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Oil recovers from 2-month-lows ahead of Trump and Putin meeting

The oil prices rose on Thursday after losing ground in the previous session. The upcoming meeting between U.S. president Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin raised risk premiums.

Brent crude futures increased 28 cents or 0.43% to $65.91 a barrel at 0057 GMT. U.S. West Texas intermediate crude futures rose by 23 cents or 0.37% to $62.89.

The two contracts reached their lowest levels in the past two months after the U.S. Government and the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a bearish supply forecast.

Trump warned on Wednesday of "severe consequences", if Putin did not agree to peace with Ukraine. Trump didn't specify the possible consequences, but warned of economic sanctions in the event that the meeting on Friday in Alaska proves to be fruitless.

Rystad Energy stated in a note to clients that "the uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Russian peace talks continues adding a bullish premium on risk, given Russian oil purchasers could face increased economic pressure."

The way the Ukraine-Russia crisis is resolved and Russia's flows change may bring about some unexpected surprises.

The expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve would cut rates in September has reached close to 100%, after U.S. Inflation increased moderately in July.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes that a half-point reduction is possible, given the recent low employment figures.

According to CME FedWatch, the market has 99.9% odds that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter percentage point at its meeting on September 16-17.

Lower borrowing rates will drive oil demand. On Thursday, the dollar hovered near its multi-week lows versus the euro and pound sterling as traders increased their bets that the Fed would resume cutting interest rates in the next month.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Wednesday, oil prices remained stable as crude inventories unexpectedly increased by 3 million barrels during the week ending August 8. This was contrary to expectations based on a poll that predicted a draw of 275,000 barrels.

The International Energy Agency also predicted that world oil production would increase more quickly than expected in 2025 and 2026 as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies increased output, and outside producers grew. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue in Tokyo, with Katya Glubkova reporting from Tokyo)

(source: Reuters)