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Copper prices lifted by hopes of rate cuts and Chilean supply concerns
The copper price edged up on Wednesday due to the expectation of rate cuts in the United States and ongoing supply concerns after a mine was suspended in Chile, a top copper producer. The price of three-month copper at the London Metal Exchange rose 0.4% to $9,677 a metric tonne by 0930 GMT. It had fallen 0.6% the previous session. Metals are gaining this morning as the dollar weakens and Fed rate cut bets increase, according to EwaManthey, commodities analyst at ING. After the weak U.S. employment data released on Friday, traders have priced in an 86.5% probability of a Fed rate reduction in September. By year's end, traders expect a 56 basis point easing. Investors also keep an eye on developments in Chile, which is the largest copper producer in the world, following the collapse of its El Teniente mine, where six people were killed due to a recent tremor. Codelco, a miner that produced 356,000 tonnes of copper in the past year, must submit four reports to restart underground operations. "It's been a mixed bag." The copper price has held up well this week. The Codelco story was a micro-story that supported the prices," said Yuting Du, research analyst at Marex. Du said that some investors also bet on lower prices by using puts in the options market. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's most traded copper contract fell 0.3%, to 78.280 yuan (10,889.01 dollars) per ton. The market also benefited from the hope that the U.S. and China trade war would ease after President Donald Trump announced they were close to reaching a deal with China, which is the world's largest metals consumer. Other metals include LME aluminium, which rose by 0.6%, to $2.577 per ton. Zinc also rose, up 0.5%, to $2.773, while nickel grew 0.6%, to $15.120. Lead gained 1%, to $1.993.50, and tin increased 0.7%, to $33,485. Click or to see the top news stories about metals, and other topics. ($1 = 7.1889 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting is by Eric Onstad. Editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar).
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The Trump tariffs hurt small Canadian businesses while big oil companies enjoy exemptions
Steve Mallia, a Toronto-based telescope accessory manufacturer, was thriving up until March 2017, when the Trump Administration imposed a 25 percent tariff on orders bound for the U.S. that did not meet the local content requirements under the U.S. Mexico-Canada Agreement. The tariffs, which were imposed shortly after Donald Trump became president of the United States in January, prevented Mallia’s StarField Optics, from competing on its main market as many components used in their products came from China. When we began to sell in the U.S. business was very good. Mallia stated that they were profitable. "As the tariff began to take effect, this disappeared." Mallia founded his business in 2018 and quickly realized that the best way to ensure his company's survival was by making his products comply with USMCA. This is the trade agreement of 2018, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement. The unintended consequences of Trump's attempts to disrupt the global trading system are evident in the difficult decisions that small businesses, like Mallia, must now take. Canada and Mexico are less affected by Trump's trade tariffs because of the existing deal. However, hundreds of small to medium businesses in Canada face a direct impact if they do not comply with USMCA. According to government statistics, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) account for almost 98% of firms in Canada. They also represent over 50% of Canada's economy. Mallia claimed that the production changes made to achieve compliance were costly: six months' worth of lost sales as well as additional expenses for setting up his factory, changing his supply chain, and ramping up production. Mallia was convinced by a cost-benefit study that the money spent on StarField had been well worth it. He estimates that the changes will enable him to gain access to a market which, until October, had accounted for 60% of StarField’s sales. Mallia began the transition long before Trump raised tariffs from 25% to 35% on Canadian goods that did not comply with the Free Trade Agreement. Canada's auto, steel and aluminum sectors are especially hard hit by separate tariffs ranging from 25% to 50%. USMCA will be renegotiated next year, adding to the uncertainty. StarField, for example, must demonstrate that the majority of its products are produced in the U.S. or Canada or that it has significantly altered an imported product from one of these three countries. If you don't comply with the deal, it could cost you or prevent access to Canada, the largest economy in the world. Clifford Sosnow is a partner at Fasken and the chair of its international trade and investments group. OIL EXPORTS DUTABLE FREE Census Bureau data showed that in June, 92% of Canadian exports were duty-free because they were exempt. This figure is skewed, however, by Canada's largest export, oil and gas, which entered the U.S. tariff-free in June. In June, the total tariff-free Canadian imports to the U.S. fell six percentage points on an annual basis. They went from 95% to 89%. Mallia's and other smaller companies do not have the resources that oil producers or exporters of larger firms like Mallia’s do to ensure USMCA conformity. An analysis of U.S. Census Bureau statistics released on Tuesday revealed that the amount of Canadian exports officially compliant with USMCA jumped 20 percentage points to 56% in April, but has remained virtually unchanged since then. Oil, which represents close to one-third of Canada's exports, adapted quickly. USMCA compliance rose to 84% by June, from 25% during the same period last year. Census Bureau data show that when you add all the other free-trade provisions, such as goods sent directly to free-trade zones or bilateral free-trade agreements, over 99% of Canadian exports of oil enter the U.S. tax free. Outside of the oil and natural gas sector, however, compliance only increased by three percentage points, to 45%, in June, from 42%, the same month the previous year. This suggests that companies are struggling with USMCA regulations to avoid tariffs. Bank of Canada estimates that in the next two to three years, 95% of Canadian exports will be USMCA compliant. However, lawyers and export consultants claim the compliance rate increase from the current level is not likely to happen quickly. Census data from the United States shows that exporters of meat, vegetables and cereals as well as chemicals, furniture and live animals are among those who struggle to earn exemptions and comply with this trade agreement. Sosnow, from Fasken, explained that for many smaller businesses, compliance means changing supply chains created decades ago, hiring a legal advisor and documenting the production cycle over months, or even years. Barry Appleton, professor at New York Law School, and international trade expert, says he expects that more Canadian companies will comply, but at a very slow pace and with a high cost, which they will ultimately pass on to their customers. He said, "The low hanging fruit has already been picked." Mallia wants to increase sales in Europe and Australia but knows that he can't ignore the U.S. He has resigned himself to the high price of shipping again duty-free. He said, "At the very end, they are the largest economy in the entire world. They're right there." You'd be foolish to ignore that.
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German cabinet approves bill for carbon storage infrastructure
The German cabinet approved Wednesday reforms that will accelerate the development and deployment of infrastructure to capture carbon dioxide. Berlin is aiming to be carbon neutral by 2045, while maintaining its difficult-to-decarbonise sectors. Carbon capture and Storage (CCS) is the process of removing carbon dioxide from the air that has been produced by industrial processes. It can also capture it at the source and store it underground. If individual federal states permit it, industries that are difficult to decarbonise like cement and lime production or gas power plants can store CO2 in the oceans, beneath the seabed, or on land. The bill will simplify the planning and approval process by classifying the construction and operation CO2 storage and pipelines in "overriding public interests" and simplifying the classification of the projects. The previous German government tried to promote CCS but was unable to pass any legislation before its collapse in November. The draft that was approved by the German government on Wednesday is much more ambitious. The bill allows existing natural gas pipelines to be converted or adapted to carry carbon dioxide in place of natural gas, reducing the need for new pipelines. The government could take private land and compensate the owner for the construction of CO2 pipelines. Germany's part of the North Sea has a CO2 storage capability of between 1.5 billion and 8.3 billion tonnes. This could be deposited up to 20 millions tons per year. (Reporting and editing by Madeline Chambers, Holger Hansen and Riham Alkousaa)
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In overnight raids, gunmen kill 60 villagers and abduct 60 more in northern Nigeria
Witnesses said that gunmen kidnapped at least 45 women, children and teenagers in a raid overnight on five villages located in northwest Nigeria. This is the second such mass kidnapping to occur in this area in recent days. Shehu Musa told Shehu Musa by phone on late Tuesday that the attackers had returned to Sabongarin Damri after a raid on nearby villages, including Sade and Tungar Tsalle. They also raided Tungar Sodangi, Tungar Musa Dogo and Tungar Tsalle. This incident was a follow-up to a separate mass kidnapping in Sabongarin Damri in Zamfara State on Saturday, where 70 people were abducted. Musa stated that "the attackers invaded communities and kidnapped not less than 45 people in five neighboring villages which are located less than a half-kilometre apart." In the last few years, armed groups, also known as "bandits" in Nigerian dialects have murdered hundreds of people and kidnapped thousands throughout the northwest. They hold hostages for long periods of time, and demand ransoms to release them. The security forces killed three assailants in the attack on Monday, but they were unable stop the bandits fleeing and stealing cattle. The number of civilian casualties was not confirmed, but there were reports. Hassan Dauda is a resident from Tungar Tsalle. "They mainly kidnapped children and women after killing some people," he said. "As I speak to you, many residents are fleeing the community out of fear." Separately Boko Haram militants also attacked the remote Kennari Village, located in the Damasak region of northeastern Borno State, on Monday. They abducted at least 15 people, and killed one, according to the security report. Modu Bukar said that the attackers killed the village chief and demanded 30 million naira (19,650 dollars) in ransom to release the captives. $1 = 1,526,4000 naira (Reporting from Ahmed Kingimi in Maiduguri and writing by Elisha Gbogbo).
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France fights the largest wildfire this year and one person is killed
Local authorities reported that firefighters were fighting in the south of France on Wednesday against the biggest wildfire to have occurred this year. One person died in the village of Saint-Laurent-de-la-Cabrerisse, and one person from the same village was missing, the Aude prefecture said. At least 25 homes have been destroyed by the fire. There are many roads closed in the area. Prefecture officials said that the fire is spreading "very rapidly" and nearly 2,000 firefighters are trying to control it. It said that around 2,500 households were without power in the area. Firefighter Eric Brocardi, a spokesman for RTL radio said that the fire spread at 5.5 km/h (3.4 miles per hour). According to BFM TV's local firefighting chief Christophe Magny, the fire has already burned through 13,000 acres, making it one of the largest wildfires in the country. The affected area is larger than the size of Paris. Later in the day, Francois Bayrou, the Prime Minister of France will visit the scene. Scientists claim that the Mediterranean region is at a high risk for wildfires because of its hotter and drier summers. Fires can spread quickly and out of control in the Mediterranean region due to strong winds and abundant dry vegetation. Reporting by Manon C. Cruz, Charlotte Van Campenhout Michel Rose, and Sudip K. Gupta. Writing by Ingrid Melander. Editing by Tom Hogue, Alison Williams, and Alison Williams.
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Zelenskiy: Russia struck gas facility in Odesa Region to undermine winter preparations
Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, said that Russia had struck a gas plant in Odesa, a southern region of Ukraine, undermining winter preparations. He claimed that the Orlovka Interconnector, which is the route through which Ukraine receives its gas via Transbalkan, was attacked by terrorists in the village Novosilske, near the border with Romania. Zelenskiy, a Russian energy expert, said that the move was "absolutely cynical" and a deliberate attack on our heating preparations. Russia has not yet commented on the incident. Since a series devastating Russian missile attacks this year that significantly reduced the domestic gas production, Ukraine has been facing a severe gas shortage. Russia has denied that it targets civilians ever since its invasion of Ukraine began more than three year ago. However, they say infrastructure like energy systems is a legitimate target because they aid Ukraine's war efforts. On Wednesday morning, the governor for the southern Odesa Region reported that an attack had been made on the gas infrastructure, including the main pipeline. He said work was underway to remove the gas from the pipeline. Ukrainian officials have not said if the interconnector is damaged or if gas will continue to be pump. Orlovka was to receive 0.4 million cubic meters of gas on Wednesday, according to Ukrainian transit operator. Ukraine announced last month that it would significantly increase its gas imports, mainly from SOCAR Energy in Azerbaijan. Gas can be delivered to Ukraine via the Transbalkan route, which connects Greece with Bulgaria and Romania. Kyiv called the route "extremely significant" as it allows access to gas from Greek, Turkish and Azerbaijani LNG terminals and pipeline gas from Romania and Azerbaijan. It could also provide access to offshore gas in Bulgaria. (Reporting and editing by Toby Chopra, Alex Richardson, and Pavel Polityuk)
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Iron ore prices fall as investors focus on coking coal
Iron ore futures fell on Wednesday as investors shifted their focus from iron ore to coking coal due to concerns about the demand for iron ore in China, its largest consumer. As of 0712 GMT, the benchmark September iron ore traded on Singapore Exchange fell 0.7% to $100.75 per metric ton. The daytime trading price of the most traded September iron ore contract at China's Dalian Commodity Exchange was 794.5 Yuan ($110.52) per ton, down by 0.06%. Cao Ying is a Beijing analyst with broker SDIC Futures. She said that the buying in the spot market has been weak because mills are hesitant to stockpile raw materials in anticipation of the upcoming major event in September. This is dragging down futures prices. The big event is a ceremony in Beijing on September 3, commemorating the 80th Anniversary of the End of World War Two. Chinese steelmakers, particularly those in the north, often restrict production in advance of major events in order to maintain air quality in Beijing. Cao, from SDIC, added that "Speculative sentiment" is very low as capital has poured into the volatile coal market. Iron ore open interest in Dalian dropped by 4.2% on Tuesday compared to the previous day, while Dalian coking coal saw a 13.7% increase. Open interest is the number of option contracts that have not yet been settled between buyers or sellers. It's a measure for investors' participation on a particular market. Three analysts and traders have said that they are now focusing on trading coking coal. Analysts said that the price of coking coal increased by 6.45%. This was due to fears about a possible contraction in supply, amid more stringent safety inspections for coal mines, and government investigations for reducing excess production. The price fluctuations of coking coal have attracted more capital and investors, which has in turn increased the volatility, said Zhou Tao analyst at Galaxy Futures. Coke rose by 1.95%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has seen a rise in most steel benchmarks. Rebar gained 0.75%; hot-rolled coil grew 0.41%; wire rod climbed 0.38%, while stainless steel fell 0.12%. ($1 = 7,1889 Chinese Yuan) (Reporting and editing by Amy Lv, Lewis Jackson)
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Two people killed and 10 injured in Zaporizhzhia by Russian strikes, says regional governor
Ivan Fedorov, the governor of Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, said that Russian attacks in the region killed two people, and injured 10, including four children. Fedorov reported that Russian forces launched 567 attacks in 16 settlements of the region over the course of 24 hours, from Wednesday morning to the next day. Zaporizhzhia was on the frontlines of the war Russia launched in February 2022 against its smaller neighbor. Fedorov, a Telegram user, said that nine buildings had been damaged by the strikes in the Zaporizhzhia district. Zaporizhzhia is the administrative center of the region. Fedorov stated that "Emergency Services continue to respond" on the ground. The report could not be independently verified. Russia has not yet responded. Both sides deny that they have targeted civilians when attacking each other's territories. The vast majority of the civilians killed in the conflict are Ukrainian. (Reporting and editing by Saad sayeed in Melbourne, Lidia Kelly from Melbourne)
The dollar is struggling to find direction
The dollar was unable to gain any ground on Wednesday due to growing Federal Reserve expectations of rate cuts. Investors were looking at weak U.S. economic data and warnings from corporations about the impact of tariffs.
The EUROSTOXX futures are up 0.5%, indicating that European stocks will open higher. Novo Nordisk, a maker of wegovy, reported a second-quarter growth in sales of 18%. This was below the initial expectations by analysts.
Nasdaq and S&P futures both rose 0.4% after a dip. After the bell, shares of AI chip maker Advanced Micro Devices fell 6.6% on disappointing data center revenue.
Analysts at BlackRock Investment Institute said: "We see risky assets as a tug of war between strong U.S. earnings, fueled by the artificial-intelligence (AI) theme and tariffs that hurt growth but raise inflation."
We remain overweight U.S. stock but become more granular in assessing the impact of tariffs.
Overnight, U.S. stock prices finished lower following the unexpected stagnation of services sector activity in July. Input costs and employment have risen by nearly three years. This highlights the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.
Tariffs are beginning to impact U.S. earnings, even though they were generally positive in the second quarter.
Taco Bell's parent company Yum Brands missed its expectations due to steep trade duties that impacted consumer spending. Caterpillar also warned of a cost of up to $1.5 Billion this year from U.S. Tariffs.
In Asia, MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan fell by 0.1% while Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.6%. Australia's resource shares rose by 0.8%.
The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong and the blue chips of China both rose by 0.1%.
Trump said on Tuesday that he would announce tariffs for semiconductors and chips within the next few weeks. The U.S. will initially impose a'small tariff' on pharmaceutical imports, before it increases it significantly in the following year or two.
He said that the U.S. and China were close to a deal on trade, and if one was reached he would be meeting his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping by the end of the calendar year. He threatened to increase tariffs on Indian goods over their Russian oil purchases.
The Reserve Bank of India held its key interest rate at 5.50%, as expected, on Wednesday. However, the chances of another reduction have increased after the U.S. imposed steep tariffs on Indian imports last week.
On the currency markets, after a disappointing jobs report last Friday that caused markets to price in an almost certain chance of a Fed rate cut in September, the dollar has stabilized.
The dollar index (which measures the U.S. Dollar against six counterparts) was unchanged at 98.73 this week, after Friday's fall of 1.4%.
FedWatch from the CME shows that Fed funds futures indicate a 94% probability of a rate reduction next month. At least two cuts are priced in this year.
Investors await Trump's choice to fill the upcoming vacancy at the Fed Board of Governors. Trump announced that a decision would be made shortly, but ruled out Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is currently the Fed Board of Governors' chief and whose tenure ends in May 2026.
Treasury yields rose after a $58 Billion auction of 3-year notes failed, but they remained near their multi-month lows. This week, the market will see more supply with $42 billion of 10-year notes and $25 billion of 30-year bonds.
The yields on two-year Treasury bonds rose by 2 basis points, to 3.7323%. They had risen by 3.5 basis points overnight. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year bond yields increased 3 bps, to 4.2217% after remaining unchanged overnight.
Oil prices have risen on commodity markets after four consecutive sessions of declines. U.S. crude oil rose 0.6% to $65.57 a barrel while Brent crude was up 0.6% at $68.07 a barrel.
Trump said Tuesday that he would decide whether or not to sanction countries who purchase Russian oil following a scheduled meeting with Russian officials on Wednesday.
The spot gold price fell 0.3%, to $3.370 per ounce.
(source: Reuters)