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Oil prices steady as global stocks rise

As markets waited for Wednesday's key U.S. Inflation data, global equities edged higher on Monday. Oil prices remained largely?steady as Iran announced it was close to a final agreement with Oman that would define new shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. The Stoxx 600 index for Europe rose by 0.1%, while the S&P 500 futures in the U.S. climbed by 0.2%, and the Nasdaq tech-focused index gained 0.4%. Iran announced on Sunday that it was nearing the final stages of a deal to allow Oman transit through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the country reiterated that this waterway will only be reopened once the United States meets other conditions. Brent crude was little changed at $83.50 per barrel, as shipping through strait continued to be a trickle. However, it still remained below the peak price of $126 a barrel in late April. Asian shares rose over night, following Wall Street stocks which reached a record high Friday, after a weaker than expected U.S. job report caused traders cut their bets on Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Japan's Nikkei gained 2.1% while South Korea gained 0.7%. The MSCI index, which measures global stock prices, rose 0.1% overall on Monday. Mohit Kumar is a senior European analyst at Jefferies. He said, "We remain confident that the Fed will not hike rates this year." The key would be the inflation report this week." The economists polled by? The U.S. consumer price index for July is expected to rise 3.4% on an annual basis in the data released on Wednesday. This compares to a 3.5% increase the previous month. The Core CPI (which excludes volatile energy and food prices) is expected to rise 2.5% from 2.6% last month. If oil prices are contained and continue to fall, the Fed will not need to raise rates. Kumar explained. The Fed futures traders have reduced their bets for a rate increase and now expect a 45% chance that it will happen in September, down from 67% one week ago. Earnings have helped to boost stock markets in recent weeks. Strong corporate earnings are a major factor. Analysts from BofA stated that earnings per share had increased 30% over the past year, even after Alphabet's and Amazon's investment gains were excluded. A 76% EPS beating rate is the highest since 2021. JPMorgan strategists revised their 2026 EPS estimates to $365. This represents a 35% annual increase. They also raised their S&P500 price target from 7,800 to 8,000. It is currently 7,758.

This week's earnings are lighter, but still include semiconductor maker Applied Materials and networking equipment maker Cisco as well as cloud infrastructure technology provider CoreWeave. The yields on 10-year Treasuries dropped 1 basis point, to 4.643%. This week the market is expecting $125 billion of new issuance. The currency markets were largely?steady. The euro was just off its seven-week high at $1.156. The dollar gained 0.4% versus the yen, reaching 158.48. Investors were wary about any intervention. A summary of the opinions expressed at the Bank of Japan's July meeting revealed that policymakers were concerned about rising inflation, which could lead to a quicker-than-expected rate of interest rate hikes. This strengthened the case for an increase in September.

(source: Reuters)