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Oil prices drop as investors assess the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran strike
Oil prices fell on Thursday, as investors weighed the risk of a disruption in Middle East supplies due to renewed military strikes by the U.S. Brent 'crude futures dropped 43?cents or 0.45% to $95.2 a.barrel.at 0029 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures were also down 24 cents or 0.26% at $90.77. The war is now in its seventh full month, and the latest attacks are the most significant exchange of fire since July between the U.S. Brent and WTI fluctuated between gains of up to $2 per barrel and losses as low as $1 during the previous session. Both benchmarks reached their highest levels since July 24. Tony Sycamore, an IG analyst, said in a report that oil prices fell on signs that 'the latest flare-up is easing. There has been no confirmed exchange of gunfire since Wednesday afternoon, Sydney time. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, said that a renewed campaign against Iran?by the U.S. The renewed?U.S. campaign against Iran will not last "for too long", and U.S. forces have targeted Iran's missile and radar systems. "We removed all of the new offensive and defensive equipment they were trying to build along Strait of Hormuz. Trump said that it was a heavy attack on the Strait of Hormuz last night. "We're ready to do another one anytime we want," he added. Sycamore stated that "if this easing continues, which is a huge IF, it won't take long for oil to be moving out of the Strait via ship-to-ship transfer and dark-ship transits, returning to the levels seen at the end of last week." Kpler's preliminary shipping data showed that on Wednesday, four commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz. This is below the 10-day median of 13 vessels. Iran has also added more ships to its list of non-compliant vessels that are subject to confiscation, fines or detention should they attempt to "sail" through the Strait. The U.S. announced?on Monday that 17 million barrels of oil transited through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a record volume of crude since the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran began.
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RPT-Lynas Rare Earths claims it was in talks to takeover RPT-Lynas Rare Earths earlier this year
A spokesperson for Australia's Lynas Rare Earths said that the company was in takeover discussions earlier this year, but they 'did not' proceed. Three people said that the talks led Lynas, through Chairman John Humphrey, to suspend its search to find a new CEO for Amanda Lacaze, who retired from her position in June. Lynas plays a major role in developing a Western supply network for metals that are crucial to electric cars, wind turbines and defence systems. This is also an important draw for Australia, as it has committed to being a major supplier of minerals to its allies. Any acquisition by a foreign company requires?approval from the country's regulatory authorities. The spokesperson responded to a question regarding the company's involvement in takeover discussions by saying that the earlier discussions had a lot of uncertainty. Lynas held post-results discussion with investors in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane this week. Lacaze left the company on January 13th. Humphrey explained to investors why the CEO search took so long, said the investors, who spoke?on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the issue. Humphrey, according to one investor, told him that the CEO search was suspended for 4 1/2 months. How could they not disclose? Another investor agreed. "It is not a short time." Lynas didn't mention in its statement whether the CEO search was suspended. Because the search process had not been completed before Lacaze's retirement, Lynas appointed Pol Le Roux as interim CEO. It said that the CEO search is still ongoing. DIFFERENTIATE SUPPLY CHAINS Lynas had previously been in merger talks with a U.S. based company called?MP Materials. The talks ended in 2024 when the companies couldn't agree on valuation. It wasn't immediately clear which company had been involved in the discussions this year. According to Australian takeover laws, a listed company is not required to reveal that the CEO search was suspended. The company must disclose the suspension if it is "market sensitive." The news of the talks came as top-developed economies around the world scrambled to support the development and diversification of supply chains away from dominant supplier?China. Lacaze's footsteps are likely to be hard to fill. Over her 12-year tenure, she oversaw the 12-fold increase in the?share prices of the company as it grew to a $16-billion company. Lynas reported last week a significant increase in its annual profit. This was aided by record-high average selling prices of?rare earth oxide and strong demand. However, it fell short of?market expectations. The company also stated that it would expand its global supply chain. It is currently in discussions with mine suppliers from around the globe and will support the development of an American magnet supply chain.
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Stocks rise and US yields fall; the yen surges against the dollar
Investors waited for any new developments regarding the U.S. - Iran?conflict. The Japanese yen also rose against the U.S. Dollar. The yen's move was not immediately understood. Over the past month, the currency has'retraced about half of the gains that were made following a rare joint action by the U.S.?and?Japan?at the end?of July. The yen last rose 0.79% to 158.92 dollars. Treasury yields in the United States have fallen from their multi-year highs. The increase in borrowing costs across all major economies has heightened concerns over tighter monetary policies and worsening fiscal conditions. Investors continued to focus on Iran. Middle East fears of a new escalation were sparked after the U.S. exchanged its largest barrage since July. The flare-up could deepen the conflict, which has been raging since February when the U.S. began its strikes against Iran. Prices of oil rose by about 1% as a result of concerns about disruptions to the energy supply. Brent crude futures gained 98 cents or 1% to settle at $95.63 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures gained 79 cents or 0.9% to settle at $91.01. Wall Street stocks finished higher, in a partial recovery?from the recent fall. This was linked to the escalation of the Middle East conflict and the global bond saleoff. Rick Meckler of Cherry Lane Investments in New Vernon, New Jersey, a family-owned investment firm, says that "we're seeing some relief rally" in the stock market after underperformance due to higher yields. He said investors may be searching for bargains following the recent selling. "The (U.S. economy) remains strong. One of the challenges in investing in stocks is the tension between high rates and good earnings, as well as the competition bonds can offer. Most investors are still committed to stocks." The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 295.07 points or 0.56% to 53,061.95, while the S&P 500 rose 35.13 points or 0.46% to 7,666.60, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 118.05 or 0.45% to 26,217.83. MSCI's global index of stocks rose 0.14 points to 1,142.87, after having ended lower in the previous three sessions. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell by 0.24%. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 0.2 basis points to 4.794%, and was on course to end its longest daily gain since March. The yield reached a previous high of 4,818%, which was its highest level since November 1, 2023. The yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds remained above 3% for a second consecutive session, after reaching a three-decades high earlier in the week. Recent traders have increased their bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. According to CME's FedWatch, traders now give a two-thirds chance of the Fed delivering a 25 basis-point rate hike this month. This is up from 37% last week. Investors are looking forward to the Fed meeting on September 15-16 to see if the economy is strong enough to justify tightening monetary policy. The important monthly U.S. job report is due this Friday. The ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday showed that private employment in the U.S. increased by 38,000 jobs, which is below the 48,000 expected by the economists polled. Thomas Urano is co-chief investment officers at Sage Advisory, a firm in Austin, Texas. Markets will also be watching closely to see how much the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan are willing to tighten their policies in response to the persistent inflation risk. Hawkish? BOJ board member Hajime Takata said that the central banks should act quickly to combat increasing inflationary pressures rather than follow a semiannual rate increase schedule as expected by the markets. Spot gold increased 1.33% on the metals markets to $4,386.29 per ounce.
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FOREX-Yen surges sharply; dollar falls from two-week-high
The Japanese yen rose sharply on Wednesday against the U.S. Dollar after retracing approximately half of the gains made at the end July following a rare, joint intervention between the U.S. The motive for the intervention was not immediately apparent. The yen had fallen to a 40-year-low of 163.98 per dollar prior to the intervention. It rose as high as 155.21, before giving up some of its gains. The yen last rose 0.79% to 158.92 dollars. Chris Scicluna is the head of Daiwa Capital Markets Europe's economic research. He said: "It would be convenient for the U.S. to conduct a rate review, following the Bank of Japan remarks this morning." Hajime Takata, a hawkish member of the BOJ Board, said that on Wednesday, the central bank needed to act quickly to combat rising inflationary pressures rather than follow a semiannual rate increase schedule. Scicluna stated that it was difficult to determine what caused the dollar/yen to move. "I suspect this is likely to be more of a rate-check than an intervention to try to shift the trend, as the recent interventions did not achieve that." A rate check is when a central bank or government asks financial institutions for an exchange rate, but doesn't buy or sell. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also indicated on Tuesday that a hike is likely to occur this month. Treasury Department reported that U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent expressed a strong support for "decisive monetary measures" to combat the yen's weakness during a meeting between Ueda and Bessent. Analysts say that although some factors suggest the possibility of an intervention on Wednesday, the size of this move was relatively small. "If it is an intervention, then they tend to occur when the markets are thin. Right?" This week would be a thin one, so it's possible to check that box," said Hank Calenti. Takafumi Oonodera, First Vice President at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation, stated that the yen gains are below what one might expect from an official action. Onodera stated that the magnitude of this move did not indicate direct market intervention. The wide difference between U.S. interest rates and Japanese rates has caused the yen to struggle to find support. On Wednesday, it traded back down to 160.39, its lowest level since the intervention. The drift above 160 indicates that the markets do not really see any fundamental support for the yen right now, said Eric Theoret. Currency strategist at Scotiabank. OIL RAISES INFLATION FEAR The dollar had been boosted earlier in the day by a spike in oil and a rise of?benchmark 10-year Treasury Yields to three-year highs. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) fell by 0.09%, to 99.59. Meanwhile, the euro was down by 0.06%, at $1.1585. The dollar fell 0.23%, to $1.3484. Brent crude prices increased 1% during a volatile session. This was due to renewed military strikes by the U.S. against Iran, which have limited world oil supplies. Theoret said that the markets are clearly worried by recent developments between Iran and the U.S. Iranians and Arab neighbours fear a return to war after the largest exchange of fire between Tehran, Washington and the southern coast of Iran. U.S. forces struck the Iranian coastline and Iran fired at American bases throughout the region. There is growing concern that rising oil prices may lead to higher consumer price inflation, which is already above target. This could increase the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rates being raised. Kevin Warsh, the Fed chairman's hawkish remarks on Friday, prompted traders to increase their bets that the U.S. Central Bank will raise rates at its meeting September 15-16. Fed funds futures traders now price in a 63% chance of a hike for September, up from just 35% prior to Warsh's remarks. The Canadian dollar rose after the Bank of Canada held its key policy rate at 2.25% as expected on Wednesday. However, the bank warned that inflation risks had increased, and the growth prospects were more uncertain due to new U.S. Tariffs. The Canadian dollar was up by 0.42% last at C$1.384. The New Zealand dollar fell after the central bank of the country raised interest rates on Wednesday for the second time in a row and indicated that more tightening would follow. However, it stressed that any future moves will be measured because the bank warned about mounting risks to economic outlook. The Kiwi fell 0.78%, to $0.5845.
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US yields drop from their highs following data as crude oil prices are eyed
U.S. Treasury Yields fell from a?multi-year peak on Wednesday. The benchmark 10-year yield is on track to end a five session streak of gains as investors assessed the 'latest round of data on the economy and crude prices fluctuated. Crude prices rose more than 1% after a?earlier 1% drop. Supply concerns from the Iran War overshadowed comments made by U.S. Energy Sec. Chris Wright who stated that 17 million barrels of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz Monday. The ADP National Employment Report shows that private employment increased by 38,000 last month. This is below the 48,000 expected by the economists polled, following a revised upwards of 46,000 jobs in July. Thomas Urano is the co-chief investment officer of Sage Advisory, based in Austin, Texas. "Policy is becoming very difficult. Then you see data such as today's ADP number which showed a slow growth rate. All of a sudden, inflation and unemployment are not reading the same script. Then monetary policy becomes'really complex' when both stop pointing the same way. Urano stated that in addition to September being historically a difficult month, recent comments by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, the continuation of the 'Iran war, which has increased energy prices, as well as capital spending by AI firms potentially crowding out the demand for Treasuries, have all served to push the yields higher. This data was released on Tuesday, after the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey revealed a slow-moving but stable job market. The government's payroll report will be released on Friday, and will provide a better understanding of how the Federal Reserve will set its interest rate policy. BENCHMARK YIELDS RECOVER FROM HIGHS The yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasury bill fell 0.2 basis points to 4.794%, and is on course to end its longest daily gain since March. The yield reached a previous high of 4,818%, which was its highest level since November 1, 2023. The Commerce Department also reported that factory orders increased 0.9% in July. This was above the 0.6% estimated, after a 0.2% decline in June. The 30-year bond yield remained unchanged at 5,267%, after reaching a high of 5,296% two weeks ago. John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said that rising long-term bonds yields were not driven by inflation fears but rather a reflection of an economy in good health. He also stated that he is still gathering information for his next "monetary policy decision". FED OFFICIALS SIGNATURE?RATE HACK OPENNESS In recent days, several Fed officials indicated that they thought a rate increase would be appropriate if inflation pressures continued. The part of the U.S. Treasury curve that is closely monitored, measuring the difference between the yields on 2-year and 10-year Treasury Notes, which is seen as a good indicator of economic expectations was positive at 40.9 basis points. CME FedWatch reports that 64.2% of respondents expect the central bank to raise interest rates by at least 25 basis point at its meeting in September. This is up from 36.6% one week ago. After climbing to its highest level since January 2025, the 2-year U.S. Treasury Yield, which is typically influenced by?interest rates expectations for Fed, dropped 1 to 4,384%. In its latest "Beige Book", the Fed stated that U.S. economic growth was modest, with employment rising slightly and prices increasing moderately over recent weeks. The 5-year U.S. Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) broke even at 2.366%, after closing on Tuesday at 2.38%. This was its highest close since the middle of June. The 10-year TIPS Breakeven Rate was at 2,352% last, which means the market expects inflation to average 2.4% per year over the next ten years.
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Stocks rise after recent declines; Japanese yen jumps against US dollar
Investors awaited new developments in the U.S. - Iran conflict and the Japanese yen rose sharply against U.S. dollars. The yen's move was not immediately apparent. Over the past month, the currency has retraced approximately half of its gains made following a rare joint action by the U.S. On Wednesday, the yen rose by 0.92% to 158.72 dollars. Treasury yields in the United States have fallen from their multi-year highs. The increase in borrowing costs in major economies has heightened concerns over tighter monetary policies and worsening fiscal conditions. Investors remain focused on Iran a day after U.S. airstrikes on Iran prompted Iranian attacks against U.S. target?in the area, the most serious escalation of the conflict in weeks. Fears of further disruptions to energy supply led to a modest increase in oil prices. ?U.S. Crude was up by 0.62% to $90.79 per barrel. Wall Street stocks rose on September 1st after a rough start to the month due to the Middle East escalation and global bond sell-off. Rick Meckler is a partner at Cherry Lane Investments, a family-owned investment firm in New Vernon, New Jersey. He said investors may be searching for bargains following the recent selling. "The (U.S. economy) is still strong. One of the challenges?in stock investing is that high rates are often associated with a strong economy. You have to balance the good earnings against the possibility for competition that bonds offer. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 289.55 points or 0.55% to 53,059.62. The S&P 500 gained 45.54 points or 0.60% to 7,677.30. And the Nasdaq Composite increased by 130.03 points or 0.50% to 26,230.25. After ending lower in the previous three sessions, MSCI's global stock index rose by 1.14 points or 0.10% to 1,143.91. The STOXX 600 Index fell by 0.21%. The yield on benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year notes fell 0.2 basis points to 4.794%, and was on course to end its longest daily gain streak since March. The yield hit a previous high of 4,818%, its highest level since November 1, 2023. The yield on the Japanese 10-year government bond held above 3% for the second straight session, after reaching a three-decades high earlier in this week. Recent traders have increased their bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Investors are looking forward to the Fed's meeting on September 15-16 to see if the economy is still strong enough to justify tightening monetary policy. The key monthly U.S. job report is due Friday. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders now give a two-in three chance that the Fed would increase rates by 25 basis points this month. This is up from 37% just a week ago. Markets will be watching closely the policy meetings of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan to see how much they are willing to tighten their policies in response to the persistent inflation risk. Spot gold increased 0.9% to $4.367.68 per ounce.
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FOREX - Yen surges sharply; dollar falls from two-week-high
The yen jumped sharply on Wednesday against the dollar after retracing approximately half of its gains made at the end July following a rare U.S.-Japan joint intervention. The?move was not immediately understood. After the intervention, the yen rose as high as 155.21 per dollar, before giving up some of its gains. The yen last rose 0.94% to 158.67 dollars. Chris Scicluna is the head of Daiwa Capital Markets Europe's economic research. He said: "It would be convenient for the U.S. to conduct a rate review, following the Bank of Japan remarks this morning." Hajime Takata, a hawkish member of the BOJ Board, said that on Wednesday the central bank needed to act quickly to combat rising inflationary pressures and not follow a semi-annual rate increase schedule. Scicluna stated that it was difficult to determine the cause of the dollar/yen movement, but he suspected this to be more likely a rate-check than an intervention to change the trend. The recent intervention failed to?do so. A government or central banks asks financial institutions for a quote on the exchange rate, but they do not buy or sell. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also indicated on Tuesday that there was a high chance of a hike in this month. Treasury Department reported that U.S. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent expressed strong support for a "decisive" approach to combating yen weakening in a recent meeting with Ueda. Analysts say that although some factors suggest the possibility of an intervention on Wednesday, the size of this move was relatively small. "If there is an intervention, it tends to happen when the markets are thin." Hank Calenti is the chief strategist for global markets at SMBC EMEA. Takafumi Oonodera, First vice president at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation, stated that the yen has not gained as much as one might expect from a move by the government. He said that the magnitude of his move did not indicate direct market intervention. The wide difference between U.S. interest rates and Japanese rates has caused the yen to struggle to find support. On Wednesday, it traded back down to 160.39, its lowest level since the intervention. The drift above 160 indicates that the markets do not really see a foundation for the yen, said Eric Theoret. Currency strategist at Scotiabank. OIL RAISES INFLATION FEAR The dollar had been boosted earlier in the day by a spike in oil and a rise of benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which reached a three-year peak. The dollar index fell 0.16%, to 99.52. The euro remained flat at $1.1591 on the same day. The dollar fell 0.11%, to $1.35. The oil price has fallen from the highs of earlier this week, which were more than a month old. Traders are weighing the risk of disruptions in supply after the overnight strikes between the U.S. There is growing concern that rising oil prices will feed through into consumer price inflation, which is already above target and increase the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rates being raised. Kevin Warsh, Fed chairman, made a series of hawkish remarks on Friday that prompted traders to increase their bets?on an interest rate hike at the September 15-16 U.S. Central Bank meeting. Fed funds futures traders now price in 65% of a hike for September, up from just 35% prior to Warsh's remarks. The Canadian dollar rose after the Bank of Canada held its key policy rate at 2.25% as widely expected on Wednesday. However, the Bank of Canada said that inflation risks had increased and new U.S. Tariffs made growth prospects more uncertain. The Canadian dollar was up by 0.39% last at C$1.384. The New Zealand dollar fell after the central bank of the country raised interest rates on Wednesday for the second time in a row and indicated that more tightening would follow. However, it stressed that any future moves will be measured because the bank warned about mounting risks to economic outlook. The Kiwi fell 0.71%, to $0.5849.
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Russia announces no further obstacles to payments with India
A senior Russian banker revealed on Wednesday that India, the world's second largest importer of Russian oil, has built a functional payments infrastructure using roubles. India increased its imports of Russian oil at a discount due to Western sanctions, resulting in a record-breaking $70 billion trade between Russia and India in 2024. The bilateral trade dropped in 2025 when the sanctions were tightened, but recovered in the first half 2026. "There are no problems in the settlements between Russia & India." Ivan Nosov is the head of Sberbank India. He said, "I am prepared to say that this is a reliable and well-established mechanism for Russia's payments to other countries." Russian companies had complained before about the "overhang" rupees (a currency that is only partially convertible) in bilateral transactions as well as trade deficits. Indian exports were lagging behind Russian imports. Official data shows that 17 Indian banks and 22 Russian banks currently service bilateral trade. This includes Sberbank, Russia’s largest lender which was tasked with developing the payments infrastructure. Nosov stated that 90% of all transactions between Russia and India are processed in 10 minutes. More than 50% of the transactions are processed in less than a minute. When he met with President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi celebrated the growing economic ties between India and Russia.
Gold falls on profit-taking following inflation data
Investors locked in gains on Thursday as gold prices fell by more than 1%. This was after the U.S. inflation figures were in line with expectations. This dampened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase next month.
By 12:58 am EDT (1658 GMT), spot gold had fallen 1.2%, to $4.354.58 an ounce. The session began with prices at $4,449.39, their highest since June 5.
U.S. gold futures fell 1.1% and settled at $4,420.40.
"4,500 is an important resistance level for gold." Bob Haberkorn is a senior market strategist for StoneX. He said that we 'touched' it twice, and gold fell from there.
The U.S. Producer Price Index remained unchanged in July, as a decline in goods prices offset an increase in service costs. This indicates that inflationary pressures may persist.
The data follows Wednesday's Consumer Price Report, which showed that U.S. inflation increased 3.4% over the 12-month period ending in July, down from 3.5% during June, and in line economists' expectations.
According to CME FedWatch?Tool, the markets now price a 35% probability of a rate increase at the September meeting. This is down from 40% after the PPI results.
Fed policymakers will not feel any urgency to increase rates next month, after the inflation rate has cooled down for a second month in a row.
Beth Hammack, the president of Cleveland's Federal Reserve, reiterated on Wednesday that rates must be raised "right away".
Low interest rates can reduce the 'opportunity cost' of holding non-yielding gold.
Independent analyst Tai Wong stated that "(Gold's) price rose by a solid 9% in one week, behind Chinese and Retail buying. We are seeing some profit taking?around the 100-day moving average."
Oil prices fell on Thursday, as investors reassessed the prospects of a weaker global economy this year due to supply disruptions.
A SEC filing revealed that Bank of Korea held a $250-million stake in a U.S. listed?gold ETF at the end of June.
(Reporting by Sukanya Mitra and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber and Diti Pujara) (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra and Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber and Diti Pujara)
(source: Reuters)