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Gold falls from its seven-week high as US inflation data is looming
Gold prices fell on Monday, as investors took profits following a seven-week high. Meanwhile, markets waited for new clues from U.S. inflation figures to determine the Federal Reserve's rate policy. As of 0200 GMT, spot gold was down 0.5% to $4,322.28 an ounce. After a weaker than expected?U.S. jobs data. U.S. Gold futures dropped 0.4% on Monday to $4,381.60. Gold is slightly lower as it succumbs a little to profit-taking after last week's NFP-inspired gains. This is more of a natural stabilisation than a significant shift in sentiment. I expect gold will remain above $4,300 in the near term. The U.S. economy lost jobs unexpectedly in July, and the previously reported gains in employment for the previous two months have been revised dramatically lower. The futures market then changed the odds that a rate increase would occur at the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting on September 15-16 from a more likely-than not chance to a less-than-even possibility. Gold is more attractive than income-generating assets in a low interest rate environment, since it does not earn interest. The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, will be released on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index on Thursday. Waterer said that "soft readings would make the case for a rate hold and open up a new path to further gold upside. Middle East uncertainty is a persistent risk factor as any renewed escalation in oil prices could put pressure on 'the metal. Iran has said that it is close to a final agreement with Oman, defining new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the U.S. still needs to meet several conditions in order for the strategic waterway to be reopened. Silver spot fell by 0.2%, to $63.45 an ounce. Platinum lost 0.1%, to $1.742.50, and palladium dropped 1.1%, to $1.362.97. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu sahu in Bengaluru. Ashitha Shivaprasad is based in Bengaluru.
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Australia tightens restrictions on two Northern Minerals shareholders who are ordered to divest
The Australian government has tightened restrictions on two Northern Minerals shareholders who were ordered to 'divest their shares over national security concerns,' the?miner reported. This is a further scrutiny of Chinese investment in the rare-earths developer. Northern Minerals has developed the Browns Range Heavy Rare Earths Project in Western Australia. Western governments are looking to reduce their reliance on China as a source of these minerals. The Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers, ordered in May that six offshore shareholders of Northern Minerals divest all their shares over concerns that Chinese-linked groups were seeking to control the rare earths miner. Chalmers said it had amended interim instructions for Hong Kong Ying Tak and Real International Resources registered in the British Virgin Islands, as well as Hong Kong Qogir Trading & Service. According to the revised directions, Real and Qogir are not allowed to dispose of their shares until the proposed sale has been notified?to the Treasurer in order for him/her to confirm the buyer isn't an associated party. In May, the six shareholders were required to sell a total of 1.68 billion Northern Minerals shares by July 2 to non-associated parties. The ASX200 index had fallen 0.3% by 0026 GMT, despite the share price of Northern Minerals rising as high as 3.9%. (Reporting and editing by Sherry Jacobi-Phillips, Subhranshu S Ahu, Melanie Burton in Melbourne. Additional reporting by Rajasik Mukherjee)
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Oil prices rise on the uncertainty surrounding the reopening Hormuz
Oil prices rose Monday?on the uncertainty of a reopening the Strait?of Hormuz any time soon. Iran said a?deal with Oman?defining?new shipping?lanes? was in its final phases?but?insisted that the U.S. still must meet other conditions. Brent crude futures increased 91 cents (1.09%) to $84.46 a bar by 0056 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures also rose 61 cents (0.78%) to $78.79 a bar. Both benchmarks fell more than 7% in the last week, on the hope that Iran and Oman would soon reach a deal that would lead to the reopening of Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz carried a fifth of the world's crude oil before the war. Iran claimed on Sunday that it was "finalizing" a deal with Oman, but reiterated that waterway access would be restored only after Washington met certain conditions. Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. Abbas Araqchi, Iran's Foreign Minister, said on Sunday that Iran and the U.S. have not begun talks. Tehran won't start any as long as Washington violates a June interim agreement. A Saudi oil plant has been attacked in a "further attack on supply". The Iran-aligned Houthis claimed they 'hit' Saudi Aramco Jazan refinery two days after 'the kingdom signed a pact of defence with Sunni Muslim friends Turkey and Pakistan to respond to the growing regional 'instability' caused by the U.S./Israeli war against 'Shi'ite Iran. Separately, ADNOC of the United Arab Emirates said that 15 of their vessels were attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
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Oil prices rise in the Gulf amid confusion and Asian stock markets edge higher
The Asian share market matched Wall Street's gains on Monday, after a weak U.S. employment report reduced the risk of an increase in borrowing costs near-term. However, a lack progress?in Gulf Peace talks led to oil prices?creeping?higher. Iran announced on Sunday that it was nearing the final stages of a deal that would define new shipping lanes for the Strait of Hormuz. However, the Iranian government reiterated that this waterway will only be reopened once the United States meets other conditions. Brent crude increased by 0.9% to $84.32 per barrel, as the shipping volume through this vital waterway was minimal. U.S. crude rose by 0.7% to $79.74 per barrel. Fuel costs are on the rise again, raising the stakes for Wednesday's U.S. consumer price report. Analysts expect a 0.1% increase in the headline figure and 0.2% for the core. A positive surprise could reignite speculation about a Federal Reserve hike next month. Michael Feroli is the chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan. He said that our forecast of core CPI at 0.22% was "probably not firm enough" to trigger a Fed hike at its September meeting. However, repeated readings closer to 0.3% might do the trick. We are looking for a rebound in the prices of core goods after a period of two months where they have fallen. The futures markets has reduced the probability of a move in September to 44% from 67% one week ago. Wall Street closed at new records on Friday as the pullback in interest rate risk helped Treasuries rally. Japan's Nikkei jumped 0.6% Monday while South Korea gained 0.5%. The broadest MSCI index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan grew by 0.3%. DOUBLE DIGIT GROWTH IN EARNINGS In Europe, EUROSTOXX Futures 50 and DAX Futures both fell by 0.1% while FTSE Futures dropped 0.4%. S&P futures fell 0.1% while Nasdaq was little changed after a week of positive earnings reports. Analysts from BofA stated that earnings per share were up 30% over the previous year, even after Alphabet's and Amazon's investment gains had been excluded. The 76% EPS rate was the highest since 2021. In a note, they said: "AI is still the leader, with median earnings growth of 28%, compared to 12% for non AI related stocks. However, consensus expects AI's growth to slow down to 16% in the next quarter." This week's earnings are lower, but semiconductor maker Applied Materials and networking equipment?maker Cisco as well as cloud infrastructure technology provider CoreWeave all have positive results. Bond markets saw yields for 10-year Treasuries a little higher, at 4.673%. The market is bracing itself for $125 billion of new issuance in the coming week. The U.S. Dollar had fallen sharply due to the drop in yields, and a general improvement of risk. Investors are still wary about intervening if the yen falls too low. The drop in yields has helped gold that does not pay interest to hold its $4,342 per ounce price after it had risen more than 7% over the last week. (Reporting and editing by Shri Navaratnam.)
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Taylor Farms recalls salsa and guacamole over salmonella risk
Taylor Farms announced on Sunday that it was recalling from retailers more than 12 'prepared food items' containing jalapenos. This includes salsas and guacamole. The California-based provider said that it had voluntarily pulled products with jalapeno in them due to a recall by Coast Citrus Distributors. It also stated that it was "no more" sourcing the peppers from a Mexican farmer who?supplied Coast Citrus, while it searches for alternative suppliers. The recall is being conducted as U.S. authorities investigate an outbreak of Salmonella linked to imported jalapeno peppers from Mexico. This outbreak, which began earlier this week, sickened 345 people in 27 states and resulted in 36 hospitalizations. Chipotle Mexican Grill, QDOBA and other restaurant chains have stopped using the peppers. Coast Citrus has recalled and informed customers of the remaining product. Taylor 'Farms has not received any reports of illnesses related to the voluntary recalled products, the statement added. Salmonella infections cause diarrhea, fever and stomach cramps, which can be severe for young children, elderly people, or those with weakened immune systems. The recall is being conducted amid increased scrutiny on food safety following an outbreak of cyclosporiasis, a parasitic disease linked to iceberg lettuce served by Taco Bell. It also coincides with renewed attention given to Chipotle’s previous foodborne illness outbreaks.
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British Columbia receives federal assistance when wildfires force evacuations
The Canadian federal Government said that it would assist British Columbia in the wake of a raging wildfire forcing thousands to flee. It will provide shelter and accommodation for residents who are displaced around Summerland, Peachland. Bald Range Wildfire has spread over 10,300 hectares as firefighters continue to fight the fire. Eleanor Olszewski is Canada's Minister of Emergency Management and Community Resilience. She said in a post on social media that she approved British Columbia's request for federal assistance to provide accommodation for those who were forced to flee their homes because of wildfires. The minister stated that he had asked federal officials to work with the provincial government to make sure the support reached those in need. Wildfire Service of British Columbia said that the hot, dry weather in southern British Columbia has continued to cause fires to spread. It said that poor visibility and "increasing" fires created new challenges for aviation and ground crew response. The turbulence, thick smoke and large fires hampered the operation of ten helicopters, including a night vision helicopter. It said that the province has 34 firefighters from Australia, five from New Zealand and 214 from Mexico who support 'hundreds' of provincial firefighter. Additional international resources are expected to arrive in the next few days. Reporting by Nivedita Balu, Toronto; Editing and proofreading by Alison Williams
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After 18 months of negotiations, Syria and Russia have reached an agreement on the future of Tartous & Hmeimim Bases
After?18 months? of intensive negotiating, Syria and Russia have reached an agreement to settle the future of Russian base?at Tartous?and Hmeimim?, according the Syrian Foreign Ministry. The ministry announced that the Syrian state will take over the management of civil facilities, such as Hmeimim Airport and the commercial berth at Tartous Port, allowing for their gradual integration into the civilian administration. The military sites would be converted into joint training and qualification centres, under new arrangements that preserve the interests of both parties. This transition was to be completed in three months. The Russian naval base at Hmeimim and?Tartous air?base has long been Moscow's main military footholds throughout the Middle East and Mediterranean. Since former President Bashar Al-Assad's ouster in December 2024, their future has been a subject of negotiation with Syria’s new leadership. In a separate statement, Syria's General Authority for Ports and Customs announced that Syria would assume control of the commercial sites operated by Russia in Tartous Port, including Pier No. In a separate?statement, Syria's General Authority for Ports and Customs said that the country would take over the commercial sites previously operated?by Russia at Tartous port, including Pier No. Last month, it was reported that Russia wanted to create a 'commercial logistics hub' at Tartous Port using the pier No. The restricted zone 4 is located outside the naval base. Both sides agreed that the hub would remain under Syrian control and all operations would be subject to approval from Syria's General Authority for Ports and Customs. Reporting by Tala Ramadan, Kinda Makieh, and Feras Dalatey; editing by Alison Williams
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Aramco Jazan facility fire extinguished, Saudi Arabia reports
The Saudi Energy Ministry reported that firefighters extinguished the fire at Saudi Aramco Jazan refinery, which broke out early Sunday morning. The fire was brought under control by Aramco's Industrial Security Teams and the authorities are completing the procedures to handle the incident. This is what the Saudi Energy Ministry said on X. The ministry did not say what started the fire. Jazan lies on the Red Sea, near the border of Yemen. Aramco closed its 400,000 barrels-per-day Jazan'refinery' on July 27, following an attack from Yemen's Houthi militants, which damaged the plant’s Integrated 'Gasification Combined Cycle' (IGCC) and tank farm 'area. The Houthis claimed to have struck Aramco facilities in Jazan and Yanbu at the time. The attacks raised concerns that the U.S./Israeli war on Iran, and Iranian attacks against shipping around the Strait of Hormuz could cause global disruptions. Amin Nasser, Aramco's chief executive officer, said that recent attacks on Aramco facilities caused production interruptions. However, he is confident that operations can be quickly restored. He claimed that the attacks had no financial or operational impact. Houthis have declared a blockade on Saudi Arabia at the Red Sea in response to what they claim is a Saudi siege against Yemen. Riyadh has denied this allegation. Reporting by Hatem Mahar; Editing and proofreading by William Mallard & Lincoln Feast.
Russell: The demand for crude oil in Asia is balanced by the ROI-China.
China is doing all the heavy lifting to reduce crude oil demand in?Asia as a way to compensate for the reduced shipments of Middle East oil due the the Iran?war. The world's largest oil importer reported arriving 8.41 million barrels a day (bpd), up from a near decade-low of 7.12 mln in June, but still 24.3% less than July last year.
When June and July imports combined, this gives a?average of 7.78 million bpd over the last two months.
The average for the three-month period ending in February was 11,99 million bpd. This is 4,21 million bpd less.
The United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran on 28 February. The conflict escalated to the point that the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down, cutting off the waterway which carried about 20% of crude oil and refined goods in the world before the start of war.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are two of the Middle East’s biggest crude exporters. They have been able to increase shipments outside the Strait of Hormuz. However, flows have fallen by about 5 million barrels per day.
Crude exports from the Middle East are mainly destined for Asia, which is the largest importer of crude oil. However, crude arrivals in Asia have dropped significantly.
According to Kpler's data, Asia imported 22.82 millions bpd of oil in July.
Although this was an increase from April's 18.77 millions bpd (which was the lowest since Nov 2015), July's imports still fell by about 4 million per day compared to the average of 26,89 million per day in the three-month period prior to the onset of the 'Iran conflict'.
The data shows that China's imports have dropped by about the same amount as the imports of Asia in the last two months.
Price Moves
China's decreased imports are partly due to price volatility. Brent futures hit a four-year peak of $126.41 per barrel on April 30 – a date when cargoes for June and July would have been scheduled. China has historically reduced imports as prices increase, but this drop is unprecedented.
Analysts estimate that China's crude oil stockpile is at least 1.2 million barrels, and could even be higher.
How long will China be able to balance crude oil prices in Asia?
Imports from China are expected to show a slight recovery in August as the cargoes which managed to leave the Strait of Hormuz despite the short ceasefire between Iran and the United States are delivered.
Kpler estimates that China's Middle East imports will reach 2.71 million barrels per day (bpd) in August. This is up from 2.43 millions bpd during July, and 1.42 million in June. Kpler estimates that China's crude oil imports in August will be 5.97 million barrels per day. This is up from 2.43 million bpd in July and the 1.42 million bpd of June, which was?the lowest ever recorded by Kpler going back to 2013.
September imports will likely be more telling, since flows from the Middle East are more restricted due to the sharply reduced shipments that have returned through the Strait of Hormuz following the failure of the ceasefire agreement between U.S. president Donald Trump and Tehran. Even if recent efforts to restore vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz prove successful, it may take several weeks before exports ramp up.
China's refiners have two options: they can continue to suppress their appetite for import crude and dip into inventories or bid for cargoes coming from outside the Middle East.
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These are the views of the columnist, who is also an author. (Editing by SonaliPaul)
(source: Reuters)