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Gabon introduces new housing tax to tackle debt
Gabon plans to introduce a housing tax next January in order to finance the needs of this oil-producing nation, as its debt continues to grow. The country is facing an acute liquidity squeeze that has made it more dependent on regional capital markets. Marie-Noelle Ada Meyo, a special adviser to the Gabon Presidency's social media, said that authorities are working on an annual tax which will be paid by the owner or tenant of a dwelling. Ada Meyo, Gabon's Treasury Minister, said that the funds will be used to improve street lighting, road maintenance, and city cleanliness. The amount of the contribution will vary depending on where you live, between $1,000 ($1.80), and 30,000 CFA Francs ($53.88), per month. She added that the exemptions will apply to households in need, schools, and places of worship. According to the World Bank, more than a third (33%) of Gabon’s population is living in poverty. In rural areas, access to basic services like water and electricity is still difficult. The outstanding public debt of Gabon increased to '8.6 trillion CFA Francs' ($15.45billion) by the end October, from '7.1 trillion' for the same time period last year. The total?amount includes 4.2 trillion CFA Francs in external debt and 4 trillion CFA Francs in domestic debt, including 3.2 billion issued on the regional market. At the end of October, arrears totaled 443.6 billion CFA Francs. $1 = 556.7500 CFA Francs (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith; Anait Miridzhanian)
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China aluminium imports decline 14% y/y, custom data shows
Customs data released on Thursday showed that China's imports of?unwrought aluminium? and?aluminium? products dropped 14% from a year earlier in November. According to the General Administration of Customs, China was the world's largest metals consumer in November. Traders said that the decline in imports, which ended five months of growth in volume, was a sign of softer demand for metals used in construction, transportation and packaging. The traders also added that arbitrage incentives remained muted and import appetite was weak. In the first 11 months 2025, China imported 3,60 million tons unwrought aluminum and aluminium-based products. This is an increase of 4.4% over the same period last year. The data includes primary metals and alloyed aluminum that has not been wrought. Imports of Bauxite (a key raw material for aluminium) increased by 22.9% in November compared to the previous year, to '15.11 millions tons. This brings the total year-to date imports up to '185.96million tons, a?29.4% increase year-on-year. According to Bureau of Statistics data, China's aluminium production remained high in November. It was up 2.5% on the year to 3.79 million tons. (Reporting and editing by Eileen Soreng, Lewis Jackson, Dylan Duan)
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Iron ore continues to gain on improved steel margins and restocking hope
Iron ore futures continued to rise on Thursday. This was due to improved steel margins, and expectations of feedstock replenishment by steel mills in China, the top consumer. The largest iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange rose for the third consecutive session, ending daytime trading up 1.63% to 777.5 Yuan ($110.43), its highest level since December 8. As of 0722 GMT, the benchmark January iron ore traded on the Singapore Exchange had risen 0.87%. It was now trading at $104.55 per ton. The price of iron ore reached its highest level since November 27, at $104.6, earlier in the day. Analysts say that the sharp drop in coal and coke prices last week has improved profitability for some mills. Analysts at Galaxy Futures stated that "some mills could ramp up supply by the end of this month due to improved margins. However, hot metal production will continue to fall this week." Iron ore demand is usually gauged by the hot metal production, which is a blast-furnace product. In the meantime, Chinese steel mills will be frantically buying raw materials to replenish their in-plant inventories, including iron ore. This is to meet production needs during the Lunar New Year, which occurs in February. Coking - Following a decline earlier in the month, coal and coke (other steelmaking ingredients) both grew by 6.07% and 5.91%, respectively. Analysts at Galaxy Futures say that the expectation of a?reduced supply due to equipment repairs by year-end, and mills' need to restock their stocks, has supported coal prices. The majority of steel benchmarks traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have gained ground. Rebar gained 1.4%, while hot-rolled coil rose 1.05%. Stainless steel also rose 0.53%. Wire rod, however, fell by 1.19%. ($1 = 7.0409 Chinese Yuan Renminbi)
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Copper prices diverge due to US rate outlook and AI sentiment
The copper prices moved in opposite directions Thursday as the market focused on the outlook of U.S. Interest Rates, and a waning confidence within the artificial intelligence industry weighed on sentiment. The most-traded contract for copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended 0.23% higher, at 92600 yuan (13,151.73) per metric ton. As of 0718 GMT, the benchmark three-month price for copper at the London Metal Exchange fell 0.16% to $10,718.50 per ton. In his Wednesday national address, U.S. President Donald Trump said the next Federal Reserve chairman will be someone who believes in lowering interest rates by a "lot". Trump has previously stated that he would announce his choice for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's replacement, whose tenure ends in May next year. The President's remarks?came after the U.S. Central Bank lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points, which helped copper outperform other base metals. Markets are unsure whether the known finalist, White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett and Federal Reserve Governors Kevin Warsh or Chris Waller would lower rates to Trump's desire. Dollar prices are rising, making commodities priced in greenbacks more expensive for investors who use other currencies. At the same time, AI skepticism grew after Oracle's data-center partner Blue Owl Capital was reported to have backed a $10 billion contract for its next facility due to concerns over?rising spending and debt? Copper is an important metal in data centers. Red metals still enjoyed a 'good level of support, both from the supply shortage and demand outlook. This helped to limit?the size of the session decline. Aluminium was up by 0.25%. Zinc gained 0.52%. Lead?nudged higher 0.06%. Nickel gained 1.07%. Tin surged by 2.88%. Nickel gained 1.0% and tin 0.37%.
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Uganda to reduce debt issuance by 21 percent in FY 2026/27
Uganda will cut its domestic debt by 21,1% during the financial year beginning July from the previous period in order to reduce its ballooning public debt. The finance ministry announced this in a budget paper seen by by on Thursday. The paper states that in 2026/27, (July to June), a total of 9 trillions shillings worth of Treasury bonds and bills will be issued, compared with 11.4 trillions shillings the year before. The paper stated that "this reduction reflects the government's intent to avoid crowding out the private sector, to curb the rising debt to GDP ratio, and to address the increasing burden of interest payments relative revenues." According to the Ministry, interest payments on Uganda's?public?debt will consume nearly a third?of?all?internal revenues in 2026/27. Public debt as a proportion of the gross domestic product rose from 46.8% to 51% during the period ending June. The paper stated that "such elevated debt service obligations shrink fiscal space and leave fewer resources available for discretionary expenditure in high-multiplier growth-enhancing areas." Uganda's public debt totaled $32.3 billion as of June. This is up 26.2% compared to the same period a year earlier. The paper projected that economic growth would increase to 10.4% by 2026/27 from 6.6% the previous fiscal year. The paper stated that "this robust growth outlook will be primarily fueled by the start of oil production. This is expected to generate substantial revenue and boost productivity through strong inter-sectoral links." Uganda plans to begin commercial crude oil production in 2026 from fields located in the west of the country.
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As production increases, Simandou's mega-mine in Guinea is being overshadowed by mass layoffs
Guinea's Simandou Mega Mining Project, promoted by the government's military as a symbol for the country's transformation in terms of economics, is now laying off tens of thousands of workers as it finally begins to export iron ore, after years of delays and scandals. Simandou, the first election since the 2021 military coup that brought Mamady to power, was launched in November with pomp and?a public holiday. Political analysts believe that the junta's leader will be the favorite to win and could stay in power for seven more years. Guinea, even without Simandou - the largest untapped iron ore reserve in the world - is the biggest exporter of aluminium bauxite. Its mining wealth, however, has not improved the lives of many people. World Bank data from 2025 revealed that more than half of the population lives in poverty. We interviewed 12 workers, former employees and senior sources from the company. They asked not to be identified because the matter was sensitive. They said that the process of firing thousands of employees had already begun. Simandou's plans to produce 120 million metric tonnes of iron ore per year, or 7% of the global demand, is a disappointment for all those who had hoped that their lives would improve in the long run. EMPLOYMENT RISES TO MORE THAN 60 000 Companies and government sources said that the number of jobs created by Simandou would peak at over 60,000 in 2024-2025. This was because contractors were racing to meet the deadlines set forth by Guinea's ruling military to speed up iron ore exports, which had been delayed for nearly 30 years. The mines, ports and 670 km (416 miles) of railway, which was built specifically to facilitate exports from this landlocked project, will require less than 15,000. Two consortia are involved in the project - the Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS), which is mainly composed of Chinese companies, and Rio Tinto. The way that the work is organised, the reduction in the workforce is extreme. The executive said that the project was "simultaneous spread", meaning all sections were built simultaneously, and the construction workforce was boosted to the peak. "Then, everything finishes, so the whole thing falls off the cliff." WCS, who manages the majority of the rail via more than 12 subcontractors did not respond when asked for comments on its workforce. Rio Tinto is responsible for two mine blocks and 78 km of rail that connects them to the main railway network. It also manages the transshipment facilities in the new port located on the Atlantic coast of Guinea. It has employed around 25,000 people, 82% of whom are Guineans, during the construction phase. A spokesperson for Rio Tinto stated that the Simfer project would require "a workforce of approximately 6,000 people to work at a terminal for transshipment vessels at the port and in the mine." The mine construction and rail construction are scheduled to be finished next year. Work at the port is expected to continue until 2027. Chris Aitchison said that he was concerned about the risks posed by sudden job loss, also known as demobilisation in the industry. It's what's coming next? He said. He said. In similar projects, like Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi Copper Mine, former mining workers had more job options. Risk of Social Unrest and Accidents Sources in the workforce said that job cuts had already begun. In Dantilia (a hub near the border with Sierra Leone) 8,000 out of 10,000 workers lost their jobs in the past three months. The remaining 2,000 workers have been informed that their jobs are going to end in the next few months. The workers in Kamara, which is part of the same district said that around 1,500 workers had already been fired. "We're waiting in hope, but they don't yet have any solutions and haven't made any promises," said a Winning Consortium Simandou pick-up driver, who asked not to be identified. "There's no other job." According to three Western companies, there is growing concern that a reduction in staffing may increase the risk of accidents and social unrest. They were concerned about possible community protests, which could take the form of blockades on the Simandou Railway, where trains had already killed cattle and angered local residents who depended on their livestock. Sources at the company said that risk assessments conducted by consortia over the past six months highlighted the areas where people or animals could wander onto tracks and derail them, leading to the construction of fences, which the original design had not provided for. Reports in March stated that 12 workers died as a result of accidents while working on the railway project at Simandou between June 2023 to November 2024. At least five locals were also killed in traffic accidents caused by vehicles used for the construction. Rio Tinto reported five more worker deaths. Bouna Sylla, the Minister of Mines, said that the government is strict with partners regarding safety and environmental protection. GOVERNMENT PROMISES FOR FUTURE WORK The impact of job losses is magnified by Guinea's narrow skill base and lack of income buffers. Sylla, who spoke to the media days before Simandou's launch on 11 November, acknowledged that the layoffs will be painful. Sylla stated that it is not easy to lose a job after earning a good salary and waking up every morning for work. He described the government's plans for new infrastructure, such as roads, refineries, and power plants. However, he didn't give a time frame. The official launch of the new export terminal at Morebaya, on Guinea's Atlantic Coast, was full of energy, featuring brass bands, honor guards, traditional dancing and visiting dignitaries. Doumbouya, wearing a white Guinean Boubou tunic, watched from the sidelines. Guinea's military-led government is promoting "Simandou 2020" as a 15 year strategy for transforming the country into an economy based on investments in agriculture, transportation, technology, finance, and health. The government owns a 15% stake and has estimated that the cost of the plan will be $200 billion. This would be partially funded by mining revenue, but the majority should come from private capital. Sylla stated that the Administration et Controle des Grands Projets, Guinea's infrastructure agency was currently working on feasibility analyses. Two sources confirmed that the government had also commissioned KPMG to produce a report on reemployment programmes. The report will be released after the elections. KPMG declined to comment on a request. The agency for infrastructure said that the plans include 3,000 km of new highways, which will be built over 15 years. The Long Wait for Prosperity Nearly 30 years after Rio began exploring the deposit, there is still no answer to the question whether Simandou will bring prosperity to most of Guinea. In its May publication "Selected Issues" on Guinea's Economy, the IMF published a paper entitled "Guinea's Economy: A Selective Issues Paper". The macroeconomic effects Simandou will have on 2024 were modelled. The report found that it could increase the real GDP of the country by 26% by 2030. However, it said that the reduction in poverty would be minimal - only 0.6 percentage points - without policies to manage the change. It said that the project's effect on increasing the number skilled workers "could even worsen inequality, particularly in rural areas." Clara Denina, Maxwell Adombila Akalaare and Barbara Lewis contributed to the report.
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Palm oil prices rise on the back of bargain-buying, while soyoil is spread.
Malaysian palm futures rose on Thursday for the?second session in a row, boosted by bargain-buying and an improved price competition against soyoil. By midday, the benchmark palm oil contract on Bursa Derivatives Exchange for March delivery had gained 30 ringgit or 0.76% to $3,996 ringgit (US$978.21) per metric ton. Paramalingam Supramaniam is the director of Selangor brokerage Pelindung Bestari. He said that traders are buying the price drops following the recent sell-off. The price of palm oil also has become "increasingly appealing" compared to the prices for other oils, especially soybean oil. Dalian's palm oil contract gained 1.27%, but its most active soyoil contract dropped 0.31%. Prices of soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade rose?0.45%. As palm oil competes to gain a share in the global vegetable oil market, it tracks the price changes of competing edible oils. Market participants assessed the risks of a blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers, which could threaten the supply. Palm oil is a better option as a biodiesel feedstock because crude oil futures are stronger. The palm ringgit's trade currency, the dollar, edged up 0.05%, making it slightly more expensive for buyers with foreign currencies. A circular posted on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board's website revealed that Malaysia had lowered the crude palm oil price reference for January 2026 to a level which would lower the export duty from 13% to 9.5%.
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Woodside shares tumble as CEO departs for BP
Australian shares recovered early losses and closed little?changed? on Thursday. Gains in heavily-weighted miners offset?a??drop? in top oil & gas producer Woodside Energy, after its CEO announced a surprising move to lead BP. After a three-day decline, the S&P/ASX 200 Index fell up to 0.4% and closed unchanged at 8,588.20. The main index, however, was on track to end its last full trading week in 2025, with a 1.3% drop, as sticky inflation and strong economic growth shattered expectations of future interest rate reductions. The markets now expect the central bank to make its next move upwards in the second half of next year instead of the rate cut they had expected earlier. Craig Sidney is a senior investment adviser at Shaw & Partners. "Volumes are expected to dry up significantly by Monday. Therefore, moves can be made in either direction." Banks finished flat with losses at the "big four" remaining banks offset by a 0.7% gain in Australia's top lender Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Energy stocks fell to their lowest closing in almost two months. This was led by a drop of 2.7% in?Woodside Energy. Woodside, the oil and gas company, has posted its lowest closing since late October following Meg O'Neill's departure to lead BP Plc. Woodside merged BHP's petroleum division with Woodside to form a top 10 independent?oil-and-gas producer in the world valued at $40 billion. It also doubled its production of oil and natural gas. Iron ore prices rose and miners eked out 0.2% gains. Sidney says that the sector, which usually outperforms when there is a strong Australian currency, will continue to gain next year, as rate hike expectations would lead to an increase in the Australian dollar. The benchmark S&P/NZX50 index in New Zealand fell 0.3% to 13,256.77. This is its lowest closing since late September. The third-quarter data confirmed early signs of a recovery in the economy. (Reporting and editing by Subhranshu S. Sahu in Bengaluru. Nikita Maria J. Jino is based in Bengaluru.
The MORNING BID EUROPE - BoE will make it to the list as the others remain on course
Tom Westbrook gives us a look at what the future holds for European and global markets.
The markets expect that the Bank of England will be the sole mover in a series of central bank meetings on Thursday. A 25-basis point rate cut to 3.75 percent is almost as predictable as the collapse of the top order at the Ashes Test in Adelaide.
Investors were reassured by the unexpected drop in UK inflation on Wednesday. However, with inflation at the highest level among G7 countries, 3.2%, it is unlikely that further rate cuts will be imminent.
Sterling is down to $1.3374.
It is expected that the European Central Bank will keep its rates at 2%, signaling a lack of appetite for rate cuts. The bank may also increase its growth forecasts. The central banks of Sweden and Norway will also remain at their current rates, which are 1.75% and 4.0% respectively.
Meg O'Neill is the new CEO of BP, the British oil and natural gas company. She was previously the CEO of Australia's Woodside Energy. BP wants to refocus its efforts on hydrocarbons following a diversion into renewables.
Sources say that activist investor Elliott Management is in the process of lining up potential candidates for CEO.
President Donald Trump announced in a rare evening speech from the White House that he would pay a "warrior's dividend" of $1,776 to 1,45 million U.S. military personnel.
Investors should take note of Trump's statement that he will soon announce the choice for the next Federal Reserve chair, adding "someone who is a big believer in lower interest rates".
The November U.S. Inflation data will be released on Thursday. However, it won't include a comparison of the month to month figures because October numbers were not collected due to the U.S. Government shutdown.
The markets were roiled by AI fears that started on Wall Street. Asian bourses also suffered losses, while oil prices rose on the news of U.S. sanctions against Russia for its Venezuelan blockade.
Oracle, a texan cloud computing firm, is the main focus of concern. Shares fell 5.4% when it announced that a deal for equity to support a project for a data centre would not include Blue Owl Capital as a partner.
Stocks have fallen by almost 50% since mid-September, when a deal made with OpenAI led to a 35% rally in a single day.
The Bank of Japan has begun a two-day session in Tokyo that is expected to result in a rate increase on Friday. If the markets aren't convinced of further increases, the yen could be the focus of sales.
The following are key developments that may influence the markets on Thursday.
Decisions made by the Bank of England and European Central Bank. Riksbank, Norges Bank
US November CPI
(source: Reuters)