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In coordinated raids in northeast Nigeria, 15 militants islamists are killed
Residents and military sources said that Islamist militants have killed at least 12 soldiers in coordinated attacks in the northeast of Nigeria. The attacks against armed forces are intensifying. Aid groups report that a 17-year Islamist rebellion in the?the?region has resulted in thousands of deaths and 2 million displaced people, despite major campaigns. The attacks in Kukawa and Dalwa, as well as Goniri, came just days after an attack on a military post in Ngoshe. This shows the ability of militant groups to strike multiple fronts at once. Boko Haram fighters and Islamic State West Africa Province, (ISWAP), swept into Kukawa District in Borno State before dawn on Monday. They pushed towards the nearby camp in a 3-hour battle. A?military?source' said that troops retook camp, but not before killing the commanding officer as well as five other soldiers. Karta Maina ma'aji Lawan confirmed the attack and the death of the officer. Shetima Isa, resident and traditional leader in Dalwa, reported that militants had allegedly killed two soldiers, three residents and set more than 250 houses ablaze. Another soldier reported that insurgents attacked the Goniri base of the Yobe state neighbour, killing four soldiers, and setting buildings and vehicles ablaze. Sani Uba, a military spokesperson, said that troops had repulsed several coordinated attacks against?military locations in the northeast and that all areas remained under firm control. Uba stated that "unfortunately, some brave and gallant soldiers, including an outstanding Kukawa officer, paid the ultimate cost" in the engagements. He said that ground forces were accompanied by air support in conducting follow-up missions in the affected area, and cordon-and search missions were continuing?in nearby village where wounded militants are reported to be hiding. Nigerian military raids have increased this year in an effort to renew the offensive against the insurgents. However, ISWAP and Boko Haram are continuing to exploit the difficult terrain, porous borders, and thin state presence throughout the northeast. The latest attacks occurred just hours after military analysts had warned that an ISWAP attack was likely. (Reporting and writing by Ahmed Kingimi, Elisha Gbogbo, Editing by Andrew Cawthorne).
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Aluminium reaches four-year highs due to Middle East shipping disruptions
Aluminum prices reached four-year-highs on Monday as fears about prolonged shipping disruptions due to the U.S./Israeli war in the Middle East fueled a concern over supplies of the metal. Benchmark aluminium was down?1.5% to $3,394 per metric ton by 1711 GMT, from $3,544 earlier. This is the highest price since March 2022, when the metal prices for transport, construction, and packaging reached a record of $4,073.50. The conflict in the Middle East virtually closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which aluminum produced in that region is shipped to the U.S.A. and Europe. Ed Meir, Marex analyst, said that the Europeans were particularly worried by this Gulf Aluminum stoppage as it coincides with Mozal's planned shutdown in October. "Some producers want to draw down stock from outside the area to fulfill their obligations. But?we suspect that this will be difficult due to the high concentration of Russian metals on the exchange, which are currently sanctioned. And the low levels of inventories in general." In December, South32 said its 560,000-metric-ton-per-year capacity Mozal smelter would be placed on care and maintenance from mid-March, after talks with utilities and Mozambique's ?government failed to yield a new power deal. Concerns about supply have turned the contango or discount for the cash aluminum contract?over the next three months into a premium. On Friday it climbed to $47.4 per tonne, its highest level since February 2022. It was previously around $22 per tonne. The prices of aluminium on the curve of?maturity going out to 2036 have been backwardated. The soaring?oil prices have also impacted the demand for industrial metals, as well as the dollar's strength. Copper rose?0.6%, to $12,943 per ton. Zinc rose 0.9%, to $3,327. Lead fell 1%, to $1,933. Tin rose 0.3%, to $50,235. Nickel lost 0.5%, to $17.385. Reporting by Pratima Dasai. Mark Potter, Tomasz Janowowski and Mark Potter edited the article.
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UAE's UN envoy urges deescalation in US-Israeli conflict with Iran
The United Arab Emirates Ambassador to the United Nations at Geneva demanded on Monday a de-escalation in 'the U.S. - Israeli war?on Iran and a return of negotiations. Since the beginning of the war on February 28, oil prices have risen as major producers have cut back on supplies. Stock markets have also plummeted. Iran has fired at Gulf States that host U.S. bases, disrupting travel and business. "De-escalation, de-escalation, de-escalation. We will continue to maintain this position, which is what we are known for," said Ambassador Jamal Jama al Musharakh in Geneva. Since the war began, Iran has been launching drones and missiles at six Gulf States including the UAE. The ambassador stated that there have been more than 1,400 attacks against the UAE over the past few days, which resulted in the deaths of four civilians as well as the injuries of 114 others. The envoy expressed concern over the attacks by Iran against civilian infrastructure, such as desalination plants and energy facilities. Any further strikes of this nature would be?inacceptable,' he said. He added, "We're also prepared to protect these important locations." Al Musharakh said that attacks on the UAE and regional neighbours violated the principle of "good neighborliness" as well as the path to finding peaceful solutions. He said that despite the fact that his country was being attacked in an "unwarranted" manner, UAE bases would not have been used to attack Iran. U.S. officials say Washington aims to destroy Iran's nuclear and missile programme. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, said that he is not interested in negotiations with Tehran. He also suggested that war will end when Iran's military and leadership are no longer in place. (Reporting and editing by Timothy Heritage, Olivia Le Poidevin)
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Putin: Energy crisis is here, Russia ready to cooperate with Europe
On 'Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the Iran War had triggered a global crisis of energy and warned that oil production that relies on the Strait of 'Hormuz for transport could come to an end soon. Putin has signaled again, however, that Russia is ready to provide oil and gas to Europe. Russia is the second-largest oil exporter in the world and has the largest natural gas reserves. Putin stated that, at a meeting with Russi's top oil and gas producers and government officials, Moscow was willing to work with European clients again, if they wanted a return to non-politicized, long-term cooperation. We have never refused to work with Europeans. We are also ready to work with Europeans. We need to hear from them that, "They are ready and willing work with us in order to ensure sustainability and stability," Putin stated. Putin said that Russian companies should also take advantage of current'situations in the Middle East. He did note, however, that the price spike was likely temporary. Oil prices topped $100 per barrel on Monday, reaching a level not seen since 2022. The Strait of Hormuz is now effectively closed, as it's one of the key chokepoints for oil transit, and the Strait of Hormuz carries about a fifth of all global oil and LNG flows.
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Back to the 70s? Investors prepare for the return of stagflation
Investors now seriously consider the possibility that a war in the Middle East may create a stagflationary shock, as it did fifty years ago when disruptions to global energy supply sent inflation soaring and harmed growth. Kaspar Hense is the portfolio manager of RBC BlueBay Asset Management. If oil prices continue to rise, the safe-haven status for government bonds, and all other assets, is at risk. Five charts show how stagflation could affect the markets. OIL IS THE KEY Oil prices are at the forefront of the stagflation debate, and now the question is: how long can they continue to rise? Brent crude soared over $100 per barrel on Monday, and is on course for its largest daily increase since the COVID crises of 2020. The price of European wholesale gas has risen by 70% since the beginning of the year. This is bad news for inflation. Capital Economics stated that "a useful rule of thumb" is that an increase in oil prices by?5% adds about 0.1 percentage point to inflation on developed markets. High oil prices could also dampen the economic growth. According to the International Monetary Fund, for every 10% increase in oil prices that persists, there will be a 0.1-0.2% drop in global economic production. The oil price spikes that occurred in 1973, 1980 1990 and 2008 contributed to the U.S. recessions. DILEMMA OF THE CENTRAL BANK Central banks are in a difficult position, since rate increases to curb inflation could undermine the economic growth. Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee said to the Wall Street Journal that a "stagflationary climate as uncomfortable as any could be looming" on Friday. The markets now expect at least one hike by the European Central Bank this year. Before World War II, there was a 40% probability of a reduction. The Bank of England is also expected to raise rates this year, after previously pricing at least two rate cuts. Rainer Guntermann, a Commerzbank rates'strategist, said that he believes only a decline in oil prices can reverse the rate hike fears even though dovish minds at the ECB are also pointing out downside growth risks. THE MISSING LINKERS Investors have fled fixed-income assets where inflation will erode future returns. Short-term bonds are most sensitive. The yields on two-year gilts in Britain have risen by 50 basis points over the past week. This is the biggest increase since the UK budget crisis in 2022. German and Australian yields on two-year bonds have increased by more than 30 basis points in this time period, while U.S. yields on two-year bonds are only up 13 basis points. Investors are now looking at inflation linked debt where the principal as well as the interest rate is tied to inflation. The British five-year breakeven rates, the difference between inflation linked and nominal yields, have risen by 28 basis points since February. On Monday they reached almost 3.5% - their highest level since April last year. In the meantime, five-year inflation linked Treasury yields rose by 4.2 basis points in the past week, compared to a rise of 15 basis points in nominal yields. Eyes on the US If you are wondering if the economic and market hit on the U.S. will force Donald Trump to alter his course, remember that the stagflationary impact of the war is likely to hurt the U.S. much less than Europe or Asia. Michael Every, senior global strategist at Rabobank, said in a recent note that the U.S. is self-sufficient with many of the commodities that are being choked directly or indirectly through the (Strait of Hormuz). He also mentions helium and fertiliser, both of which are important in the semiconductor industry. It is not surprising that the U.S. market has performed better relative to other markets. The S&P 500 fell 2% last weekend compared to Europe's 5.5% drop and MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan index's?6.3% decline. U.S. Bonds also outperformed German bonds last week. The U.S. was already looking vulnerable to stagflation before the recent spike in energy prices. The economy lost jobs unexpectedly in February. Data this week will likely show an increase in U.S. Inflation. Where to hide? Investors dislike stagflation, because it damages stocks, bonds, and gold, which does not offer a yield. Analysts said that the precious metal fell?2% in value last week and again on Monday. Since the beginning of the war, the dollar has gained more than any other currency in the developed markets. Kit Juckes is the head of FX Strategy at Societe Generale. He said that "the U.S. can withstand a shock to oil prices, but there will be some political consequences." The same is not true for Europe and the UK, in particular.
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In coordinated raids in northeast Nigeria, 15 militants islamists are killed
Military sources and residents reported that Islamist militants had killed 12?soldiers? and three civilians during coordinated overnight attacks in northeast Nigeria. Aid groups report that despite major military operations, the '17-year' islamist insurgency has resulted in thousands of deaths and 2 million displaced people in the region. The attacks in Kukawa and Dalwa followed a similar assault on an 'army post' in Ngoshe, and demonstrated the ability of militant groups to strike a?multiple-front at once. Boko Haram fighters and Islamic State West Africa Province(ISWAP) fighters invaded Kukawa District in Borno State before dawn on Sunday, pushing toward the nearby military camp?in a 3-hour battle. A military source confirmed that troops retook camp, but not before killing the commanding officer as well as five other soldiers. Karta Ma'aji lawan, a Kukawa-based legislator, confirmed that the officer was killed and the attack. Shetima Isa, a resident and traditional leader in Dalwa said that militants had killed two soldiers, three residents and set more than 250 homes ablaze. Another soldier said that insurgents attacked the Goniri base in Yobe State, killing four soldiers, and setting buildings and vehicles on fire. The?Nigerian Army didn't respond to a comment request. Nigeria's military increased 'raids' on insurgent hiding places this year, as part of a renewed offensive. However, ISWAP, Boko Haram and other terrorist groups continue to take advantage of the difficult terrain, porous borders, and thin state presence across the northeast. The latest attacks occurred just hours after military analysts had warned that an ISWAP attack was likely. (Reporting and writing by Ahmed Kingimi, Elisha Gbogbo and Andrew Cawthorne).
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UN envoy: Israel will take action against anyone who promotes radical ideas that are in opposition to it.
Danny 'Danon, Israel's U.N. Ambassador, said that Mojtaba?Khamenei has the same radical ideas in the past and Israel will â€target†anyone who promotes radical adversities against it. Danon, a reporter at the United Nations, said that changing the leader of the country does not change the system. He was asked about Iran's decision to name Khamenei as the successor of his father Ali Khamenei who died on the first day the U.S. and Israel began their war against Iran last month. Danon stated that "the new leader is unfortunately more of the same ideologies, the same radical views, and... we will find anyone who promotes these 'radical ideas' against us. Danon said that the Iranian people should choose their own leader, adding: "We have to create conditions for them and we are doing this now." Danon responded that Israel and the U.S. are hunting Iran's missiles and "degrading" its capabilities. "So, it will be harder for them to attack civilians in Dubai or vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. It's not 100% certain, but they will find it harder to do so. "So, I'm optimistic." Danon said that the number of attacks is decreasing every day. The war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz where a fifth of world oil and LNG is shipped along Iran’s coast. (Reporting and editing by David Brunnstrom, David Ljunggren, and Mark Porter).
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Trump considers options to reduce energy prices amid Iran's strikes on markets
According to two sources familiar with the situation, U.S. president Donald Trump will review a range of options as soon as Monday to help tame the oil price, which has risen to over $100 per barrel because of the Iran War. The White House is concerned that the rise in oil prices could hurt U.S. consumers and businesses ahead of November's midterm elections, when Trump's Republican allies hope to keep control of Congress. The sources say that U.S. officials have been in Washington discussing with counterparts of the Group of Seven major countries a potential joint release of crude from strategic reserves. Sources who spoke on condition of anonymity said that other options include restricting U.S. imports, intervening on oil futures markets and waiving federal taxes. They also suggested lifting the Jones Act, which requires domestic fuel to only be transported on U.S. flagged ships. Analysts say that U.S. policies will have little influence on global oil markets, as long as fighting prevents Middle East oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Middle East oil accounts for about a fifth of the global supply. The White House is in constant contact with relevant agencies to discuss this issue. It's a priority for the president. "The White House?is in constant coordination with the relevant agencies on this important issue, as it is a top priority to the?president," White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers stated. Since the U.S.-Israeli strikes started on February 28, global crude oil prices are at levels they have not been seen since mid-2022. They briefly reached $119 per barrel. Gasoline and other fuels costs have also risen. The White House asked federal agencies last week to put together proposals that would help reduce pressure on gasoline and crude oil prices. This was reported previously. Sources said that top White House officials are involved in the discussions, including White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, and Stephen Miller. Analysts and officials in the oil industry have stated that the White House does not have the tools to curb the rising prices of oil unless it can restore the flow of oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway connects Iran and Oman and carries about a fifth of world oil. One of the sources who works with the White House said, "The options are marginal to symbolic and even 'deeply unwise.'" The energy market turmoil comes at a delicate time for the president, who has been trying to keep fuel prices low to send a strong economic message to voters. The rise in fuel and oil prices could have a ripple effect on the economy and increase consumer and transportation costs. The White House's plan to provide backstop insurance and naval escorts for tankers travelling the Strait of Hormuz has so far failed to increase shipping through this vital waterway. (Reporting and editing by Will Dunham; Jarrett Renshaw)
Russell: Compounding errors, narrow self-interest and narrow ROI threaten global fuel shortage
The United States, China and other major countries are making miscalculations, and retreating to their narrow interests, which threaten to turn the conflict in Iran into an international crisis for the supply of refined oil products. The media focuses a lot on the price for crude oil. Brent crude futures, which are the benchmark, jumped up to 20% in the early Asian trading on Monday, reaching $111.04 per barrel. This is the highest level since July 2022.
The price of refined fuels, such as gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, has risen even more than crude oil. These are the fuels that consumers buy.
Jet fuel prices led the explosive rise in refined products prices last week, followed by Singapore spot prices
This price is still 66.7% above the $93.45 per barrel which was the case on February 27th, the day before the United States and Israel began an aerial campaign against Iran.
Singapore gasoil (the building block of diesel and jet fuel) reached $123.39 per barrel on 4 March, its highest price since September 2023, and a 33.5% increase from the closing price on 27 February.
The product markets of Asia have begun to reflect a shortage in the supply of fuels essential for keeping economies running.
According to commodity analysts Kpler, the effective closure of Strait of Hormuz will result in a reduction of 18 million barrels of crude oil and products per day. This is roughly divided into 14 million bpd of raw crude and 3,000,000 bpd of finished products.
The market is still not convinced that Iran will not attack any vessel attempting to pass through the Strait.
The Trump administration and Israel made a strategic mistake by attacking Iran without closing the Strait of Hormuz.
As with most analysts and probably Gulf governments, I assumed that this conflict would be similar to previous flare-ups.
It was assumed that everyone would act rationally, and not attack oil production or transportation infrastructure. After all, it's in no one's best interest to stop the flow of crude and its products.
It turns out that if you say to a religious dictatorship that you want a regime change, that government will not feel compelled to follow the previous rules.
The decision by Iran to attack its Gulf neighbours, which host U.S. bases, has rewritten all previous calculations regarding the conflict.
Gulf countries Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are highly dependent on oil, fuel, and liquefied gas exports. Their revenue has been severely cut.
Dubai, as one of the Emirates is increasingly dependent on being the financial and tourism centre for the region, both sectors are now suffering a major?hit due to the ongoing conflict.
MULTIPLY MISCALCULATIONS
Now, the compounding mistakes of Trump's administration are becoming more evident.
Their stop-gap solutions have not been well received by the market.
One thing is to provide insurance and maybe even naval escorts. It's another to guarantee safe passage for hundreds of ships each week.
If Iran were to hit a fully loaded crude tanker using a ballistic rocket, the situation would be far worse than it currently is.
It's like giving cookies to an elephant. It is nice, but not very effective.
Asia's refiners have already begun to scramble for crude oil from suppliers outside of the Strait of Hormuz.
What will be the probable outcome of this?
The price of crude oil will increase, and as the Strait closes, the more the region will be short of refined products and crude.
In response to the looming shortage, countries with refinery capacity will concentrate on their own domestic needs and reduce exports of fuels. This will exacerbate the shortage of refined product. Reports indicate that China's major state-owned refining companies have been ordered to stop exports.
Refineries in South Korea and India are reducing refinery production.
Beijing's authorities must ask themselves:?how much longer before the Chinese economy is affected by the decision to stop supplying refined fuels to nations that import them?
This is yet another miscalculation which will be more expensive than increasing fuel exports in order to help meet demand.
China exports about 600,000 barrels of refined products per day.
It is the only major oil producer with a significant amount of spare capacity, and an estimated crude oil stockpile of over 1 billion barrels.
The level of stocks means that China could refine oil at the current rate for three years even if imports were to drop to zero.
China could, in effect, use its massive stockpiles to boost refinery runs, increase exports, and ease the looming crisis of supply.
It would be highly profitable and also gain favor with nations that import fuels, which may otherwise face a shortage.
Kpler reports that Australia is Asia’s largest fuel importer. It takes?about 900,00 bpd.
Imagine a country that could not meet the demand. This would lead to shortages.
The government must prioritise the production of food and its delivery as well as keeping as much as possible of the economy running.
A brave Australian government might tell China that it would not be able to ship any more iron ore due to diesel shortages, unless Beijing supplied refined fuels.
China imports about two thirds of its iron from Australia. Without these flows, its steel industry will be severely curtailed and this in turn will have a devastating effect on manufacturing and construction.
This point is only possible if the Strait of Hormuz is largely closed, and if countries are guided by their own narrow, short-term interests.
It is unfortunate that the political leaders are not able to understand the strain they put on the energy system. Their actions show that they only see their country's problems, without understanding that this is a global problem that requires global solutions.
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These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
(source: Reuters)