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China's surplus crude is a major factor in the June surge of refiners' options, says Russell

China's surplus crude is a major factor in the June surge of refiners' options, says Russell

In June, China increased the rate at which it builds crude oil stocks as its strongest imports for almost two years overshadowed a rise of refinery processing.

China's crude surplus reached 1.42 million barrels a day (bpd), up from 1.40 in May, and was the fourth consecutive month that the level of 1 million bpd was exceeded.

China's crude surplus for the first half 2025 was 1.06 million barrels per day, after strong oil imports in the second quarter overcame the soft start of the year.

China's refiners have options in the coming months. They can trim imports, if they feel that oil prices are too high as a result last month of the Israel-Iran war.

China does not reveal the volume of crude oil flowing in or out of its strategic and commercial stockspiles. However, an estimate can still be made if you subtract the amount of crude oil that is available through imports and domestic production from the total crude.

According to calculations based upon official data released Tuesday, refiners processed 15,15 million bpd during June. This is an 8.8% increase from May, and the highest since September 2023.

In June, crude oil imports from the world's biggest crude oil importer reached 12,14 million barrels per day, which is the highest rate since August 2023 and an increase of 7.1% compared to May.

In June, domestic oil production increased to 4.43 million barrels per day (bpd) from 4.35 in May.

After subtracting the 15.15 million barrels per day of refinery output, 16.57 million bpd crude is available for refiners. This leaves a surplus 1.42 million barrels per day.

Not all this excess crude has likely been stored, as some is processed in plants that are not included in the official data.

Even if you ignore the gaps in official data, there is no doubt that since March China has imported crude oil at a rate far greater than what it requires to meet its own domestic fuel needs.

Price Moves

China is known to import more crude oil than necessary when the price of crude oil is low. However, it pulls back when prices increase.

Imports surged in the second quarter, despite falling crude oil prices at the time the cargoes were arranged.

Brent crude oil futures fell from $75.47 per barrel on April 2, to a low of $58.50 per barrel, a four-year high on May 5. This is the period when cargoes arriving in the second quarter could have been secured.

In contrast, China's low crude imports during the first quarter occurred after prices rose in the window where those cargoes were purchased.

Brent rose from $70.85 per barrel in December to $82.63 on January 15. This meant that China's refiners faced rising import costs on cargoes arriving during the first quarter.

Brent prices have fluctuated in recent weeks due to the conflict that erupted between Israel and Iran, later joined by United States.

Brent crude oil reached a six month high of $81.40 per barrel on June 23, but has since moderated, ending at $68.71 a barrel on Tuesday. Concerns are growing over the economic impact on the world of higher import tariffs announced by U.S. president Donald Trump.

China's refiners may reduce imports in August and September due to this volatility, but it depends on whether or not the spike in June is a temporary blip in an otherwise declining price trend.

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These are the views of a columnist who writes for.

(source: Reuters)