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The Russian oil price has remained below the budget target for 2025

The Russian oil price has remained below the budget target for 2025

Calculations showed that the average Russian oil price in roubles remained below the federal budget target for 2025. This added pressure to a budget already facing a growing deficit.

The weakness of the rouble is due to its strength, which has increased by around 45% in the past year as a result of a easing of geopolitical tensions.

The dollar value of international oil prices has dropped by about 10%.

Estimations show that the average price for Russia's oil mix, as calculated for taxation, was 4,701 Rubels per barrel during the first two weeks in July. This is about the same level as June, but 11.1% lower than the revised budget target.

Last week, the finance ministry announced that the budget deficit had reached 3,69 trillion roubles (47.31 billion dollars), or 1,7% of the gross domestic product in the first six months of the year. This is the same amount as was expected for the entire year.

In April, Russia increased the estimate of the budget deficit for 2025 to 1.7% from 0.5%. This was after it reduced the energy revenue forecasts by 24%.

The state's spending on defence increased by a quarter to 6.3% in 2025, the highest level since the Cold War. This was due to the fact that the country is still fighting in Ukraine.

Oil markets have been impacted by the economic uncertainty and the increased production of OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and its allies including Russia.

The price of rouble oil is calculated using a Russian currency exchange rate of 78.39 to $1 during the first two weeks in July, and a barrel average of $59.97.

The government has set a target price for oil in roubles of 5,281 per barrel, with a rate of 94.3% per $1. Meanwhile, the price in dollars is set at $56.

(source: Reuters)