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Trump's threats against Russian crude buyers have led to a rebound in oil prices

On Wednesday, oil prices rose, recovering from a five week low the day before, amid concerns about supply disruptions following U.S. president Donald Trump's threat of tariffs against India for its Russian crude purchase.

Brent crude futures rose 43 cents (0.6%) to $68.07 per barrel at 0330 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 40 cents (0.6%), reaching $65.56 per barrel.

Market chatter has grown that China's purchases may be the next thing to come under scrutiny, according to ING commodity analysts on Thursday.

They said that if India stopped buying Russian oil due to tariff threats, the market could cope with this loss. The bigger risk, however, was if the other buyers started to avoid Russian oil.

The oil contract prices fell more than one dollar on Tuesday, reaching their lowest level in five weeks. This was the fourth session that both contracts had lost money, due to concerns about oversupply resulting from OPEC+’s planned September production increase.

Investors are assessing if India will reduce their Russian crude purchases as a response to Trump's threat, which could tighten the supply. But it is yet to be seen whether this will happen," said Yuki Tasashima.

He said that if India's imports remained steady, WTI would likely stay in the $60-$70 price range for the remainder of the month.

OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and its allies agreed on Sunday to increase oil production by 547,000 barges per day in September. This will bring an end to the most recent cut in output earlier than expected.

OPEC+ produces about half the oil in the world. For several years, the group had curtailed production to help the market. This year, the group has accelerated its output to regain some market share.

The U.S. demand that India stop buying Russian oil, as Washington looks for ways to pressure Moscow to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine, could disrupt supply as Indian refiners look for alternatives and Russian crude gets redirected to another buyer.

Trump threatened on Tuesday to increase tariffs on Indian products over the country's Russian-oil purchases in the next 24 hour. Trump said that falling energy prices may also pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin into ending the war in Ukraine.

New Delhi called Trump’s threat “unjustified” and pledged to protect its own economic interests, deepening the trade rift between two countries.

Takashima, from Nomura, also cited industry data that showed crude inventories in America, the largest oil consumer in the world, as a positive for the oil markets.

Sources citing American Petroleum Institute data said Tuesday that U.S. crude stocks fell by 4.2 millions barrels during the past week. This compares to a poll estimation of a 600,000.0 barrels draw in the week ending August 1.

Wednesday is the day that the U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly inventories. Reporting by Yuka Obaashi in Tokyo, Jeslyne Lerh and Stephen Coates in Singapore. Editing by Christian Schmollinger & Stephen Coates.

(source: Reuters)