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Stocks rise as traders reduce rate hike bets, oil prices drop

Oil prices fell on Thursday, as higher inventories and lower forecasts of global demand offset geopolitical worries.

The U.S. Producer Price Data, which was unchanged since?July?, has reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve Rate hike next month. This helped tech stocks to propel the S&P 500 intraday record high.

The traders have reduced their bets for a rate hike in September, pricing a probability of 65% that the Fed will remain on hold next week compared to 50% on Wednesday.

After the producer prices data, gold prices pared their losses and U.S. Treasury rates extended their decline.

The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 7.32 points or 0.63% to 1,161.85.

WALL STREET TECH BOOSTS

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 113.90 or 0.21% to 53,884.17. The S&P 500 gained 55.76 or 0.72% to 7,8004.26. And the Nasdaq Composite rose by 235.69 or 0.89% to 26,824.18.

Mohit Kumar, an analyst at Jefferies said, "Earnings (for AI infrastructure names have been strong) and show no signs of slowdown on Capex," before saying the bank still had an overweight position in AI.

He added that "the background of high cash levels in the system, and Fed not increasing (Jefferies' view), should continue to support risky assets."

The STOXX 600 index in Europe rose by 0.12% while the FTSEurofirst 300 index grew by 3.09 points or 0.12%.

The MSCI broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan closed?0.96% higher and emerging market shares were 0.92% greater at 1,697.36.

US-IRAN DEADLOCK

Washington and Tehran exchanged accusations over Thursday's deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz. The United States said Iran failed to fulfill its obligations, and Iran countered that Washington did not deliver on the end of a blockade of Iranian port.

Brent crude futures dropped to $86.72 a barrel, a drop of 2.54% for the day. U.S. crude fell 2.7% to $81.00, on signs that demand was lower.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has lowered its forecast of world oil demand growth for 2026.

The euro zone, which is a major energy importer, and Japan are likely to be hit harder by high energy prices, while the United States appears relatively immune from oil shocks.

CURRENCY, BONDS

The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket of currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) fell by 0.1%, to 99.85. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.14%, to $1.154.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes dropped 7.29 basis points, to 4.619%. And the 30-year bond rate dropped 6 basis points, to 5.187%.

Analysts say that the U.S. budget deficit rising to $432 billion will likely?add upwards pressure to long-term borrowing rates.

Evelyne Liechti, Mizuho's?strategist, said that the PPI data, along with jobless claims, is the next test.

The Japanese yen rose 0.17% to 159.16 dollars per dollar.

The producer price index in Japan, which increased 7.2% from a year ago, reinforced expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates sooner than expected next month. Reporting by Chris Prentice, New York; editing by Sharon Singleton and Andrew Heavens.

(source: Reuters)