Latest News

Russell: The demand for crude oil in Asia is balanced by the ROI-China.

China is reducing crude oil demand across Asia by itself to compensate for the reduced Middle East shipments as a result of the Iran War. The world's largest oil importer reported arriving 8.41 million barrels a day (bpd), up from the near decade-low of 7.12 millions in June but still 24.3% less than July last year.

When June and July's "imports" are combined, the average for these two months is 7.78 million bpd.

The average for the three-month period ending in February was 11,99 million bpd. This is 4,21 million bpd less.

The United States and Israel launched an attack on Iran on 28 February. The conflict escalated to the point that the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down, cutting off the waterway which carried about 20% of crude oil and refined goods in the world before the war began.

Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, two of the Middle East’s largest crude exporters have been able to increase shipments outside the Strait of Hormuz. However, flows have fallen by about 5 million barrels per day.

Crude oil exports to Asia have dropped significantly. Asia is the largest importer of crude oil.

According to commodity analysts Kpler, Asia's total imports of oil in July reached 22.82 millions bpd.

Although this is an increase from April's 18,77 million bpd (which was the lowest since Nov 2015), July's imports are still about 4 million below the average of 26,89 million bpd for the three months before the start of the Iran conflict.

The data shows that China's imports have dropped by about the same amount as Asia's imports over the last two months.

Price Moves

China's reduced imports are partly due to price volatility. Brent futures hit a four-year peak of $126.41 per barrel on April 30 – a date when cargoes for June and July would have been scheduled. China has historically reduced imports as prices increase, but this drop is unprecedented.

Analysts estimate that China's crude oil stockpile is at least 1.2 million barrels, and could even be higher.

How long will China be able to balance crude oil in Asia with China?

Imports from China are expected to show a slight recovery in August as the cargoes which managed to leave the Strait of Hormuz despite the short ceasefire between Iran and the United States are delivered.

Kpler estimates that China's Middle East imports?will reach 2.71 million barrels per day (bpd) in August. This is up from the 2.43 million bpd of July, and the 1.42 mbpd of June. Kpler estimates that China's crude oil imports in August will be 5.97 million barrels per day. This is up from 2.43 million barrels per day (bpd) for July and 1.42 millions bpd for June, which was the lowest since 2013.

September imports will 'likely be more telling, given that flows from the Middle East are more restricted due to the sharply reduced shipments via the Strait of Hormuz following the failure of the ceasefire agreement between U.S. president Donald Trump and Tehran. Even if recent moves to restore vessel movement through the strait are successful, it will still take several weeks before exports ramp up and for these tankers to arrive at?Chinese port.

China's refiners have two options: they can continue to suppress their appetite for import crude and dip into stocks, or bid for cargoes coming from outside the Middle East.

You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.

These are the views of the columnist, an author for.

(source: Reuters)