measures taken to alleviate oil supply disruptions could be sending a negative message to the markets. They may indicate that world leaders do not see much room for a quick de-escalation. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket of currencies) has reached its highest level since November 28. This is partly due to the safe-haven appeal but also because America is a net exporter of energy. The index rose by 0.51%, to 100.22. It was expected to gain 1.4% this week. EURO AT A 7-1/2-MONTH-LOW The euro fell to its lowest level in August, $1.1438. This is a 0.62% drop. Investors are awaiting the European Central Bank's policy meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, traders are betting that the surge in oil prices will push the central banks to raise rates this year. Economists say that a prolonged closing of the Strait of Hormuz is needed to justify ECB monetary loosening in order to combat inflation. Citi, however, argued that the possibility of a few "insurance" increases could not be excluded, and that the central bank may open the door next week. Citi's main argument is that the ECB should not act because of uncertainty. The US dollar rose to 0.7894, its highest level since January. YEN IN INTERVENTION Territory The yen fell to 159.69 dollars, its lowest level since July 2024. Satsuki Katayama, Japan's Finance Minister, said that Japan was ready to take action against yen movements that affect people's daily lives. She also stated that she is in constant contact with U.S. authorities regarding foreign exchange issues. The U.S. carried out so-called rate check, which often precedes intervention. This helped drive a rally for Japan's currency. Analysts say that the recent unwillingness of officials to promote the yen could push it as low as 165 per dollar. Chris Turner, head forex strategy at ING and a proponent of Japan's intervention, said: "The third option, a fully joint intervention with U.S. Federal Reserve, might be more lasting, as it taps into the idea that Washington is prepared to combat the recent dollar strength." He added that "the problem for the authorities in Tokyo, Washington and London is that until energy prices are reversed, the dollar/yen won't be able to fall sustainably." The Australian dollar fell 0.70% against the greenback, to $0.7027. (Reporting from Stefano Rebaudo, Milan; Rocky Swift, Tokyo; Editing and Lincoln Feast by Pooja Deai and Lincoln Feast)
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Japan considers whether to purchase Russian crude oil following US sanctions waiver
An official from the?industry?ministry said that Japan would consider buying Russian crude oil after the U.S. granted a 30-day waiver of?sanctions amid the Iran War, taking into account international conditions and its own?national interest. The U.S. waiver permits countries to purchase sanctioned Russian crude oil and petroleum products that are currently stranded on the sea. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described this as a move to stabilize the global energy market, which has been?roiled by Iran's war. Narumi hosokawa, the deputy general-director of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry's (METI) immediate crisis management, said, "We will examine the issue in the light of various international circumstances and Japan’s national interests." Another METI official stated that Russian crude oil is essential for a stable energy supply. However, Tokyo must continue to take "appropriate" measures while balancing broader international coordination and the discussions of the 'Group of Seven' with its own national interests. In 2025, Japan will import 94% of crude oil from the Middle East, and 93% of those shipments will pass through the Strait of Hormuz which is controlled by Iran. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has virtually blocked the flow of oil through?the Strait. Officials said that Tokyo will release 80 million barrels from its strategic reserves - equivalent to 45 days' supply - to mitigate global disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. The government requested that domestic refiners use crude oil released from strategic reserves to ensure domestic petroleum supplies. The government's request does not limit the export of excess products generated during the refining processes. Ryosei Acazawa, Japan's industry minister, said earlier Friday that the country's refiners were seeking alternative crude oil supplies from other regions like Central Asia, South America and the U.S. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Yuka Obayashi)
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CEE ECONOMY - Romanian inflation eases more quickly than expected, but the outlook for rate cuts is clouded by war
Inflation in Romania was lower than expected for the month of February, but the uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East clouded the outlook on interest rate reductions. The policymakers have been unable to reduce interest rates due to a spike in inflation that has occurred after the electricity prices increased and the coalition government raised taxes in August last year in order lower the largest deficit in the European Union. Analysts were divided on whether or not the bank would cut rates until after the impact of higher taxes and electricity prices had faded. After the start of the Middle East war, analysts polled earlier this month expect the first bank cut to be in the second half. Data from the National Statistics Board shows that consumer prices increased 9.31% over the past 12 months, down from the 9.62% of the previous month, and below analyst expectations of 9,4%. Prices increased by 0.59% in the last month. The central bank raised its inflation forecast in February to 3.9%, slightly higher than originally expected. Governor Mugur Isarescu played down expectations of a rate reduction before there were clear signs that the inflation was "strongly declining". The government has decided to cap the gas prices for households until April 2027. This is a positive step for inflation. The government announced on Thursday that it would partially offset the diesel prices for transporters. Finance Minister Alexandru?Nazare also said he expects "a moderate rise?in inflation." The government aims to have a deficit of 6.2% in 2026, down from 7.7% last year and more than 9% in the previous year. Parliament is expected approve the budget before end-March. (Reporting and editing by Toby Chopra; Luiza Ilie)
ASEAN Ministers call for an end to the Middle East War as the crisis rumbles trade and energy
ASEAN's foreign and economic ministers called on Friday for an immediate end to the Middle East war, and stated that the effects of high oil prices and disruptions in trade have already impacted Southeast Asia's economy.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has begun implementing measures to combat the economic impact. Governments are moving quickly to conserve electricity, stabilize domestic markets, and protect sectors like tourism that are vulnerable.
Ma, the Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs, said: "We have expressed our serious concern about the?situation? in the Middle East? and its impact on the region. We also stressed the importance?of an immediate cessation?of hostilities." Theresa Lazaro spoke at a press briefing?after an ASEAN special meeting on the crisis. She added that ASEAN had called for all parties to show the greatest self-restraint.
As 'concerns about the Iran conflict intensified, the?Philippines convened a special meeting. The?ministers urged that global energy supply chains be kept open, and regional mechanisms activated to reduce the economic fallout.
Crude oil has been trading at around $100 per barrel due to concerns about supply. These fears have been intensified by the promise of Iran's supreme leader that he will keep the Strait?Hormuz closed, which is the route used for a quarter of the world's oil supplies.
The economic ministers from the 11 member bloc stated that the escalating conflicts have had broader economic impacts beyond the region. This is due to the 'increased volatility of global energy markets, and the disruption of important maritime and supply chain routes.
Lazaro stated that the Philippines is considering purchasing oil from Russia. She did not provide any further details.
The ministers of economics have warned that the region is particularly 'vulnerable' to future shocks due to its 'exposure to global oil & LNG supply routes. They added that strengthening supply chain resilience and accelerating renewable energy conversions would be crucial to maintaining economic stability.
(source: Reuters)