Latest News

Indonesia Minister says high oil prices may cause budget deficit to exceed mandated limit

Indonesia Minister says high oil prices may cause budget deficit to exceed mandated limit
Indonesia Minister says high oil prices may cause budget deficit to exceed mandated limit

The senior Indonesian economic minister stated on Friday that the government may impose an additional tax on certain commodities such as palm oil if it 'needs' to reduce the impact of rising global oil prices on the budget.

Airlangga Hartarto said that Indonesia, as a global commodity powerhouse, the world's biggest producer of nickel and palm oil, could impose additional tax on nickel, copper, and gold.

President Prabowo said that austerity measures can be taken to mitigate the effects of the?rising oil prices in the world'.

Airlangga, a government modeller, said that if oil prices remained high due to the Iran War it would be hard to maintain the fiscal deficit within the legal mandate of 3% GDP without cutting spending or reducing the economic growth.

He said that he would have to consider these scenarios and the possibility of issuing an emergency order in the event the deficit limit was exceeded.

He said that the government had 'predicted three scenarios for predicting?how the Middle East War could impact Southeast Asia’s largest economy. He said that under the first scenario where the Middle East war lasted five months, and crude oil was $86 per barrel in this year, the rupiah fell to 17,000 against the dollar. This would mean the growth rate would remain at 5.3% but the fiscal surplus would reach 3.18%.

Airlangga stated that if crude oil averaged $97 the growth rate would fall to 5.2%, and the deficit would reach 3.53%. In the worst-case scenario, crude would average $115. This would result in a deficit of 4%. The oil prices continued to rise on Friday, as the Middle East conflict and resulting disruptions in the Gulf outweighed U.S. measures to reduce supply concerns. Brent futures May LCOc1 rose?88 cents or 0.9% to $101.34 per barrel at 0918 GMT. This is a 9% weekly rise. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for April CLc1 rose 26 cents or 0.3% to $95.99 per barrel, resulting in a weekly increase of 6%.

Goldman Sachs forecasted on Friday that Brent oil prices would be over $100 per barrel in March, and $85 in May due to the Middle East war, the damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East, and the disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz.

(source: Reuters)