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Japan's core inflation slows, but remains above BOJ target. This keeps bets on a hike alive

Japan's core inflation slows, but remains above BOJ target. This keeps bets on a hike alive

Japan's core rate of inflation, while slowing in June, has remained above the central bank target of 2% for more than three years. This highlights the lingering pressures on prices that support market expectations for future interest rate increases.

The data shows the difficulty the Bank of Japan faces when determining how soon it will resume raising rates from their still low levels, while balancing the mounting pressure on inflation and the risks that U.S. Tariffs pose to an already fragile economy.

Data released on Friday showed that the core consumer price index, which excludes volatile costs of fresh foods, increased 3.3% from a previous year in June. This was consistent with a market consensus.

The increase was lower than the 3.7% in May, mainly due to the resumption gasoline subsidies. However, it remained above the 2% target set by the central bank for the 39th consecutive month.

Separate index which excludes both fuel and fresh food costs, closely monitored by the BOJ to measure domestic demand-driven price increases, rose 3.4% from a previous year in June after rising 3.3% in May.

"Underlying Inflation remains elevated and will almost certainly exceed the Bank of Japan forecasts." The BOJ may be hesitant to act for a longer period of time than expected, given the trade tensions that are threatening the economy.

The BOJ is expected to review the data at its next policy session on July 30 and 31. At this meeting, the board will revise its inflation forecast as part of a quarterly assessment.

Food prices, excluding volatile fresh foods like vegetables, increased 8.2% from a year ago in June, an acceleration from the 7.7% increase in the previous month, which is a sign that cost of living pressures are increasing in households.

Data showed that the cost of rice staples nearly doubled compared to the previous year, resulting in a 19% increase in the price of rice balls and a 6.5% rise in the prices of sushi.

The data revealed that service-sector prices rose by 1.5% from 1.4% in may, indicating that companies passed on higher labour costs, albeit at slower rate than goods.

The BOJ ended a ten-year-old, radical stimulus program last year. In January, it raised the short-term rate to 0.5% on the belief that Japan is on the verge of achieving its 2% inflation goal.

The central bank may have signalled that it is willing to increase rates, but the impact of increased U.S. Tariffs on the economy forced them to lower their growth forecasts for May. This complicated the decision-making process around when to raise the rate next.

The first quarter of the year saw Japan's economy shrink as higher living costs impacted consumption. Exports dropped in May, the first drop in eight months. This stoked recession fears.

In a poll conducted in June, a slight majority of respondents expected that the BOJ would not raise rates this year.

(source: Reuters)