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Tokyo Steel maintains product prices in September
Tokyo Steel Manufacturing, Japan's largest electric-arc furnace producer, said it would leave the prices of its steel products unchanged in September. This will help to bring the market back up after a period when demand was weak. This is the fourth month in a row that steel products have not seen a change in price, including its H-shaped beams. Prices for steel bars and rebar will remain unchanged at 85,000 yen (US$577) per metric ton in September. H-shaped beams, however, will be priced at 112,000 ($760) per ton. The company reported that domestically, steel activity in construction remains low due to a persistent shortage of labour and limited working hours. Meanwhile, steel shipments remain slow for the manufacturing sector as the market evaluates the impact U.S. Tariffs. Although U.S. trade negotiations with other countries are moving forward, the steel industry remains cautious because no agreement has been reached with China. In a recent statement, the company stated that political instability, regional conflict, and protectionist policies are all contributing to the uncertainty on the steel market. Tokyo Steel's pricing has been closely monitored by Asian competitors such as South Korea’s Posco, Hyundai Steel and China’s Baoshan Iron & Steel Co Ltd.
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Copper prices are affected by a stronger dollar ahead of geopolitical events
The copper price fell on Monday, due to the stronger dollar. There was also uncertainty about a key event that will affect U.S. interest rate forecasts and a meeting of U.S. president Donald Trump with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy. By 1002 GMT, the price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange had fallen by 0.3% to $9.742.50 per metric ton. EwaManthey, commodities analyst at ING, said: "The week began with a cautious note for base metals. The markets are awaiting the Trump-Zelenskiy meetings as well as any interest rates signals from the Fed Jackson Hole Meetings." Trump will meet Zelenskiy Monday after meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin Friday. Trump's team said on Sunday that both sides had to make compromises, as Trump wants Ukraine to accept an agreement to end Europe's bloodiest war in 80-years. As Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium this week, metals priced in dollars are more expensive. The metals markets are still digesting the data released last week by China, the world's largest consumer of metals. This showed that China's factory output fell to a record low in July. "After stronger-than-expected growth in China earlier this year, demand is now slowing, as front-loading ahead of tariffs has now come to an end," Manthey said. LME tin increased 0.4%, to $33,785 per metric ton. Low tin stocks in LME registered warehouses are supporting the metal. The two-year low is 1,655 tonnes, a drop of 65% this year. The spread between the LME cash price and the three-month contract for tin The price of a barrel of oil on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose to $63 Friday, up from $48 last week. This indicates that there is a shortage of nearby supplies. LME aluminium dropped 0.7% to 2,589.50 per metric ton. Zinc fell 0.6% to 2,777, lead dropped 0.5% to 1,970.50 and nickel declined 0.4% to 15,100. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton; Additional reporting by Amy Lv)
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South Africa's artisanal mining community wants a stake in the critical minerals boom
The artisanal coal miners demand formalisation The informal mining sector wants a share of the critical mineral boom The new bill seeks to legalise the work of these people By Kim Harrisberg Mooi Masuku is one of them. He has been an artisanal miner for 17 years. He says a bill to legalise the informal mining industry is crucial to creating and protecting jobs, especially as green technologies are aiming to use critical minerals. "In South Africa I think that the government will start to understand why (artisanal mining), to protect these jobs, should be legalised," said Masuku as he sat on a slab of concrete outside his house in the Nomzamo settlement, in the township of Ermelo. He said, "We want work and we want it legally." The last week of the month, public comments on the Mineral Resource Development Bill were closed. It will now be reviewed by parliament before becoming law. South Africa has a lot of coal reserves. However, as the country shifts away from coal-based industries that are harmful to the planet and towards renewables, both formal and unofficial miners fear massive unemployment. Mining experts, however, say that the industry will not disappear overnight. According to the Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy of the United States, coal used for steel production is a critical mineral. This is similar to the position taken by Chris Wright, U.S. Secretary Energy, in May. This is in stark contrast to the majority of other countries, who view coal as a fossil fuel from which the world has agreed to "transition" away at U.N. Climate Talks COP28 in Dubai in 2023. South Africa has a wealth of other minerals, more commonly referred to as "critical", like manganese and copper. These are needed for the green energy infrastructure such as solar panels and windmills. According to the National Association of Artisanal Miners, of which Masuku belongs, small-scale and artisanal miners are eligible for this type of extraction. Zethu Hlatshwayo, NAAM spokesperson, said: "The critical mineral growth should benefit artisanal miners... we wish to mine all minerals under our feet." Fill the Employment Vacancy Hlatshwayo said that upskilling artisanal miner for critical mineral mining would fill the employment gap left by the phase-out of coal. According to the book Regional Policy of the Southern African Development Community, there are approximately 20,000 artisanal miner in South Africa. Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy states that the figures are not accurate and may be considered an underestimate, as there hasn't been a proper baseline study. Government data revealed that the coal industry is responsible for about 400,000 jobs, ranging from informal and formal miners to street vendors who sell food to them. According to the Regional Policies in the Southern African Development Community, unregulated artisanal mining is associated with criminality, such as soil erosion, and environmental damage, including mineral smuggling. Global Witness, a human rights organization, says that the abuses should be removed from the supply chain and not by the artisanal miner. Masuku said that creating safe jobs was crucial in a nation with a 33% unemployment rate, according to data from the government. NAAM also advocates for the local processing of minerals in South Africa, rather than exporting raw materials. This will bring more financial benefits to South Africans. Bill Pros and Cons The Mineral Resources Development Bill (MRD) proposes a formal regulation of artisanal and small scale miners. This includes the issuance of permits and creation designated artisanal mine zones. Kangwa Chisanga Jr. is an advocate at the National Institute of Public Administration in Zambia. He teaches legal studies and advocates that formalisation can boost job creation and improve miner safety. He said that artisanal mining could be a future industry for critical minerals. Chisanga Jr. said that this bill would be a good option if there was a common goal between government and mining companies to promote environmentally sustainable mining. There is also criticism of the bill. Chisanga Jr. said that the requirements for legalisation could be over-regulated, and scare away investors, as well as increase illegal mining. NAAM stated that the bill is still too vague and limits artisanal miner to surface mining. It also risks putting costs of rehabilitation, such as sealing off mine shafts and planting vegetation, on artisanal miner. "We're concerned that the application process for permits will be long and expensive," said Bonginkosi Buthulezi. He is an artisanal miner in Ermelo, and a member of NAAM. AgriSA, a national agricultural organization, has also reacted against the bill, stating that a rise in artisanal mines poses a threat to water quality, agriculture and food security. The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy has not responded to any requests for comments. While NAAM awaits the outcome of its feedback regarding the bill, it will continue to campaign to have mining companies seen as allies, not enemies, by the government.
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India proposes three-year import tariffs on certain steel products
India has proposed a tariff of 11-12 percent on certain steel products for a period of three years to reduce shipments by China, the world's largest producer. If a levy is imposed, it will begin at 12%. The levy will then be reduced to 11.5% the second year, and 11% the third. This was announced by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies in a 16th August notification. The notification stated that "the Authority concludes there has been a recent, abrupt, sharp, and significant increase in imported steel," adding that it could result in serious harm to the domestic sector. The DGTR said that because of the 50% tariffs on imports to the U.S. and similar measures taken by other countries, the bulk of the steel volume is held by manufacturers around the world. "Therefore the safeguard duty should address not only the serious injury sustained by the domestic industry...but the threat of future serious injury." After preliminary findings, the Indian government will make a final recommendation. April is a month of celebrations. A temporary tariff of 12% was imposed for 200 days On Monday, Japanese steel industry lobby groups requested that measures be taken to protect their domestic industry from unfair imports. The U.S. President Donald Trump’s import tariffs for steel have sparked a wave in trade frictions with China, as countries such as South Korea and Vietnam have imposed anti-dumping levies.
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Focus on Trump-Zelenskiy Meeting and Gold Gains
The gold price rose on Monday as a result of lower U.S. Treasury rates, and market participants waited for the outcome. Donald Trump, President of the United States Meeting Later in the day, we will be meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European Leaders. As of Monday morning, 0840 GMT, spot gold rose 0.4% to $3348.28 an ounce after reaching its lowest level since 1 August. U.S. Gold Futures for December Delivery rose by 0.3% to $3393.40. The firm tone in gold prices returned today, with the market nipping the $3350 level. "The combination of soft yields (and) a weaker Dollar would create a tailwind to gold," said Ross Norman, an independent analyst. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Yields dropped from over two-week highs. Zelenskiy will be joined by European leaders on the geopolitical stage. Talks with Trump Later on Monday, we will discuss the best way to go about negotiating a deal to end this dispute. Between Russia and Ukraine Sources briefed about Moscow's thinking say that under the peace proposals discussed at Friday's Alaska summit between Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, and Donald Trump, Kyiv will cede large swathes in its east which Moscow is unable to capture. "Front-running geopolitical headlines would be unwise at this time, given that any outcome is possible. Norman said that if there was any sense of easing tensions in Ukraine, we could expect a modest drop in gold prices. Investors will also be watching the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium for clues about Fed's interest rates path. The Fed is expected to announce its first rate cut of the year in September. A second cut could be announced by year's end. In a low interest rate environment, non-yielding gold bullion is a good investment. It's a safe haven during times of geopolitical or economic uncertainty. Other than that, silver spot was up by 0.2% to $38.08 an ounce. Platinum was unchanged at $1335.06 per ounce and palladium rose 0.6% to $1118.92. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; editing by Mark Heinrich)
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Thungela expects thermal coal production to be curtailed across the industry due to lower prices
South African coal miner Thungela CEO July Ndlovu, who is leaving his position on Monday, said that global thermal coal producers will reduce output due to low prices of the fossil fuel and an uncertain economic outlook. South Africa's largest thermal coal exporter has reported a 80% drop in profit, to 248 million Rand ($14 million), in the six-month period ending June 30. This is primarily due to lower fuel prices. Thungela stated that geopolitical tensions, rising tariffs and economic growth were all impacted by the disruption of global supply chains. Ndlovu or the company did not elaborate. Thermal coal prices are also under pressure due to a global switch from polluting fuels to cleaner sources of energy, and increased production in the top import markets China & India. Ndlovu stated that the low prices could lead to further production cuts after major producers from Indonesia and Colombia reduced production, while Australia's production suffered due to accidents and bad weather. Ndlovu stated that "further production cuts are likely to help rebalance supply and demand on the seaborne markets." "I expect that supply discipline will continue." The miner stated that the average thermal coal export price in South Africa and Australia fell by 11% and 9%, respectively, during the first half 2025. Thungela expects to produce between 12.8 and 13.6 million tons of thermal coal in South Africa and between 3.7 and 4.1 millions tons at its Ensham Mine in Australia this year.
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European stocks and US dollar fall as traders focus on Ukraine talks
The U.S. Dollar and European shares both shook on Monday, ahead of a week that is expected to be eventful for U.S. rate policy. Oil prices also remained subdued because the risks associated with Russian supply seemed to have diminished. Early trading saw little change in the pan-European STOXX 600 Index after it reached its highest level since last March on Friday. The MSCI All Country World Index was hovering near the record high set last week. In the early Asian session, an optimistic mood led to record highs for indices in Japan, Taiwan, and China. A gauge of Chinese stocks also reached its highest level since a decade. Investors are preparing for U.S. president Donald Trump to meet with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and European leaders on Monday evening to discuss next steps in ending the war in Ukraine. This follows Trump's Friday summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump, despite the fact that there was no agreement at the summit, appeared to be more in line with Moscow regarding a peace deal for Ukraine rather than a first ceasefire. The main economic event this week is the Jackson Hole Symposium, which will take place between August 21 and 23, at the Kansas City Federal Reserve. Chair Jerome Powell will speak about the economy outlook and central bank policy. The markets are pricing in a chance of around 85% for a rate cut by a quarter point at the Fed meeting on September 17. They also price in a further easing before December. Mark Matthews is the head of Asia research at Bank Julius Baer, Singapore. He said that he saw three rate cuts this year in the U.S., a slower GDP but no recession. The combination of these two factors should allow the rally continue. Stock markets have been buoyed by the prospect of lower borrowing rates globally. Japan's Nikkei has reached a new record high. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan gained 0.3% after reaching a record high of four years last week. Commerzbank's 3.7% drop dragged down the DAX in Europe. The FTSE in Britain was flat. Solid Earnings S&P futures slipped 0.1%, while Nasdaq was flat. Both were at all-time highs. The valuations have been supported by a strong earnings season, as S&P 500 EPS grew 11 % on the year. 58% of companies also raised their guidance for the full-year. Goldman Sachs analysts said that the results of mega-cap technology companies have been exceptional. While Nvidia is yet to release its earnings, Magnificent Seven grew their EPS in 2Q by 26% compared to the same period last year, which was a 12% improvement over expectations going into earnings season. Home Depot, Target Lowe's, Walmart and Lowe's all report this week. The possibility of Fed easing keeps short-term Treasury rates down, while the longer end of the curve is under pressure from the threat of stagflation, and huge budget deficits. This has led to the steepest yield curvature since 2021. The prospect of higher borrowing for increased defence spending has also pushed German long-term rates to record highs. The dollar has been impacted by bets that the Fed will ease further. It dropped 0.4% last week against a basket currency to end at 97.858. The dollar remained flat against the yen, at 147.24. Meanwhile, the euro stayed at $1.17 despite adding 0.5% to its value last week. The dollar is doing better than its New Zealand counterpart, as it's widely expected that the central bank will cut rates on Wednesday to 3.0%. Gold, the most important commodity, rose 0.5%, to $3,343 per ounce, after falling 1.9% in the previous week. The oil prices fell as Trump backed down from his threats to impose more restrictions on Russian exports. However, White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro stated that India's purchases were funding Russia's conflict in Ukraine. Brent was unchanged at $65.81 per barrel while U.S. crude remained steady at $62.81 a barrel.
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Aluminum tariffs are reduced as the US adds derivative products to its 50% list
Aluminum prices in Shanghai, London and other major cities fell on Monday as the United States imported more derivatives of the metal under the 50% import tax, which distorted the outlook for demand. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded aluminium contract closed the daytime trading 0.68% lower, at 20,600 Yuan ($2,869) a metric ton. In the early part of the session, the contract reached 20,550 yuan. This was its lowest level since 6 August. The benchmark three-month aluminum on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.65%, to $2,590 per ton, as of 8am GMT, after reaching its lowest level since August 12. The Trump administration expanded the scope of its tariffs of 50% on imports of steel and aluminum on Friday by adding hundreds more derivative products to their list of goods that are subject to levies. On August 18, the levies will be implemented on all goods included on the expanded list. A Singapore-based aluminium dealer said that "Sentiment soured" after Trump's new Tariff plans. The trader, who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak with media, said that the rising inventory pressured prices. The increased supply of aluminium in China, which rose by 0.6% to 3,78 million tons from a year ago, also pushed up the price. Customs data shows that China's imports in July of unwrought aluminum and its products grew 38.2% compared to the previous year. SHFE Zinc fell by 0.8%, Lead shed 0.3%. Copper slipped 0.01%. Nickel slid by 0.29%. Tin gained 0.17%. The LME's other base metals have also declined. Lead fell 0.53%. Nickel dropped 0.47%. Tin lost 0.13%. Zinc shed 0.45%.
Morning bid Europe- Geopolitics takes center stage before Fed.
Wayne Cole gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
When the idea that Putin sent a body double to Alaska sounds plausible, you know we're living in crazy times. It's clear that President Trump is now tweeting Kremlin talking-points about Crimea and Zelenskiy.
Putin seems to believe that Ukraine must give up the land that Russia has taken and that it has not been able to gain in three years of war. Zelenskiy, European leaders and others have repeatedly denied this. They will also be at his side when he meets Trump in Washington later today.
The markets have judged that the threat of additional U.S. tariffs or sanctions on Russian oil exports has diminished. Oil prices have fallen modestly, with Brent down 0.3%.
The share markets have been mostly stronger as Japan and Taiwan continue to make records and Chinese blue-chips reach a new 10-month high.
European stock futures and Wall St. futures have both gained 0.2%. Goldman's report on S&P 500 earnings shows that the EPS has grown 11% year-on-year and 58% have raised their guidance for the full year.
Home Depot, Target Lowe's, Walmart and Lowe's all report this week.
The main event for monetary policy will be the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Jamboree, where Chair Powell will speak on the economy outlook and the Fed’s policy framework. There doesn't appear to be a question-and-answer session yet.
Panel discussions will feature ECB President Christine Lagarde, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.
Futures prices are about 85% for a Fed rate reduction in September, so anything other than dovish comments from Powell will be a blow to the debt markets.
The yield curve is steepening as long-term investors worry about inflation, the budget deficit, and the politicisation monetary policy.
The yields on European bonds have also been rising, possibly due to the fact that governments have realised how much they will have to borrow in order to cover their increased defense spending.
Market developments on Monday that may have a significant impact
- EU Trade figures for June, US NAHB Housing survey
(source: Reuters)