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Russell: China's thermal coal production drops, but prices of imported coal in Asia rise amid the Iran war.

Although the Iran war has impacted crude oil and natural gas prices, its impact on coal has been muted. Prices for thermal grades are quietly rising to multi-year heights.

The conflict between the United States of America and Iran has led to the loss of about 10% of world crude oil, and a fifth of LNG, but thermal coal supplies remain largely unaffected. Even though the cost of shipping and producing has increased due to higher fuel prices.

Coal prices are not solely driven by the?Iran War. Other factors, such as low Chinese production and Indonesian regulations, may be more influential.

According to commodity analysts Kpler, Asia's seaborne thermal coal imports are expected to have their best month since December in May.

The imports of thermal coal in Asia are expected to hit 76.26 millions metric tons by May, up 23 percent from April. This is also higher than the 72.83 million that were imported in May 2012.

All of the top buyers in the region have seen gains.

China, the largest coal importer in the world, is on course to receive 22.63 millions tons of seaborne thermal coal, up from 16.3 million tons in April, and the highest since January.

China's appetite to import is driven by a weaker domestic production. April production was 385.63 millions tons, down from 440.62 in March and also 1% lower than April of last year.

China's first four-month output fell by 0.1%, to 1.58 billion tonnes.

The fact that China's thermal electricity production, which is largely coal-fired?rose by 3.6% during the first four month of the year suggests that the supply-demand balance in China has been tightened, encouraging imports.

The Shanxi coal mine disaster, the worst in 17 years at a metallurgical mine that killed 82 people last Friday may cause a further shortage of coal as authorities increase safety inspections in both thermal coal and coking coal mining.

China's increasing import demand has helped to lift prices?of grades it seeks. The commodity price reporting -agency Argus assessed Indonesian coal, which had an energy content 4,200 kilocalories/kilogram (kcal/kg), at $64.43 a tonne in the week ending May 22. This was a three year high and up by 42% from the end of last.

Kpler predicts that India, as the second largest importer of thermal coal, will see arrivals of 13,78 million tons in May. This is the highest since June last years and 7.3% more than the 12,84 million recorded in April.

Last week, heat waves drove electricity demand to new records. This boosted demand for coal-fired generators.

INDONESIA CHANGES

The world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia, announced regulatory changes last week that will have a significant impact on the way cargoes are traded.

Indonesia intends to "take control" of the coal trade, by directing exports via a state-owned company that will control contracts and price.

The government has said that it will honor existing long-term agreements, but it has also stated it reserves the rights to review the prices of such deals.

By implementing a state control on exports, the government hopes to?stop under-invoicing' and collect more revenue.

It's possible that the trade flow will be affected if there is still uncertainty about how the new system works in practice.

Japan's thermal coal imports are expected to increase from 6.63 millions tons in April to 7.59 million tonnes in May. South Korea's arrivals will be 6.73 million tons, which is the highest since January, and up from 4.79 million tons in April.

Both countries in North Asia are among the top four coal importers, and they are also the best positioned to switch from LNG imported natural gas to coal-fired electricity generation.

Due to the Iran War, both spot and contract LNG prices are likely to rise sharply. Japan and South Korea may therefore seek ways to maximize coal-fired power generation.

The price of high grade Australian thermal coal has risen as a result. The weekly assessment of Newcastle?Port rose to $133.09 per ton during the week ending May 22. This is up from $131.80 and only slightly below the 18-month-old high of $140.53 set in early April.

Australia is the second largest coal exporter and may be in a better position to capitalize on any disruptions to Indonesian coal shipments due to regulatory changes. Its lower-grade coal could replace Indonesian coal.

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These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)