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Oil prices rise, Asia stocks drift amid US-Iran stalemate
The oil prices rose Tuesday, as the negotiations between the U.S. & Iran on a peace agreement and the reopening of Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse. Meanwhile, Asian shares fell on the back of persistent uncertainty about?the global outlook for inflation. U.S. president Donald Trump responded on Monday to the Iranians' conditions for a deal by demanding that Iran compensate for those killed in wars and attacks, as well as protests. This rhetorical escalation is likely to complicate attempts to reopen this vital waterway. Brent crude futures climbed to $88.00 per barrel and U.S. oil futures slid to $82.45 after the contracts rose by about 5% on Sunday. Tony Sycamore is a IG market analyst. He said, "This will be a war attrition." "You can probably see the (oil market) sitting around the $75 to 95 range while we watch who blinks first." Fuel costs have risen again, raising the stakes in the U.S. consumer price report for July due on Wednesday. Expectations are for an increase of 0.2% in the core measure and?0.1% for the headline. A positive surprise could revive bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate hike next week. The odds are currently at a coin flip. Capital Economics' chief market economist, Jonas Goltermann said: "We believe the risks are skewed in favor of a hot print. This would likely drive a rebounding of rate expectations, and potentially, a renewed worry about stagflation." Overall, we remain of the opinion that the U.S. economic situation is a little hotter than "Goldilocks". This indicates higher interest rates." Due to the holiday in Japan on Tuesday, trading of U.S. Treasury bills in Asia was closed. However, futures prices fell, suggesting higher yields. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its policy decisions on Tuesday. It is expected that the central bank will keep rates at current levels. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fluctuated between losses and gains, and last was up 0.2%. South Korea's Kospi also rose 0.3% as the latest escalation in Gulf hostilities kept the market sentiment fragile. Nasdaq Futures rose 0.28%, while S&P500 futures gained 0.1%. Wall Street closed lower on Monday in the cash session. The EuroStoxx 50 futures fell 0.05% while the FTSE and DAX were flat. Nvidia announced overnight that it had partnered with six major banks to launch compute finance platforms, aiming to raise over $500 billion for AI infrastructure. This highlights the'scale of investment boom in this sector. Sycamore, IG's Sycamore, said: "A small piece of me wondered if this was how I felt when subprime mortgages became a mainstream item - an innovation that helped to trigger the GFC." The?yen, which was slipping below 159 dollars per dollar last week, and far from the previous?high of 155.20, after several suspected rounds, including one jointly by Japan and the United States, is back in the spotlight. Analysts at Nomura said that the market is likely to remain vigilant over further U.S. and Japanese yen buying intervention. Therefore, USD/JPY breaking 160 in the near term appears unlikely. The latest price action shows that there are a lot of USD/JPY buyers who have been buying dips after the pair has reached the 156-157 area for the first since May." The dollar was boosted by the recent rise in oil prices. It kept the euro from reaching a high of 1-1/2 months, as it traded last at $1.1546. Sterling, however, slipped from its one-month-old peak and changed hands at $1.3512. Spot gold rose 0.5% elsewhere to $4,409.81 per ounce.
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Five people have been killed in attacks by Russia on Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia and Kyiv, according to officials
Officials said that Russian attacks on Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia city early Tuesday morning killed five and injured 20 people. They also hit Kyiv and caused fires to spread in the capital. Ivan Fedorov, regional governor of Zaporizhzhia, said that 'Russian troops have used missiles and aerial bombardments on the city. He posted photos of burning buildings and vehicles. Air raid alerts were issued in both Zaporizhzhia, and Kyiv. The city's military administration reported that warehouses in the central district of Kyiv were on fire. One person was reported to have been injured. Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kiev, said that medical personnel had been dispatched in the central district. Kyiv’s air raid warning was lifted after a period of?40 minutes, and then issued again well past midnight. Witnesses?earlier reported hearing explosions in the city. (Reporting and editing by Chris Reese; Rosalba o'Brien, Lincoln Feast, and Chris Reese)
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Ukrainian prisoners describe torture and sexual abuse they suffered while detained in Russian custody
Former Ukrainian detainees as well as?Ukrainian officials, on Monday, accused Russia of torturing civilian and prisoners of war, keeping them incommunicado, and subjecting?thousands of people still held captive to beatings, shocks, and sexual abuse. Russia has rejected the claims made during a?informal U.N. Security Council Meeting. Its Deputy U.N. representative Maria Zabolotskaya called it "a campaign of disinformation" and claimed that Russian prisoners were being subjected "to torture and degradation, as well as moral and physical abuse." Khuan Levya-Garsiya is still an active member in the Ukrainian military. He claims that his Russian captors tortured him for 1,183 days. "Yes ... "Yes... "Anything that you can imagine can be done to humiliate and hurt a man without his consent. You can imagine anything, including verbal abuse, physical abuse and electrocution. All the things that can be done to someone in order to break them mentally. "It was all done to me and the majority of my comrades." Garsiya told the U.N. meeting that he had been lucky to survive, but two of his close friends died in Donetsk detention centers. He told the U.N. that prisoners were kept in "overcrowded bars without adequate conditions" where "almost everyone was sick with dysentery," and many were starving. He said that guards were targeting him because of his Latino surname, accusing him of being a "mercenary" and an "American spy". Leniie Umerova is a Crimean Tatar activist who was released as part of a prisoner swap in 2024. She said that she had been detained when trying to visit her seriously-ill father in Crimea. She accused Russia of torturing Ukrainians held in captivity and described her experience of being taken through "seven" detention facilities in a "carousel" of repression. Oleg Gushin, the head of the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War of the Ukrainian Government, said that Ukrainian prisoners are "killed and abused" while in captivity. He claimed that Kyiv identified "more than 30 places of detention" on Russian and Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia. While more than?9,000 Ukrainians were returned to their homes through exchanges, he said "thousands' remained in Russian captivity. Volodymyr Pavlichenko, Ukraine's Charged d'Affaires, called for increased international pressure on Russia to hold it accountable for the treatment of its prisoners. "WIDEPREAD AND SYMPATHETIC" U.N. Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Claudia Fuentes Julio stated that U.N. Monitoring showed "widespread and systematic torture and abuse of Ukrainian prisoners-of-war and civilian detainees" by Russian Federation authorities, including sexual violence. She said that since February '2022, the U.N. Office of the United Nations Human Rights High Commissioner had documented the death of 48 Ukrainian prisoners in custody due to torture, lack of medical care or other inhumane detention conditions. She stated that more than 95 percent of Ukrainian prisoners-of-war interviewed had reported torture or mistreatment. She stated that more than half of respondents also reported sexual violence. This included "rapes, gang-rapes, beatings while nude and beatings on the genitals. Electric shocks were given to the genitals or nipples. And degrading treatment with a sexualized tone." She stated that the U.N. had received "consistent reports of severe beatings using objects such as heavy belts and batons. Other forms of torture include electric shocks and dog attacks. Fuentes Julio stated that the OHCHR also documented torture and ill treatment of Russian and foreign nationals held as prisoners of war by Ukraine but on a "fundamentally different scale." She stated that about half of Russians and other third-country detainees interviewed had reported abuse in the initial stages of their captivity. (Reporting and editing by Stephen Coates; David Brunnstrom, Andrea Shalal)
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Prices of diesel rise due to tightening supply worldwide
U.S., and European Diesel prices rose sharply Monday after attacks on refineries and supply disruptions in Russia and Saudi Arabia. This is a concern for farmers who need fuel to plant in the Northern Hemisphere and harvest in the Southern Hemisphere. The U.S. ultra low sulfur diesel futures contract grew 7.4% on Monday to $4.19 per gallon, its biggest gain since July 13. The European diesel refining profit margins, which are measured by the difference between fuel prices and crude oil costs, increased nearly 10%. The surge came after confirmation that Ukraine had attacked a refinery located in Russia's Tatarstan Region?and Yemen's Houthis had also attacked the Jazan refinery, in Saudi Arabia. According to IIR Energy, the Jazan refinery was closed since July 27 because of an earlier attack by the Houthis. Plans to restart it were subsequently pushed back from August 15 until August 30. Bob Yawger, Mizuho's analyst, said that the?refinery attack has taken substantial amounts of diesel from the market. Fuel prices are largely driven by crude oil, but gains in diesel futures have outpaced U.S. West Texas intermediate futures and Brent Futures. Both settled at about 5%, as the hope of reopening Strait of Hornmuz appeared to fade, with the United States negotiating compensation demands with Iran. The ongoing Iran 'war' has led to a blockade of Strait of Hormuz, which has severely cut the global supply of diesel by cutting off the Middle East crude oil and fuel flow. In recent months, Ukraine intensified its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, leading Moscow to ban the export of gasoline and diesel up until January 2027. This further restricted global supply. As of July 31, the U.S. inventory of distillate fuels (which includes diesel and heating oil) was 107.2 million barrels. This is the lowest level for this time in a year since three decades. According to a preliminary survey by the. (Reporting from Shariq Khan, New York; editing by Daniel Wallis).
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Statement: Fire breaks out in a diesel tank at Libya’s Zawiya Oil Depot
Brega Petroleum Marketing Company released a statement saying that a fire broke out, along with a heavy smoke, in the diesel?tank at Zawiya Refinery in Libya on Monday after the tank was hit under circumstances that are still unknown. Brega, owned by the state oil company NOC, is responsible for fuel supply. Zawiya, the largest refinery in Libya, as Ras Lanuf has been shut down, is located around 40 km west of Tripoli. Its capacity is?120,000 barrels a day. It is linked to the 300,000 barrels per day Sharara oilfield. The?company stated that firefighter 'brigades' are battling the fire. It added that it was assessing damage and would update once the information is confirmed. NOC declared an extreme state of emergencies in the area after claiming that the tank with 4.5 million litres gasoline "was directly targetted". It called on the competent authorities to "immediately" intervene and begin an investigation into the incident. Unverified footage posted on the internet shows thick black smoke and huge flames in Zawiya. Two engineers working at the refinery stated that there is no suspension of operations. The incident occurred two days after the drone crash into an untreated tank of naphtha at Zawiya refinery early on Saturday morning, causing a leak that was controlled by staff. Reporting by Ayman Al-Warfalli, Ahmed Elumami and Muhammad Al Gebaly. Editing by Chris Reese, Nick Zieminski.
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Gold reaches a nine-week high as buying momentum increases amid inflation data
Gold prices rose on Monday to their highest level in nine weeks as investors were pushed by a bullish'momentum' and the fear of missing out. They also awaited important U.S. inflation figures to gauge Federal Reserve policy. By 2:45 pm EDT (1845 GMT), spot gold had risen 0.8%, to $4376.56 an ounce. The gold price reached its highest level since the 5th of June earlier in that session. Prices rose by 2.4% on Friday as labor department data showed a drop in nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. U.S. Gold Futures rose?0.5%, to $4,419.70. Bob Haberkorn is a senior market strategist at StoneX. It's a cautious trade, with China purchasing, the July CPI/PPI report due this week and a fear of missing out for now on a return to 4,500. Official data released last week showed that China's central bank increased its gold purchases in July. This is the largest increase since October 2023. Investors are awaiting the U.S. producer and consumer prices data, due Wednesday. The economists surveyed by predict that the CPI for July will have increased 3.4% compared to 3.5% in June. The CPI data will be crucial. "The CPI data is going to be important." According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in 52% of a rate increase in September and 81% in December. Bullion's non-yielding characteristics make it less appealing in environments with high interest rates. Iran announced that it was close to a final agreement with Oman, defining new shipping routes between the two countries through the Strait of Hormuz. However, they repeated their demand that other conditions must be met before reopening this strategic waterway. Silver spot rose by 3.1%, to $65.50 an ounce. Platinum gained 0.1%, to $1746.50. Palladium firmed up 0.2%, to $1380.17.
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Wall Street is under pressure as oil prices rise, and inflation and Hormuz are in the spotlight
Wall?Street indices retreated on Monday and oil prices rose over 4%. Markets were focused on the outlook of Federal Reserve?interest rate and a possible deal between?the U.S.A. and Iran for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has 'insisted' that the United States needs to meet several conditions before it can reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is fueling the uncertainty. As inflation data were due, gold drifted to a seven-week low. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average fall 0.25%, to 53,901.23, S&P 500 lose 0.11, to 7,749.16, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.42% to 26,577.28. U.S. stock prices hit a new record on Friday, after traders cut their bets about Fed rate hikes due to a weaker than expected jobs report. Investors paused before a week of economic data, and Europe's stock index was barely changed. The MSCI global stock index was barely changed in a volatile session. Iran announced on Sunday that the final stages of a deal between Oman and Iran regarding transit through the Strait of Hormuz were nearing. However, it reiterated that this waterway will only be reopened once the United States meets other conditions. The conditions include compensation, the end of sanctions and military threats. Brent crude futures rose 4.61%, to $87.40 a barrel. U.S. crude also jumped 4.63%, to $81.80. Wednesday's U.S. consumer price index will have a major impact on Fed officials' rate-setting decisions. Investors will also watch euro zone employment figures and U.S. consumer price figures to get a sense of the outlook for interest rates. The economists surveyed by are expecting the consumer price index data to show a 3.4% increase year-over-year on Wednesday. This is compared to a 3.5% rise the previous month. Mohit Kumar is a senior European analyst at Jefferies. He said that the key to this year's Fed hikes will be this week's report on inflation. Kumar said that if oil prices remained contained and moved lower than the current levels, the Fed would not need to raise rates. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index outside Japan closed up 0.61% to 1,628.74. Emerging market stocks rose by 11.05 points or 0.67% to 1,668.91. EARNINGS HELP POWER STOCK In recent weeks, stock markets have soared to record levels around the globe. This was largely due to strong corporate earnings. Analysts from BofA stated that earnings per share were 30% higher than the previous year, after Alphabet's and Amazon's investment gains had been excluded. The 76% rate of EPS growth matched the highest level since 2021. JPMorgan strategists revised their estimate of 2026 earnings per share to $365. This represents a 35% annual increase. They also raised their S&P500 price target from 7,800 to 8,000. It is currently 7,758. This week's earnings are lower, but include semiconductor maker Applied Materials, network equipment maker Cisco, and cloud infrastructure technology provider CoreWeave. BONDS AND CURRENCIES The yield of the benchmark U.S. 10-year notes increased 4.25 basis points, to 4.701%. This week, the market is expecting $125 billion worth of new issuance. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies such as the yen or?the Euro) rose by 0.16%, to 99.80. Meanwhile, the euro fell by 0.14%, to $1.1542. The Japanese yen fell 0.83%, to 159.12 dollars per yen. However, investors were still wary about intervention. A summary of the opinions expressed at their July meeting by Bank of Japan policymakers showed that they were concerned about inflation, which could force them to increase interest rates faster than expected. This strengthened the case for an interest rate hike in September. Reporting by Chris Prentice, Harry Robertson, and Wayne Cole, in New York; editing by Sharon Singleton and Jan Harvey, Andrew Heavens, and Nick Zieminski.
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Barrick says Newmont deal clears path for North American IPO
Barrick Mining's second-quarter profits were below estimates on Monday, as higher costs in its?gold?operations countered rising bullion price. The company also struck a $1.95billion deal with Newmont for the settlement of disputes regarding Nevada Gold Mines. Newmont has consented to Barrick’s planned initial public offer of its North American assets of gold, the companies announced in a press release. This opens the way for Barrick to complete an IPO by the end 2026. Barrick is searching for a new chief executive officer to lead its non-North American operations. Mark Hill, the CEO of Barrick North America, has stated that he would prefer an internal candidate. Barrick shares were trading 8% lower on the Toronto Stock Exchange as of 1:00 pm. ET (1800 GMT). Gold miners are under pressure from higher fuel prices as the U.S./Israeli conflict against Iran disrupts oil supplies and keeps energy costs high. Barrick says fuel costs, lower grades, and higher royalties all contributed to the 11% increase in gold?all-in-sustaining costs. According to LSEG data, the Canadian gold miner posted an adjusted profit per share of 82 cents for the three-month period ended?June 30. This compares with the analysts' average estimate of 88 cents. The realized gold price for the second quarter rose by 34% compared to a year ago, reaching $4,417 an ounce. Gold output was unchanged at 796,000 pounds. Barrick said that the higher gold costs were due to lower grades being processed at the Carlin and Cortez mines in Nevada, and the North Mara mine in Tanzania. Fuel costs and royalties also increased because of the higher realized gold price. Gold cost of sales increased 20% to $1.993 per ounce in the second quarter, while the all-in-sustaining cost of gold, which is a key industry measurement of total costs of producing gold including sustaining capital expenditure, increased 11% to $1.666 per ounce. NEWMONT -DEAL CLEARS IPO PATH Barrick has 61.5% of the Nevada Gold Mines joint enterprise and Newmont has 38.5%. Barrick needs Newmont's consent to proceed with its North American spin-off because Newmont holds the right of first refusal in case Barrick attempts to sell its stake. Newmont and Barrick also disagreed over the Nevada Gold Mines operational issues. Barrick agreed to transfer its Fourmile Project to the Nevada Gold Mines Joint Venture, and Newmont agreed that it would transfer its Mike and Fiberline Projects and pay $1.95 billion cash in 30 days. Barrick stated that the?agreement would create a gold complex of nearly 100 million ounces in Nevada. Barrick's planned North American IPO includes its interests and operatorship in Nevada Gold Mines, Pueblo Viejo and the Fourmile Project, as well as other North American exploration projects and assets, including those contributed by Newmont.
Oil steadies near one-week highs as US-Iran peace deal hopes dim
The oil prices remained steady?on Tuesday? at a level higher than a week ago?despite fading hopes of an agreement between the U.S.A. and Iran that would end their war and open the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump demanded damages for the U.S.
Brent crude futures remained flat at $87.81 per barrel at 0013 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude?futures stayed at $82.20 per barrel.
Both benchmarks rose by more than 5% Monday, reaching their highest level since July 31. Trump's response to Iran’s conditions for a deal was to demand that Iran pay compensation for those killed in wars and attacks, as well as protests. This is likely to complicate attempts to reopen Strait of Hormuz.
Later that day, he said the U.S. controlled the strait.
Tim Waterer is the chief market analyst for KCM Trade. He said that there appears to be an apparent gulf between Iran and the U.S. regarding what an agreement might actually look like.
Oil prices have a decidedly 'bought?tone.
Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco has postponed the restart of its 400,000-barrel-per-day Jazan refinery to August 30 after the Houthis claimed two attacks on the plant on ?Sunday.
The chokehold risks around the Strait of Hormuz as well as the Bab el-Mandeb remain very significant. Even intermittent restrictions and the threat of more incidents keeps insurance costs high and forces longer shipping routes. "Hence energy flows are likely to remain constrained in the near future," Waterer said.
Analysts at Barclays wrote a note dated 'Monday' stating that crude oil and refined products net exports via the Strait of Hormuz decreased to 3 mln barrels per day in the week ended August 7. This is down from the 4.4 mln bpd of the previous week.
Iraq also raised its official selling price for Basra medium crude in September by $2.50, to $4 less per barrel than the average Oman/Dubai quote. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Sonali Paul)
(source: Reuters)