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As geopolitical risk increases, gold prices are on the verge of a record high.
Gold extended gains on Tuesday, boosted by demand for safe-haven assets after the 'U.S. The?capture' of Venezuela's President fueled global tensions. Investors awaited U.S. Payroll data to gain insight into the Federal Reserve interest rate policy. By 01:40 pm, spot gold had risen 0.8% to $4,485.39 an ounce. ET (1840 GMT), following a nearly 3-percent gain in the previous day, prices are now closer to the record high $4,549.71 set on December 24. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery settled?1% higher, at $4496.010. Jim Wyckoff is a senior analyst with Kitco Metals. He said that precious metals traders are more concerned about the future than bond and stock traders. The weekend U.S. attack on Venezuela has also fueled the demand for safe havens like gold and silver. After the U.S. had seized Maduro and taken him to New York at the weekend, the ousted Venezuelan president pleaded 'not guilty' to charges of narcotics. The gold price, which is considered to be a safe haven by many, rose 64.4% in the last year. This was its best performance since 1979. The market participants will also be looking at Friday's U.S. employment report. It is expected to show that 60,000 new jobs were added in December, a slight decrease from the 64,000 created in November. According to LSEG, traders are pricing in at least two Federal Reserve rate reductions this year. Tom Barkin, the Richmond Fed president, said that future rate changes need to be "finely-tuned" in order to balance both unemployment and inflation risks. Low interest rates tend to be beneficial for non-yielding metals. Morgan Stanley predicted that gold prices would surge to $4800 by the fourth quarter of this calendar year. They cited falling interest rates, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and central bank and funds purchases. Spot silver, whose all-time record high was $83.62 per ounce on December 29, gained 5.4%, to $80.68. Silver's annual gain was 147% in 2025. This was due to a rise in industrial demand and investor interest. Palladium was 5.9% higher, at $1,821.68 an ounce. Spot platinum rose 7.2% to $2,435.20. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier, Vijay Kishore, and Anmol Choubey from Bengaluru)
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Futures prices for soybeans and grains are rising as China purchases more US supplies
Chicago Board of Trade Soybean futures rose slightly on Tuesday, as China purchased more U.S. soybeans. The corn and wheat futures both rose slightly as the agricultural markets continued to gain after recovering?on Monday? from recent multi-week?lows. Traders were watching closely the?Chinese?demand for U.S. soybeans after Washington announced in late October Beijing's agreement to purchase supplies as part a truce between the two countries in their trade war. Three traders said that China's stockpiler Sinograin bought 10 U.S. soy cargoes this week, totaling around 600,000 tons. U.S. Department?Agriculture confirmed later that exporters had sold 336,000 metric tonnes of U.S. soya beans to China for delivery in 2025/2026. Traders said China's total U.S. soya purchases have risen to 10 million tons in the time since the trade truce. This is more than 80% of the 12 million metric tonnes that U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent had previously stated China would buy by the end?of February. Jim Gerlach of A/C Trading, Indiana, stated that some traders feared Beijing would stop buying after the U.S. captured Venezuela's president, a Chinese strategic partner. Gerlach stated that "the fact that they purchased beans despite the goings on is supportive." The most active CBOT soybean contracts were up a cent to $10.63 per bushel at 11:30 am CST (1730 GMT). The benchmark contract reached its lowest level in October on Friday. CBOT Corn rose by 2 cents to $4.46-1/2 per bushel. CBOT Wheat gained 1/2 cent to $5.13 per bushel. On Friday, wheat reached its lowest level since October. Corn hit a 2-week low on Monday and then turned higher. Gerlach stated that the fear of dry weather damaging corn crops in Argentina was a factor in driving prices. Analysts kept an eye out for dryness in the U.S. wheat belts. Josh Lawrence, an advisor consultant at IKON Commodities, said that "pockets of dryness" in the U.S. Plains supported wheat. The gains were still limited due to the abundance of supplies from major exporting nations. Grain traders also watched investor flows, which are linked to changes in commodity indexes and were looking forward to the crop data that the U.S. Department of Agriculture is due to release next Monday.
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As geopolitical risk increases, gold prices are on the verge of a record high.
Gold extended gains on Tuesday due to the demand for safe-haven assets after 'the U.S. The capture of Venezuelan president fuelled global tensions. Investors awaited U.S. employment data to gain insight into Federal Reserve interest rate policy. By 11:50 am, spot gold had risen 0.9% to $4,488.10 an ounce. After a near 3% increase in the previous session at 1650 GMT, prices are now closer to the record high price of $4,497.11 set on December 24. U.S. Gold Futures for February Delivery advanced by?1% to $4496. Jim Wyckoff is a senior analyst with Kitco Metals. He said that precious metals traders are more concerned about the future than bond and stock traders. The weekend U.S. attack on Venezuela fueled the demand for safe havens like gold and silver. After the U.S. had seized Maduro and taken him to New York at the weekend, the ousted Venezuelan president pleaded not guilt?on Monday? to narcotics? charges. The gold price, which is considered to be a safe haven by many, rose 64.4% in the last year. This was its best performance since 1979. The market participants will also be watching Friday's U.S. employment report. It is expected to show that 60,000 new jobs were added in December. This is a slight decrease from the 64,000 jobs added the previous month. According to LSEG, traders are pricing in at least two Federal Reserve rate reductions this year. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said that future rate changes need to be "finely-tuned" in order to balance both unemployment and inflation risks. Low interest rates tend to be beneficial for non-yielding metals. Morgan Stanley predicted that gold prices would surge to $4800 by the fourth quarter of this calendar year. They cited falling interest rates, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and central bank and funds purchases. Spot silver, whose all-time record high was $83.62 per ounce on December 29, gained 5.3% to $80.57. Silver's annual gain was 147% in 2025. This was due to a rise in industrial demand and investor interest. Palladium was 6.3% higher, at $1,815 an ounce. Spot platinum rose 6.5% to $2,417.70. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier, Vijay Kishore and Anmol Choubey from Bengaluru)
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Investors await economic data to see if stocks will rise and the dollar inch up.
Investors focused on the key data that will be released later this week to help gauge the outlook of the Federal Reserve policy. Prices of oil are falling. Investors were monitoring developments in . Maria Corina Machado has promised to return to her country as soon as possible, hailing U.S. president Donald Trump for overthrowing her opponent, Nicolas Maduro. She also declared that her movement was ready to win an election free of corruption. Trump's administration will meet with executives of oil companies this week to discuss increasing production in Venezuela. There's a lot of retooling needed to prepare these downstream producers for this crude oil. It is possible - and will probably be. Mark Malek is chief investment officer of Siebert Financial. He said that the biggest questions are how long it will take to invest, how much, and by whom. Stock Indices Climb Investors?bet Washington that it would allow U.S. companies access to Venezuelan oil reserves. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by?173.14 or 0.35% to 49,150.32. The?S&P 500 rose by 27.19 or 0.39% to 6,929.24. And the Nasdaq Composite grew 110.14 or 0.47% to 23,505.95. The MSCI index of global stocks rose 5.53 points or 0.54% to 1,033.55. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose by 0.66%. Investors remain confident in economic prospects despite the escalating tensions on geopolitical fronts. The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket?of currencies including the yen, the euro and others) rose by 0.18%, reaching 98.56. U.S. ECONOMIC DATA TO SET MARKET TONE Markets were buoyed by the expectation of interest rate reductions in the United States. Traders focused on the U.S. employment report due Friday. This will affect market expectations on monetary policy. According to LSEG, financial markets are pricing two Fed rate reductions this year. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10 year notes increased 2 basis points to 4.185% from 4.163% on Monday. U.S. crude dropped 0.27%, to $58.16 per barrel. Brent fell to $61.65 a barrel, down by 0.18%. Gold prices rose on Tuesday as demand for safe-haven assets boosted the price. Gold spot was up 0.9% to $4,486.12 an ounce at 11:54 am?ET (1654 GMT) after nearly 3% gains in the previous session. Nickel soared more than 9% and copper jumped to a new all-time peak, as concerns about supply fueled a rally early in the year for industrial metals.
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Why is Somaliland strategically important?
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, met with the President of Somaliland Tuesday. This was 10 days after Israel officially recognised the breakaway region of?the Horn of Africa' as a sovereign and independent state. Somalia has protested the move, saying that it is a threat to its sovereignty. A Somaliland source and regional diplomat have said other countries are preparing to follow their lead and'recognise Somaliland. U.S. U.S. Why is the location of Somaliland strategic? Somaliland is located at the intersection of the Indian Ocean, Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. Its Berbera Port provides access to the busiest shipping routes in the world. Analysts believe that Israel's recognition of Somaliland is a response to the Houthi militia's attacks on ships plying these routes. This could lead to an agreement for military cooperation between Israel and Somaliland. Somaliland has, however, denied that recognition would allow Israel to set up military bases or resettle?Palestinians in Gaza. What other countries could?recognise Somaliland? Ethiopia, Africa's most populous landlocked country, also has its eyes on Somaliland. In 2024, it announced a memorandum to lease a region around the Berbera Port in exchange for Addis Ababa recognizing the region's independent status. This deal provoked an angry response in Somalia and brought the Mogadishu Government closer to Egypt. Egypt has been at odds with Ethiopia over Addis Ababa’s construction of?a vast dam on the Nile River for years. Eritrea is another Ethiopian foe. Turkey maintains close ties to both Ethiopia and Somalia. It trains Somalia's security force and provides development assistance as a way of gaining a foothold along the main global shipping route. Ethiopia agreed to work with Somalia in December 2024 after talks were mediated by Turkey. However, it now appears to be preparing to recognize Somaliland. India has 'denied' talk on X about it also preparing for recognition of Somaliland. However, some analysts say that India should do this to counter Chinese influence in the Horn of Africa and specifically Djibouti as well as Kenya?and Tanzania. United Arab Emirates has carved out its own sphere in the region. The Abraham Accords, mediated by the United States, normalised Israel's relations in 2020. The Berbera Port is run by Dubai's state-owned company DP World. It also runs Berbera Airport and a Free Trade Zone between the airport and port. (Written by Silvia Aloisi and William Maclean)
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As geopolitical risk increases, gold prices are on the verge of a record high.
Gold extended its gains on Tuesday, boosted by demand for safe-haven assets after the?U.S. The capture of Venezuela's President sparked global tensions. Investors awaited U.S. Payroll data to gain insight into the Federal Reserve interest rate policy. By 09:55 am, spot gold had risen 0.9% to $4,488.10 an ounce. After a near 3% rise in the previous session (1455 GMT), prices are now a little closer to the December 24 record high of $4,497.11. U.S. Gold futures for?delivery in February rose 1.1% to $4498.70. Jim Wyckoff is a senior analyst with Kitco Metals. He said that precious metals traders are more concerned about the future than bond and stock traders. The weekend U.S. attack on Venezuela has also fueled the demand for gold, silver and other safe havens. After the U.S. took him to New York at the weekend, the ousted Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro plead not guilty Monday?to charges of narcotics. The gold price, which is considered to be a safe haven by many, rose 64.4% in the past year. This was its best performance since 1979. The market participants will also be looking at Friday's U.S. employment report. It is expected to show that 60,000 new jobs were added in December. This represents a slight decrease from the 64,000 added the month before. According to?LSEG, traders are pricing in at least two Federal Reserve rate reductions this year. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said that future rate changes need to be "fine-tuned"?to balance unemployment and inflation risks. Low interest rates tend to be beneficial for non-yielding metals. Morgan Stanley predicted that gold prices would?surge? to $4,800 in the fourth quarter this year. They cited falling 'interest rates', changes of leadership at the Federal Reserve, and central bank and funds purchases. Spot silver, which reached an all-time peak of $83.62 per ounce on December 29, increased 4.8% to $80.18. Silver's annual gain was 147% in 2025. This is due to a rise in industrial and investor demand. Palladium was 5.2% higher, at $1,795.68 an ounce. Spot platinum traded up 5.2% to $2,388.50. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier in Bengaluru, Anmol Choubey)
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Nickel surges after new mine disruptions and copper reaches record highs
The price of copper soared on Tuesday, as concerns about supply fueled a rally in the early part of the year. Nickel also reached a 15-month high above $18,000 per metric ton due to?Indonesia’s mine production curbs. In official open-outcry trading on the?London Metal Exchange, benchmark three-month copper was up 1.8% to $13,225 per ton. It had earlier jumped by as much as a whopping 3.1% to $13,387.50. Red metal prices have already increased by 6.6% since 2026. On Monday, they crossed $13,000, after a 42.2% increase last year. Ewa Mannthey, ING analyst, said that "Copper's?"move above $13,000" is driven by a growing discrepancy between a structurally tight supply of copper and a accelerating demand for it from?electrification projects and data centres. "Years underinvestment and mine disruptions continue to leave the market with little cushion." A strike at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde gold and copper mine in northern Chile?has re-invigorated supply concerns. Meanwhile, Chinese copper producer Tongling Nonferrous reported a delay to the?launch of its Ecuadorian mine's second phase. LME Copper Stocks Inventory levels on the Comex exchange have dropped to their lowest level since November 17. The price of copper is expected to rise due to the possibility of a U.S. tariff on the metal, resulting in a shortage of supplies outside the United States. Nickel jumped 6.1% to $18,045 per ton. This is the highest price since October 7, 2024, due to?Indonesia’s plans to reduce output. Miners can refer to the previously approved quotas for 2026 until March 31, while new quotas will be reviewed. Manthey stated that "Indonesia’s tightening of its grip on production, via slower...approvals and planned quota reductions in 2026, has proven to be?highly efficient at raising prices in the short-term." "But with an expected surplus of a significant amount in 2026, the rally is unlikely to continue unless either supply curbs are deepened or demand improves meaningfully." Aluminium increased by 0.8%, reaching $3,111 per ton. Zinc was up 1.5%, at $3,241.50, after hitting its highest level since October 2024. Lead climbed 1.2%, to $2,048. The price of tin rose by 4.6%, to $44,400. It had previously risen as high as 7.4% and reached its highest level since march 2022. (Reporting and editing by Janane Vekatraman, Joe Bavier and Lewis Jackson; Additional reporting and editing by Lewis Jackson and Dylan Duan)
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Venezuelan international bonds continue rallying after Maduro's capture
Venezuela's sovereign international bonds gained?more than 2 cents Tuesday, continuing a rally that began in the previous session. This was fuelled by the optimism of investors following the capture by the U.S. over the weekend of President Nicolas Maduro. Tradeweb data shows that the defaulted 2034 notes accounted for some of the largest gains. They added 2.5 cents to the bid price at 43.01 cents per dollar. Some bonds rose close to 10 cents on Monday. Petroleos de Venezuela bonds also rose in value, with the 2031 bond up by 2 cents and now bid at 42.60cents. Several of the 'bonds are trading at their highest level since Donald?Trump began his first term in January 2017. This marked the beginning of a sharp increase of U.S. sanction regime against Caracas, which saw Venezuela go into sovereign default. Since Trump began his second term, in January 2025, many bonds have nearly tripled in price. Fuelled by Hope For a regime change in Venezuela that would pave the way for a future debt restructuring. Jared Lou, portfolio director at William Blair Investment Management said: "We believe the outlook for debt restructuring could shift significantly, as expectations have improved for the ultimate?recovery of Venezuelan debt." Venezuelan bond values could rise if a credible, structured political transition takes place. This would allow U.S. oil companies to resume operations and enable sovereign debt restructuring. (Reporting and editing by Karin Strohecker; Andrew Heavens, Libby George)
Gold to shine again in 2019 despite highest gain since 1979
The gold price has doubled in the past two years, making it the biggest increase since the oil crisis of 1979. This performance could have been interpreted as a forecast for a major correction.
Analysts at JP Morgan and Bank of America, as well as Metals Focus, now expect 'bullion to reach $5,000 per troy-ounce by 2026.
Spot gold prices hit a record of $4,381 per ounce in October. They had never reached $3,000 prior to March. This was due to demand from central banks and investors, including stablecoin issuer Tether as well as corporate treasurers.
BofA's Michael Widmer, a strategist, said that the expectation of future gains or portfolio diversification is driving the buying. This is due to the U.S. budget deficit, the efforts to reduce the U.S. Current Account deficit, and the weak dollar policy.
Philip Newman said that Metals Focus's managing director, Philip Newman, believes the support for metals is due to concerns about U.S. Federal Reserve Independence, tariff disputes, and geopolitics, including war in Ukraine, and Russia’s interaction with NATO nations in Europe.
CENTRAL BANKS ANCHOR CYCLE
Analysts said that central banks diversifying their reserves away from dollar-denominated investments for a fifth consecutive year should provide a solid foundation for gold by 2026, as they will buy at a time when investors are stretched and money is rotating, while prices are falling.
Gregory Shearer is the head of JP Morgan's base and precious metals strategies. He said, "The price level has been supported higher than it was when you first started due to central bank demand."
"And then, all of a suddenly, we're above $4,000, in a much more cleaner environment, from a position perspective, which allows the cycle to go forward," he explained, referring to signals that investors use to extend positions again after derisking.
Analysts at JP Morgan estimate that quarterly central bank demand and investment of 350 metric tonnes is required for prices to remain flat. This buying is expected to be 585 tons on average per quarter by 2026.
JP Morgan Shearer stated that the share of gold in total assets managed by investors has risen from 1.5% to 2.8%, compared with levels before 2022. She added that this is not a ceiling, but rather a high level.
Morgan Stanley predicts that gold will be $4,500 an ounce by the middle of 2026. JP Morgan anticipates prices to average above $4,600 per ounce in Q2 and $5,000 in Q4. Metals Focus expects gold to reach $5,000 by the end of 2026.
Hedging Equity Bets
BIS, the global central bank umbrella group, said that gold and stock prices rising in tandem is a phenomenon seen for at least half a decade. This raises questions about potential bubbles in both.
Gold analysts say that part of the gold purchases this year were a hedge to protect against sharp corrections on equity markets. This was fuelled by tensions among historic allies due to tariffs, trade issues and the war in Ukraine.
Gold is still at risk, since sharp corrections on the equity market often lead to the sale of safe haven assets.
Nicky Shiels is the head of metals at MKS PAMP. He predicts that prices will average $4,500 by 2026. Gold, according to Shiels, will be "a multi-year, secular portfolio asset, rather than a hedge".
Analysts expect the gold rally to be less dramatic by 2026.
Macquarie's economists said that the world had stabilised. They predicted a recovery in global growth and a tapering of central bank easing.
Macquarie expects gold prices to average $4,225 by 2026, a little lower than Wednesday's spot price of $4 317.
In the meantime, central bank purchases of?gold ETFs and inflows to them are expected to slow next year. The jewellery market, which dropped 23% in third quarter is under pressure, and retail demand for coins and bars can only partially compensate for this.
Amy Gower is a commodities strategist with Morgan Stanley. She said that in October, the queues of retail clients?seen by Morgan Stanley in Australia and Europe?may have represented a shift from jewellery to investments. This trend may continue into next year.
Newman, at Metals Focus, says that the demand for coins and bars did not show much profit-taking following October. He adds: "If prices start to rise again, you may well be able to buy into this rally."
The supply response is muted, with only a 6% increase in recycling.
Macquarie says total gold demand will rise by 11% to 5,150 tonnes this year, then fall to 4,815 tons in 2026.
CRYPTO MEETS SILVER
Fed easing has brought in a new institutional investor for gold, in the form Tether. Tether is the issuer of the largest stablecoin in the world.
The third quarter reports from Tether show that it bought 26 tons of gold, which is five times the amount reported by China's central banks.
Morgan Stanley's Gower stated that the issue is not one to be overlooked, but added it was unclear whether other firms would adopt a similar approach because of U.S. The GENIUS Act doesn't list gold as a stablecoin reserve asset.
India has allowed pension funds to purchase gold and silver ETFs.
Metals Focus reported that China allowed insurance funds to purchase gold in February. However, these purchases were limited due to the bullion's rise.
(source: Reuters)