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Oil drops as IEA increases supply forecast and investors wait for US-Russian meeting

The oil prices dropped on Wednesday, after the IEA stated that supply has surpassed demand in this year. Investors were awaiting Friday's meeting of U.S. president Donald Trump with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Brent crude futures dropped 45 cents or 0.7% to $65.67 per barrel at 0831 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures were down 53 cents or 0.8%, at $62.64.

On Tuesday, both contracts were settled at lower prices.

Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska this Friday to discuss ending Russia’s war in Ukraine that has shaken the oil markets since 2022.

In a recent note, PVM Oil analyst Tamas Variga said that oil prices fell on the expectation that the Friday summit would not lead to additional sanctions against Russia. This ensures the country's crude will continue to flow primarily to the east and south.

The International Energy Agency announced on Wednesday

raised

OPEC+ has lowered their forecast for oil demand growth in the coming year, but they have not lowered their forecast for oil supply.

Varga said that the updated monthly report of OPEC on global supply-demand was the most important source of long-term support. It raised the global oil demand forecasts for next year, while reducing the estimate for the growth in the supply from the United States, and other producers outside OPEC+, indicating a tighter marketplace.

Investors were also waiting for further clues, after a report from the industry showed that U.S. crude stocks rose last week.

Market sources cited American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday to report that crude inventories in the United States - the world's largest oil consumer - rose by 1,52 million barrels during the past week. Gasoline stocks fell while distillate stockpiles rose slightly, according to market sources.

According to the polled analysts, today's Energy Information Administration report will show that crude inventories dropped by approximately 300,000 barrels in the last week.

In its Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecast that Brent prices would average less than $60 a barrel in the fourth-quarter, the lowest average price since 2020. The EIA stated that the growth of global oil supplies would exceed the growth in demand for petroleum. (Reporting from Seher Dareen and Jeslyn in Singapore, with editing by Christian Schmollinger & Stephen Coates).

(source: Reuters)