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Fuel demand worries raised by Chinese and US data cause oil to fall

Fuel demand worries raised by Chinese and US data cause oil to fall

Oil prices dropped on Friday, as concerns about fuel demand were heightened by the economic data coming out of the U.S., China and Russia.

Brent crude futures dropped 39 cents or 0.58% to $66.45 per barrel at 0750 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude Futures fell 42 cents or 0.66% to $63.54.

WTI and Brent are expected to fall 0.5% each for the week.

Data released by the Chinese government on Friday revealed that factory output growth had fallen to its lowest level in eight months and retail sales were growing at their slowest rate since December. This weighed on sentiment, despite a stronger oil flow.

Data released by the government on Friday shows that throughput in Chinese refineries increased 8.9% from June, when it was at its highest level since September 2023. China's oil exports were up last month despite the higher throughput. This suggests a lower demand for domestic fuel.

The prospect of interest rates in the United States rising for a longer period of time and forecasts of an increasing oil surplus also contributed to the negative sentiment.

Bank of America analysts stated in a note published on Thursday that they are increasing their forecast of the oil surplus, citing the growing supply from OPEC+. This group is made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia, and other allies.

Analysts now predict an average surplus between July 2025 and June 2026 of 890 000 barrels per day.

This forecast comes after predictions made earlier in the week by the International Energy Agency, which said that the oil market appears "bloated" following the OPEC+ increase.

In the U.S. the Federal Reserve has been hesitant to reduce interest rates due to the higher than expected inflation and the weaker jobs data. Lower interest rates boost economic activity and are therefore positive for oil demand.

Investors also await the Friday meeting between Trump and Putin, where a ceasefire is on the agenda. Trump has said that he believes Russia will end the Ukraine conflict.

A ceasefire may lead to a relaxation of sanctions against Russian oil. (Reporting and editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman, Christian Schmollinger and Laila Howe)

(source: Reuters)