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The weekly copper price is up on the back of mine supply concerns and China demand
Copper prices were on track to gain a weekly % of?1.5% this Friday. This was due to concerns about mine supply disruptions and signs of active demand from?China, the top consumer. By 0948 GMT, the benchmark three-month price of copper at the London Metal Exchange had risen by 1.2% to $14,473.50 per metric tonne. Yangshan Copper Premium This week, the price of copper in China reached its highest level in four years, after the country returned from its week-long vacation. The Shanghai Futures Exchange monitors copper inventories in warehouses. The end-of-week stock level was 58,744 tonnes, an increase of 20,000 tons over the previous week. Exchange data revealed that copper stocks at the LME registered warehouses fell to a six-week-low of 233.025 tons, after daily outflows totaling 4,700?tons. This was mainly due to warehouses in Taiwan and Hong Kong. Since 2025, copper prices have been supported by the constant transfers of metal to Comex warehouses, especially in the last six months. This is due to uncertainty about potential US import tariffs for refined copper. Comex inventories are at a record high of 711 609 tons. Cash copper contracts ended Thursday with a $97 per ton premium over the three-month contract. Morgan Stanley stated in a report that "any slowdown in US stocks could make the markets feel looser. But China's demand has been resilient, and supply is experiencing significant disruptions." The union representing Antofagasta’s?Centinela mine in Chile has said that the strike will?begin affecting output in November. Antofagasta initially downplayed its impact, but this situation has increased the risk of disruptions at other mines. Aluminium and lead, among other LME metals, rose by 1.1% each to $3,085 a ton and $1,880 per ton. Zinc rose 1.7% to $3.781.50. Tin increased 2.1% to $52,305. Nickel climbed 1.2%, to $15,730.
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AI-related companies drive the majority of third-quarter US earnings increases
US companies will likely deliver a third-quarter earnings surge, and AI-related players, like the stock market rally, are driving most of these gains. Investors are excited about the hyper-growth of AI companies, but they are also concerned about the future of the share price and how long this trend will continue. According to Tajinder dhillon, LSEG’s head of earnings research and equity, analysts expect S&P500 earnings to increase by 31% in the third quarter. Two-thirds will come from the tech sector, including AI giants Alphabet and Amazon.com, as well as Meta Platforms. The S&P 500 reached a new record this week, ahead of earnings season. This is expected to begin unofficially next?week when banks such as JPMorgan Chase or Goldman Sachs report their results. "It is all AI, and to a lesser degree, energy and material, but this is because of geopolitics,"?Sameer samana, the head of global equity and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. It wouldn't be surprising if 70-80% growth could be attributed tech and AI. The US oil price has risen by roughly 30% during the third quarter due to the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran. Samana pointed out that the?earnings estimates for the third-quarter are among the lowest. Strategists are unsure if the third-quarter growth in earnings can match the explosive growth seen in the second quarter. Most companies beat analyst's estimates and this is likely to continue in the third quarter. LSEG data shows that the S&P 500's earnings grew by 54% in the second quarter, the highest growth since 2021. LSEG data showed that excluding mark-to-market gains from Alphabet and Amazon.com for AI-related investments the growth rate was still about 35%. This is the highest level since 2021. Anthony Saglimbene is the chief market strategist of Ameriprise Financial. He said that investors should be concerned because we're approaching "peak earnings growth" in this cycle. "A lot is this AI trade built on continuing capex spending. Every quarter, as they continue to do so, the hurdle rates and scrutiny get higher." Dhillon, based upon LSEG data, said that earnings for US semiconductor firms, which are among the largest beneficiaries of the AI boom will?have risen by about 136% compared to about 158% during the second quarter. Nick Raich is the CEO of Earnings Scout. Three months ago, we were going 150 miles per hour. Raich stated that the latest reports, including those from Micron Technology, were strong and suggested other companies continue to "reap the benefits." Micron, a chipmaker, forecasted quarterly revenue that was above expectations and said customers had boosted their commitments to its long-term supply agreements up to $32 billion. This week, Google signed a huge power deal with Constellation Energy. Investors will also be paying close attention to the impact of higher interest rates on corporate profits during this earnings season. The US bond yields are rising due to concerns over inflation, high oil prices, and debt problems elsewhere. Samana warned that heavy borrowers such as utilities are at risk.
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Campaign group warns that the new Congress in Brazil poses a threat to environmental legislation
According to a report by the climate advocacy group Observatorio Do?Clima that found almost 70% of elected legislators have no or little interest in environmental issues, Brazil's new Congress will likely pose a greater obstacle to legislation protecting the environment after elections this month. The study examined bills, legislative initiatives, speeches, and public statements made by newly elected and reelected legislators. It concluded that 64 out of 81 senators have demonstrated a "very low" commitment to environmental issues. In the lower chamber, 345 out of 511 legislators were placed in the same category. According to the study, the Liberal Party, which is home to Flavio Bolsonaro (a right-wing senator) who will be facing President Luiz Inacio Lula in a presidential runoff later this month has the lowest environmental credentials of all major parties. Bolsonaro defeated Lula in a first round despite pollsters' predictions, but he didn't get enough votes to prevent a second ballot. The environmental commitment of all 28 senators and lower house members who were elected by the party on Sunday was rated as very low. The study also found that other right-leaning political parties, such as?Novo and Republicanos, Progressistas, and Uniao Brasil showed low support for environmental issues. Observatorio do Clima stated that environmental advocates may face a more 'challenging' political landscape if Bolsonaro, whose previous?comments about climate change caused concern, is elected President. I contacted the parties named but did not receive a response. The group said that proposals to weaken environmental protections, such as measures to reduce protected lands, allow mining on Indigenous land, and ease licensing requirements for environmental matters, could gain "traction" under the new Congress. Suely Araujo is the public policy coordinator for the group. She said, "This image shows four years of hard work by those who are focused on climate and environment issues."
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Trump's comment that Iran can 'take out Los Angeles' was misinterpreted
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that comments he made about Iran being able to "take out" California cities were misinterpreted. He was referring instead to the need for people to tolerate higher gasoline prices. Trump made these remarks on Monday at a Nebraska political rally, where he talked about the economic sacrifices of Americans during World War II. "Remember that the 'war' is artificial, it costs a lot, but it's worth it," he said. "It is a small price to pay in order to keep the world and our country safe. They could take out an entire city. Let's?take Los Angeles out, let's?take San Diego out. It's a small price to pay and it will be over very soon." California's Democratic Leaders and some Republican colleagues quickly condemned the remarks. Trump stated in a Truth Social posting on Thursday that "a temporary increase in Gasoline prices is a small price to be paid for Iran not having a nuclear weapon." "If you want to see a huge price, can you imagine what would happen if they bombed San Diego and/or Los Angeles?" He continued by saying he loved both cities. Trump has dismissed concerns about cost of living stemming the Iran conflict in the past.
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US to rescind methane policy against oil and gas industry
The US Environmental Protection Agency announced on Wednesday that it would be scrapping the Biden-era regulation aimed at curbing large leaks of'methane' from oil and gas operations. The move is part a broader effort by the Trump administration to reduce regulations, which it claims burden US businesses in its quest to increase fossil fuel production. "Americans should be able to afford heating their homes during the winter and filling up their cars to drive to work." The people who produce the energy cannot?do this when they are burdened by unnecessary burdens," EPA Administator Lee Zeldin stated in a press release after announcing the decision at a meeting with representatives of the oil and gas industries in New Mexico. The "super emitter program" of the EPA requires that companies react when third parties use remote sensing to report suspected methane leaks. After taking office in 2017, the Trump administration?delayed implementing this policy until next. EPA claimed that its proposal to rescind this?rule could save $45 billion a yearly. The oil and gas industry, which is a major source of methane, is responsible for the second largest?cause?of climate change?after carbon dioxide. Environmental groups have criticized the move. In a statement, Mahyar Sorour of Sierra Club's Beyond Fossil Fuels said: "This giveaway is foolish and shortsighted. It reveals to whom the Trump administration works - its political donors."
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US seizes $3 Million in fuel shipments from Cuba as crackdown continue
The US announced on Wednesday that it had seized 90 separate shipments of biodiesel bound to Cuba, worth nearly $3 million. This is the second time this week US authorities have announced the seizure "illegal" fuel en route to Cuba. The Trump administration is continuing to choke off Cuba's energy industry, only allowing small amounts of fuel to be shipped to the private sector on the island in an effort to undercut the Cuban government. Jose Figueroa, Special Agent in Charge of Homeland Security Miami, told Miami reporters on Wednesday that the seized cargo was destined for Enetec, an Enetec-based state-owned fuel firm sanctioned earlier this year by the US. The authorities said that they intercepted fuel shipments at Port Everglades in south Florida and Houston before they left the US. Homeland Security reported that more than 600,000 gallons were seized. Figueroa stated that "an effort of this magnitude to undermine US sanction is not an accident." These actions are aimed at shipments that could benefit the Cuban government through a state controlled entity. Anyone who attempts to undermine US laws to fund, facilitate or profit from such an effort should be put on notice. Cuba's government didn't?comment immediately on the fuel seizure. Cuba's communist-run government has called the Trump administration's blockade of fuel on Cuba "economic war" and "illegal". The blockade has exacerbated the ongoing problems of blackouts, shortages of water and inflation on the island, pushing it towards a humanitarian catastrophe. US President Donald Trump stated openly that his goal is to overthrow Cuba's government with the?blockade & sanctions. Last week, the US Coast Guard announced that they had intercepted in September a large container vessel carrying fuel bound for Cuba. The Coast Guard said that the ship was attempting to evade authorities, and had large amounts of fuel hidden within its ballast tanks. In either case, the US has not disclosed the identities of the exporters.
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Russia claims that Ukraine has struck two nuclear facilities at Zaporizhzhia
The head of Russia's state nuclear corporation said that despite the fact that Ukrainian drones had attacked two facilities at Zaporizhzhia, a Russian-held nuclear power plant in southeast Ukraine, there was no danger to nuclear safety. Alexei Likhachev said that a driver who was delivering food to plant workers had been killed by the drone attack. Likhachev said that a laboratory and a plant for the processing of radioactive waste were targeted. Ukraine has yet to comment on the incident. The plant's management announced on?Saturday that Ukrainian shelling in recent weeks has damaged the external power supply equipment. Electricity is currently provided by emergency diesel generators. The plant does not produce electricity, but it needs two external links for power to cool nuclear fuel. In the first few weeks of the war, which began with Moscow's invasion of its smaller neighbor in February 2022, Russia captured the?plant - Europe's biggest with six reactors. Since then, Moscow and Kyiv accuse each other regularly of military actions that compromise nuclear safety. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog has repeatedly taken action to ensure a ceasefire surrounding the plant so that repairs could be made to the lines connecting the facility to the main grid. UN monitors are at the Zaporizhzhia and three other plants in Ukraine. Maria Zakharova of the Russian Foreign Ministry wrote on her ministry's website that the West was enabling Ukrainian aggressions by not publicly condemning them. Zakharova wrote that "Kyiv has intensified its shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant because Western countries have not responded appropriately to these actions, effectively facilitating new assaults." "Such an attitude toward strikes by the Ukrainian military shows the true 'value' of statements made by representatives of these nations about nuclear and physical safety at international forums."
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The top cases in the US Supreme Court docket
US Supreme Court will hear a number of important cases in its new term, which begins Monday. These include issues like President Donald Trump's Immigration Policies, the ban on assault-style rifles, the financial responsibility of Big Oil for climate change and Republican-backed voting restriction. This is a list of some of the cases that are being argued in the current term. The term runs until the end of June. Big Oil Climate Suit ExxonMobil, Suncor Energy and Boulder officials argued on October 5, attempting to "thwart" a lawsuit filed by Boulder officials. The Justices grappled with the complex question of whether local governments should be allowed to hold oil companies responsible for harms caused by climate change. After Colorado's highest court allowed Boulder to sue them for violating state laws and seeking unspecified damages, the companies filed an appeal. Trump's administration supported the companies. The justices expressed concerns over unduly restricting the power of states to pursue litigation related to climate change, and the potential for chaos if local government across the nation were allowed to sue these corporations. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. TRUMP'S MANDATORY DETENTION OF IMMIGRANTS The court will determine the legality Trump's policy, which subjects millions of illegal immigrants living in the US to mandatory detention while deportation proceedings are underway. Trump's policy of mass deportation includes this policy. The Supreme Court heard the Trump administration appeal of a lower-court ruling that ruled against the policy, in a case concerning a Brazilian citizen. The US administration has abandoned its long-standing interpretation of federal laws that allowed immigrants living in the US to be released under bond until their cases were heard in immigration court. Dates for the arguments have not been set yet. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. DEPORTATIONS TO A THIRD COUNTRY BY TRUMP In December, the justices will hear arguments over the Trump administration’s policy to deport migrants to "third countries", or other nations than their home country. They won't give them the opportunity to demonstrate the harms that they might face. On September 29, the court allowed the Trump administration to continue its policy, suspending a federal judge’s ruling that deporting migrants to third-country countries was illegal. Human rights groups claim that more than 25,000 migrants were deported under this policy to 29 different countries. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. Ban on assault-style rifles On December 2, the justices will hear arguments in a challenge against state prohibitions of 'assault style rifles. This case involves a weapon type that is often associated with mass killings. The lower courts in Cook County Illinois and Connecticut upheld the bans on powerful semiautomatic weapons such as AR-15s. Lower courts rejected arguments that these measures violated the US Constitution's Second Amendment rights to "keep and bear arms." Gun rights groups, as well as other opponents, have argued that Supreme Court precedents regarding the Second Amendment protect firearms in "common usage." The end of June is the expected date for a ruling. Voting Rights On December 8, the justices will hear arguments in a Republican led bid to reinstate voter restrictions in Arizona. This would require proof of citizenship for all voter registrants, and purge voter lists in Arizona from alleged non-US citizen voters. Republicans appealed a lower court's decision to stop certain provisions of Arizona law for violating federal voting registration laws. The Trump administration has supported key aspects of the appeal. The Arizona measure, according to critics, adds additional mandates for voting which unfairly targets Latinos and Native American voters. These groups tend to support Democratic candidates. The ruling is expected to be made by the end of June. LGBT RIGHTS On November 3, the justices will hear arguments in an appeal by the Archdiocese of Denver, and other Catholic entities, to be exempted of a Colorado program that funds preschools' nondiscrimination requirements. A lower court ruled that Colorado's program didn't violate the First Amendment rights of the Catholic plaintiffs. State funds are provided for preschools. The Catholic plaintiffs objected that the state required schools receiving funding through the program to give all children an "equal chance" to enroll in pre-school, regardless of certain characteristics. This included the sexual orientation of students and their families. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. EPIC GAMES SUE AGAINST Apple Apple will try to avoid being found in contempt by the justices in its legal battle with Epic Games, the maker of "Fortnite". The iPhone maker had been found to be in violation of an order from a court ordering sweeping changes in its lucrative App Store as part the antitrust litigation. Apple appealed the ruling of a lower court that upheld a federal judge's decision in Oakland, California finding Apple in contempt for Epic's lawsuit against App Store fees. Dates for the arguments have not yet been announced. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June. PEPSICO TRADEMARK CASE The court will hear arguments regarding a claim by Rise Brewing, a maker of canned coffees, to hold PepsiCo responsible for an alleged trademark violation involving Pepsi’s morning energy beverage "Mtn Dew Rise." Rise Brewing appealed the ruling of a lower court that rejected the company's claim the name "Mtn Dew Rise," infringes on its trademarks, and confuses customers with its coffee brand. No date has been set for the arguments. The ruling is expected to be made by the end June.
AI data centers force 'peaker power' plants to be brought back into service
The demand for electricity from AI data centers is reviving peaker power plants
Peakers emit more pollutants than power plants.
The majority of power plants are located in minority and low-income communities
By Laila Kearney
Dec 23, CHICAGO -
A 60s oil-fired plant rises from an industrial site behind Dvorak Park in Chicago's working class Pilsen district. In warmer weather, the park is crowded with children playing on its colorful playground or zooming down slides.
Next year, the eight-unit Fisk Power Plant owned by Houston's NRG Energy is scheduled to be retired. The next step was artificial intelligence.
As electricity demand from data centers outstripped existing supply, prices shot up on the country's largest power market – PJM Interconnection – alarming about power shortages and making Fisk & other plants like them suddenly profitable.
Matt Pistner said that NRG's senior vice president for generation, Matt Pistner, retracted the retirement notice from eight Fisk power-generating units.
Fisk is one of a growing number "peaker" units that are being used to power the U.S.'s electrical grid, with the demand for artificial intelligence from Big Tech data centers.
Peakers are designed to operate in short bursts when electricity demand spikes. They help prevent blackouts because they can provide power at a moment’s notice. These fossil-fuelled facilities, which are often decades old, emit more pollution and produce more electricity when they're running.
The analysis of the filings at the largest power grid in the country shows that 60% of them are for renewable energy sources.
PJM has postponed, or even cancelled, plans to retire oil and gas power plants. The majority of plants that avoided shutdowns were peaker units.
The Fisk Peakers were built at the site of an old coal-fired power station which operated for more than a century. The coal plant closed in more than a ten-year period after years of opposition from local residents. However, eight peaking units powered by petroleum oil still operate at the site.
"We were very disappointed when we learned that the coal station was closing, but still producing power at the site," said Jerry Mead Lucero, a lifelong advocate of the closure of Fisk coal, who lived most of his adult years in Pilsen.
Pollution dropped after the coal plant closed, but didn't disappear. According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), sulfur dioxide levels at the site ranged between 2 and 25 tons of sulfur dioxide per year, when the peaker plant, which had eight units, occasionally fired up to feed the grid.
"That is not a small amount, considering the chimneys and houses nearby," said Brian Urbaszewski. He's Director of Environmental Health Programs for Respiratory Health Association in Illinois, a nonprofit organization that helps people with respiratory diseases.
DIRTY POWER
According to research by the federal and academic authorities, peakers are often not equipped with pollution controls such as mercury scrubbers that remove toxic chemicals from power plant emissions and filters for particulates.
Environmentalists say that some chimneys or smokestacks are lower, which means pollution is more localized.
The U.S. administration of Donald Trump may be more aggressive in extending the life of peakers. It has said that it is exploring all options, including peaker plants, emergency systems and other ways to meet massively increased electricity demand.
In an interview with Chris Wright in September, the U.S. Energy secretary said that there are many peaker plants which could be operated more often. He added that air quality regulations had prevented more from being run more frequently. The biggest targets today are the spare capacity in the grid.
According to a U.S. Government Accountability Office report, peaker plants produce about 3% of?country's electricity, but they are capable of producing 19%.
If we tap into this spare capacity, it could lead to more harmful emissions being released into neighborhoods which are already overburdened by environmental hazards.
According to research by the federal government and academics, the majority of the country's peaker plants are located in communities of color with low income. This means that prolonging the life of the plants could cause more pollution to be emitted into the air.
In a 2022 study, residents of "redlined" U.S. areas, who were denied financial services like mortgages because they were primarily Black or immigrants, were 53% more inclined to have a peaker built near them since 2000, compared with those in non-redlined communities.
The study was led by UCLA Professor of Environmental Health Sciences?Lara Cushing.
The Grid is being strained by the power demands
The majority of peaker plants in the United States were built in two periods of rapid growth in energy demand: at the beginning of the 20th century, when electrical appliances became commonplace in homes; and then again in the early 2000s as computers and the economy began to grow. After the energy-sucking devices and infrastructure improved, U.S. demand for power decreased and many fossil-fired plants closed.
Solar and wind farms began to provide more energy. These only work when the sun shines and the wind blows.
The U.S. Congress directed the Government Accountability Office to investigate the use of peaker plant and their impact on American communities. Environmental justice groups urged the U.S. Congress to do so.
According to the study, peaker natural gas plants emit 1.6 more sulfur dioxide per unit of electricity generated on a median base compared with non-peaker plants.
Fisk is a part of PJM Interconnection - the largest electrical grid in the United States. It spans 13 states, and has the highest concentration of data centres anywhere on the planet. The demand from AI data centres is threatening the grid's reserves and is already driving prices up.
The prices paid by PJM power suppliers to run plants during times of high demand jumped more than 800% compared to a summer ago. This made peaker power plants more profitable.
Jeff Shields, PJM spokesman, said: "It's clear that the electricity demand in this country is greater than supply –?the market reflects it, and generators respond." "We can't afford to lose our existing generation, while continuing to add new generation in order to meet the needs of the data centers and other heavy loads that power the nation's economy."
According to an analysis of the letters sent by power companies to PJM Interconnection, 23 oil, coal and gas power plants were set to retire in PJM territory in 2025.
The letters show that since January, U.S. energy companies, grid operators, and the federal governments have postponed or cancelled retirements for 13 of these power plants. The letters showed that 11 of the plants which avoided closure were peakers.
The Department of Energy ordered that the 55-year-old "Eddystone", owned by Constellation Energy and located outside of Philadelphia be kept running. PJM requested that the Wagner peaker near Baltimore be kept running while the grid operator coordinated the transmission required for the generator to be removed.
Some of the power plants that were retained were originally built to provide power around-the clock, but were later downgraded so they only run in emergencies.
Last Line of Defense
Fisk's owner NRG Energy believes peakers are vital safeguards for grids that are increasingly needed not only for data centers, but also for electrifying manufacturing and transportation and to avoid blackouts due to winter storms or summer heatwaves.
Fisk Peakers are located in Chicago, so the city does not need to import power in an emergency if outside sources of electricity go down.
Matt Pistner, NRG Energy, said: "They are the shock absorbers and last line of defense for the system." When they are needed, there's nowhere else to turn.
Pistner said that while NRG has power-generating sources ranging from wind and solar to nuclear, oil-fired peaks add an additional layer of security by ensuring fuel can be stored locally.
A NRG spokesperson said separately that "during its run time, the power station consistently operates within federal or state environmental regulations - and we are proud to its record".
Experts in energy say that there are other options to peakers. Transmission lines that are more reliable could be used to transport electricity from areas of the country where there is an excess of power, to those who have a shortage.
Rusco, from the GAO, said that "if we did that, the system could run more efficiently. You would also probably reduce the amount of dependence on peakers."
Clean energy advocates believe that batteries, which are being improved to store power longer, can also replace peaker units.
As AI power demand increases, communities such as Pilsen that have been successful in closing some sources of pollution over the past few years may find it more difficult to combat peaker plants.
John Quigley of the University of Pennsylvania Kleinman Center for Energy Policy said: "It will result in significant cost increases for consumers of electricity and local pollution, and prevent the connection of new clean energy production to the grid."
PJM has said that it will continue to connect renewable energy, nuclear power and gas-fired electricity to the grid, regardless of how long peakers remain on.
Shields stated that "we need to get every megawatt we can right now." He added that deactivating existing plants "ignores the reality."
Northern Illinois has a growing data center market. At least one data centre is already operational in Pilsen, and there are multiple energy-intensive projects being planned for the surrounding areas. T5 Data Centers announced a 20 building campus this year.
Mead Lucero is concerned that the Fisk Peaker Units will continue to exacerbate the environmental problems in his hometown. This includes industrial truck traffic emissions, metal scrappers, and a major road cutting through the area. "You combine all these factors and you have a real problem."
(source: Reuters)