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Wall Street drops, and oil prices fall to 5-week lows

Wall Street indexes declined on Tuesday, as investors considered tariff concerns and weaker-than-expected U.S. data. Equities in Europe and Asia made gains. The U.S. service sector activity was flat in July, with no change in orders or employment and little improvement in the labor market. This is a sign of the uncertainty surrounding the tariff policy of President Donald Trump.

U.S. Treasury rates were mostly higher but lost some gains following data showing a slowdown in the services sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.14% to 42,111.74. The S&P 500 lost 0.49% at 6,299.19. And the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.65% at 20,916.55.

Investors digested comments on tariffs made by several companies including Caterpillar, which warned that a $1.5 billion hit could be expected in 2025.

Investors increased their bets that the Federal Reserve will act to support the world's biggest economy. Gold prices rose, but oil prices fell on the back of rising OPEC+ supplies and concerns about weakening global demand.

U.S. stocks rallied Monday on the back of generally positive earnings and increased bets that the Fed will cut rates in September after last week's disappointing jobs report. The pan-European STOXX 600 Index edged up by 0.15%. Most regional bourses traded higher as well, echoing the strength in Asia, where MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed at 0.77%. Diageo jumped 4.9% following its forecast of flat sales in 2026 despite U.S. Tariffs.

Amelie Derambure is a senior portfolio manager of Amundi. She said that the removal of uncertainty was one factor helping European markets. Even though the tariff rate may be higher than what European politicians or market participants would have expected.

The question is: Is bad news bad (economy slowing) or is it good (Fed reducing rates)? Mohit Kumar, a Jefferies strategist, said that the answer depends on whether or not bad data is being reported and what is priced in.

Trump stated that the United States will impose a "small" tariff on pharmaceutical imports, before increasing it to 150% in 18 months and then to 250% to increase domestic production. The dollar index (which measures the greenback versus a basket currencies, including the yen, the euro and others) rose by 0.15% to reach 98.78. The euro rose 0.02% to $1.1572.

CME Fedwatch says that the odds of a rate cut in September are now at 94%. This is up from 63% on July 28. The market participants expect at least two quarter point cuts before the end of the year. The yield on the 2-year bond, which moves typically in line with expectations of interest rates for the Federal Reserve (Fed), rose 3.9 basis point to 3.72% from 3.681% at late Monday. The news that Trump may fill a Fed governorship early has added to concerns about the politicization interest rate policy. Trump threatened again to increase tariffs on Indian goods above the 25% level announced by him last month because of its Russian oil purchases. New Delhi, however, called this attack "unjustified", and promised to protect its own economic interests.

The strategists of ING said that it is still unclear whether the primary goal of the secondary sanctions against India for its financing of Russia will be achieved. This move could be an increased U.S. pressure on India, to allow agricultural imports into its economy or to commit to buying U.S. Energy instead. The oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive day. Both benchmarks settled at their lowest levels in five weeks, as concerns about economic growth and oversupply grew.

Brent crude futures ended 1.63% lower at $67.64 per barrel while U.S. crude closed 1.7% lower at $65.16.

Investors are still waiting for results from Walt Disney and Caterpillar this week. The data released on Tuesday revealed that the eurozone's business activity grew slightly faster in July than it did in June but was still sluggish. Separate UK data showed that British companies recorded the largest decline in new orders for almost three years and cut staff by more than half in just six months. The data from Asia's largest economies shows resilience in the service sector. S&P Global's final services purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which measures the performance of the service sector in Japan, grew to 53.6 from 51.7 in the previous month. This was the largest increase since February. China's service sector expanded last month at the fastest rate in over a year. Gold prices in the spot market rose by 0.19%, to $3,379.12 per ounce. U.S. futures gold settled 0.2% higher, at $3,434.70.

(source: Reuters)