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Beiersdorf says Middle East conflict disrupts Gulf sales, deliveries
Beiersdorf, the maker of Nivea, said that the conflict in the Middle East was disrupting sales and deliveries in key Gulf markets. This highlights how geopolitical tensions continue to impact consumer goods companies in the region. Vincent Warnery, Chief Executive of the company, said that due to the conflict the company was unable to ship some products to Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates. "This is something that impacts not only our costs, but also consumption." We hope the war will end soon so that we can get back to business as usual," he said in a press conference. Beiersdorf warned in April that sales in the Middle East were being adversely affected by conflict. Warnery also said that the company was closely monitoring the oil markets, given the possible impact of higher crude costs on packaging and other input costs. Warnery stated that despite the sharp rise in oil prices following the intensification of the conflict between the United States and Iran, prices have not reached the levels Beiersdorf had predicted. He said that the "good news" was that the sustained increases in oil prices will eventually filter through to the costs of the company because it uses a large amount of plastic packaging. Beiersdorf lowered its full-year outlook on Monday, citing "a difficult market climate and a slower than expected recovery" at its core Nivea product.
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Gold prices fall as markets consider Middle East instability and inflation risks
Gold prices fell on Monday as concerns about inflation and the conflict in the Middle East remained. The markets will also be watching the U.S. Federal Reserve policy direction this week, which is based on a number of employment reports. Spot gold dropped by 0.3% per ounce to $4,029.84 at 10:12 am EDT (1412 GMT) while U.S. gold futures for delivery in August fell 0.5%?to $4.029.00. Gold has been stuck between a range of $4000-$4200 for over a month. Marex analyst Edward Meir stated that the market may be anticipating a rise in inflation in July, when new data is expected to reverse much of the decline in June. Three Fed officials, who dissented at last week's meeting and argued for a rate increase, said on Friday that delaying the higher borrowing costs could keep inflation over the Fed's target of 2%. New York Fed President John Williams stated that the central bank is ready to increase rates if inflation pressures do not ease. Brent futures rose more than 20% in the last month as a result of renewed fighting between Iran and the U.S., and after attacks on tankers near Oman raised security concerns. The expectation that the Fed would keep rates high to combat inflation is exacerbated by higher energy prices, which weighs on gold. Iran said on Monday that there are no ongoing talks with the U.S. and no plans for any meetings. This contradicts President Donald Trump, who had claimed talks would be held as a justification to call off 'attacks. The market participants will closely monitor a series of US jobs reports, including ADP employment report and nonfarm payrolls. South Korea's central banks said that they would buy gold from local producers in order to diversify their sources of supply, and increase their holdings of precious metal. (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Sahal Muhammed) (Reporting by Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Sahal Muhammed)
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US construction spending falls unexpectedly in June
U.S. Construction Spending unexpectedly dropped in June, as higher mortgage rates continued to stifle?homebuilding. Census Bureau of the Commerce Department reported on Monday that construction spending had decreased by 0.1%. The?Construction Spending in?May has been?revised. It was not reported that it had increased by 0.1% but was actually unchanged. Economists surveyed by predicted construction spending to rise 0.2%. In June, construction spending fell 3.2% compared to the same month last year. Spending on private construction projects fell 0.2% last month, but only by 0.1% this month. ?Investment in residential construction dropped 0.3%. The spending on single-family housing fell by 0.6%. In June, it decreased by 3.3% year-over-year. Since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in February, the average rate for the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased by 70 basis points. The average rate reached a record high of 6.66% in the last week according to data provided by mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. In June, spending on multi-family units, which make up a tiny part of the housing market?declined by 0.7%. The?government announced last week that residential investment had rebounded after declining for five consecutive quarters. Renovations are on the rise as higher borrowing costs have depressed housing demand. In June, investment in non-residential structures like power plants and factories increased by?0.1%. Spending on manufacturing projects fell?1.2%. The second quarter saw a contraction in investment in non-residential buildings, marking the 10th consecutive quarterly?decline. After increasing by 0.6% in May, the investment in public construction projects was unchanged. In June, state and local government construction expenditures remained unchanged. The federal government also spent the same amount on construction projects. Lucia Mutikani, Lucia Simao and Paul Simao (Reporting)
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Nigeria's NNPC announces another tender for Cawthorne crude
According to documents obtained by, Nigeria's NNPC, the state-owned oil company, issued a further tender?to.sell a cargo.of its newest.crude oil grade Cawthorne.in September. Cawthorne was exported in March along with other grades recently introduced, such as Nembe, and Utapate. Nigeria is looking to diversify and boost its exports after years of underinvestment and disruptions due to oil theft and operational disruptions. The document states that the Cawthorne shipment will be loaded?on September 22-23 and will consist of 950,000 barrels. NNPC also offers a 950,000 barrel 'cargo of Bonny Light' loading between September 30 and October 1. NNPC has not 'immediately responded to a request for comment. Both cargoes will be sold free-on-board. Bids must be submitted by August 4 at 8 pm, West Africa Time. A preliminary loading program seen by shows that the Bonny 'Light' production stream will load 364,000 barrels of oil per day across 12 cargoes. In recent sessions, sellers of 'West African' grades have begun to increase their offer levels amid increasing supply disruptions in the Middle East. However, trading activity is generally muted while market participants wait for further clarity on the volatile situation at the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea.
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Greek crews continue to fight wildfires northwest of Athens
On Monday, hundreds of Greek firefighters fought a wildfire north of Athens on a fourth-day basis after strong and erratic wind conditions caused it to ravage homes, pine forest and thousands of acres of farmland. This forced emergency evacuations both by land and water. After a midair collision with another helicopter whose crew was still alive, two firefighters on a firefighting chopper crashed and died near the seaside village of Psatha on Sunday. On Monday, more than 400 firefighters were deployed with 21 aircraft near the communities Kandili & Agia Skepi as thick plumes of black smoke &?red fires enveloped lush pine forests. A Greek official from the?fire brigade said that heavy machinery was used to create fire breaks in order to stop wildfires reaching homes. Wildfires have ravaged Europe this summer, following a time of record heatwaves. Scientists say that the conditions were exacerbated due to a rapidly changing climate. France and Spain were particularly hard-hit, though huge fires in those countries abated at the weekend. Greece's fire season was mild by local standards. Three firefighters died in separate incidents in Crete and the Peloponnese last week. The authorities are trying to determine the cause of a mid-air helicopter accident that occurred at low elevation. Aviation accident investigator Faidon Karaiosifidis said that at this point, the only thing they can say is that the formation between the two helicopters wasn't appropriate. Their vertical and horizontal separation as well as their descent rate were inadequate. Wildfires have been reported in the area around Psatha. Locals complain that while vegetation around houses has been cleared, more needs to be done in order to maintain and build fire breaks within the forest. Kostas Kastafados, Deputy Minister for Climate Crisis, told ERT public broadcaster that the strong and erratic wind conditions over the last few days prevented 'water bombers from drawing up seawater. This left ground forces to fight the fires alone. Nikos Lavranos of the Federation of Unions of Fire Service Employees said that the days of operation have "overstretched" a thinly staffed and aged fire service. This is the result of a hiring ban during Greece's debt crisis from 2009-2018. "A firefighter who is useful to his fellow citizens and the society is not an exhaustion firefighter,"? he said. The fire brigade reported that preliminary investigation indicates that sparks from vibrating conductors of a private powerline?transmitting energy from wind turbines caused a fire to break out and travel 25 km (15miles) in Boeotia, a nearby area. A?electrical engineering and a contractor were arrested, and they are being investigated for arson. In recent years, the main cause of wildfires in Greece has been faulty power lines. This was followed by arson and negligence.
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Copper prices rise on the back of falling inventories
On 'Monday, copper prices rose to their highest level in over a week as lower oil prices eased concerns about the economy and demand. The market was also focused on shrinking inventories. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange increased 0.6% to $13,875 per metric ton, after reaching $13,900. This was its highest price since July 22. The drop in oil after U.S. president Donald Trump cancelled a new attack on Iran to?seek a deal?to curb Tehran's nucleonic ambitions also eased concerns about price pressures, according to traders. Britannia Global Markets stated in a report that "the markets are still headline-driven at the start of the week with energy markets as the primary focus." The fundamental picture for copper appears to be supportive. Both the London Metal Exchange and China Metal Exchange have depleted inventories. The copper stocks registered by the?LME have dropped nearly 40% since May, to 244,025 tonnes. This is their lowest level since February. Since February of last year, producers and traders have shipped copper to the United States, after President Donald Trump threatened import duties, creating a premium over LME copper prices. Zinc was up 0.9% to $3,676 per ton, after reaching a record high of $3703.50, a level not seen in four years, on concerns over supply on the LME. Three?large holdings in cash contracts and warrants (#LMEWHC) created large premiums for nearby zinc 'contracts against forwards with longer dates. A large short on zinc futures #LMEFBR> matured this month, which reinforced the trend. The premium or "backwardation" for zinc cash over the three-month ahead The level of smog is at or near the levels last seen in December. LME zinc stock has dropped to 99.285 tons (0#MZNSTXLOC>), down by 25% since mid-June. Other metals saw aluminium gain 0.8%, to $3,210 per ton. Lead fell 0.3%, to $1,871. Tin increased by 0.4%, to $55,500, and nickel dropped 1.3%, to $17 020.
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Oil prices fall after Trump cancels his attack on Iran and seeks deal
Oil prices dropped more than $5 per barrel on Monday as U.S. president Donald Trump held back a new attack against Iran in order to reach a quick agreement with Iran. Iran said no talks were scheduled. Brent crude futures dropped $5.04 or 5.73% to $82.89 at 1218 GMT. They had retraced a portion of their losses after hitting a session low earlier. ?U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil was trading at $78.90 per barrel, down by $5.77 or 6.8%. Both benchmarks saw their largest daily drops in absolute terms and percentages since last Monday. Two contracts increased by more than 20 percent last month, after the U.S. resumed fighting with Iran and several attacks on tankers in the vicinity of Oman raised security concerns and discouraged shippers from entering Gulf to load oil. Iran stated on Monday that there are no ongoing talks with the United States, and no plans for any meetings. This contradicts U.S. president Donald Trump, who had used talks to justify announcing an end to attacks. Can a deal happen? We would expect higher prices in August, given the depletion of global inventories. However, we will also be keeping an eye out for signs of a weakening of demand. According to PVM analyst Tamas Varga, under the current VVV (volatile violent and violent) trading conditions, the chances of making a mistake are high. Shipping data revealed that two tankers laden primarily with Saudi oil, crossed the 'Bab el-Mandeb Strait from the 'Red Sea at the weekend. However, traffic slowed down in the Strait of Hormuz as well as Bab el-Mandeb. Since Saturday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operation has reported three attacks on tankers. On 'Sunday', the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies approved an increase in oil production quota of 188,000?barrels a day starting September. The Iran and Ukraine wars have caused export?disruptions in the Gulf, Russia, and Kazakhstan. This has meant that successive monthly OPEC+ increases over the majority of this year did not translate into more oil on the markets. (additional reporting and editing by Florence Tan, Sam Li and David Holmes).
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Greek crews continue to fight wildfires northwest of Athens
On 'Monday, hundreds of Greek firefighters fought a wildfire north of Athens, for the fourth day, after strong winds and erratic weather conditions caused it to ravage homes, pine trees and thousands of acres of farmland. This forced emergency evacuations on land and by sea. After a midair collision with another helicopter whose crew was still alive, two firefighters on a firefighting chopper crashed and died near the seaside village of Psatha on Sunday. On 'Monday, more than 400 firefighters were deployed with 21 aircraft near the communities Kandili & Agia Skepi as thick plumes of black smoke and red fires enveloped lush pine forests. A Greek fire brigade official revealed that heavy machinery was used to create fire breaks in order to prevent wildfires from reaching homes. Wildfires have ravaged Europe this summer, following a record-breaking period of heatwaves and little rain. Scientists say that the conditions were exacerbated due to a rapidly changing climate. France and Spain were particularly hard-hit, though huge fires in those countries have abated since the weekend. Faulty power lines Greece's fire seasons had been relatively mild compared to local standards. Three?firefighters died in two separate incidents last week on the Peloponnese and Crete. The authorities are working to determine the cause of a mid-air helicopter accident that occurred at a low altitude. Aviation accident investigator Faidon Karaiosifidis said that at this point, the only thing they can say is that the formation between the two helicopters wasn't appropriate. Their vertical and horizontal separation as well as their descent rate were inadequate. Wildfires have been experienced in the area around Psatha. Locals complain that while vegetation around houses has been cleared, more work needs to be done in order to maintain and build fire breaks within the forest. Kostas Kastafados, Deputy Minister for Climate Crisis told ERT that the strong winds and erratic weather conditions over the last few days prevented water bombers from bringing up seawater. This left ground forces to fight the fires alone. Nikos Lavranos of the Federation of Unions of Fire Service Employees said that days of operations had overstretched an ageing and thinly-staffed fire service. This was the result of a hiring ban during Greece's debt crisis from 2009-2018. He said that a firefighter who was useful to his fellow citizens and the society would be a "rested firefighter" rather than an "exhausted firefighter". The fire brigade said that preliminary investigation indicates that the cause of a fire in Boeotia that spread 25 km (15miles) last week was a spark from vibrating conductors that were on a private power line transmitting electricity from the wind turbines. A contractor and an electrical engineer have been arrested, and they are being investigated for arson. In recent years, the main cause of wildfires in Greece has been faulty power lines. This was followed by arson and negligence.
McGeever: Higher oil prices cloud Wall Street's optimistic earnings outlook
Even if the Iran War ends soon, U.S. oil prices will be structurally higher this year. Investors may have to reconsider their optimistic 2026 earnings estimates.
The consensus oil outlook for 2026 was quite bearish while Wall Street's earnings forecasts were very optimistic.
This has not changed. According to LSEG 'data, the full-year earnings growth estimate for 2026 was nearly 16% as of?Friday. This is up from 14% a year ago and 12% a year before.
These 'rosy forecasts' assume that oil prices will average $60 per barrel this year, but those expectations have disappeared with the U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28, as well as the subsequent disruption of supply.
The oil market has seen wild volatility. Crude oil recorded its largest weekly increase on record last weekend, and continued to rise to almost $100 a barrel in this week's trading before falling on hopes of a quick end to the war.
The damage has been done. The global energy system, which was finely tuned, has been thrown off balance. Infrastructure has also been damaged and the anticipated supply glut has disappeared.
The average oil price this year is likely to be much higher than what businesses budgeted for at the beginning of the year. The companies will absorb a portion of the increase and consumers will feel it. In either case, corporate profits will be squeezed.
RUPTURE THE FORECASTS
In a December poll, the average consensus forecast for Brent crude in 2026 was $61.27 a barrel, with the oversupply expected offset any possible disruption of supply from the brewing U.S.Iran tensions. This would have been a 7% drop from the average price of $68.20 in 2025.
Since then, these forecasts have been thrown out.
Analysts at HSBC raised their forecasts for Brent crude to $80 per barrel in 2026 from $65 per barrel and U.S. West Texas intermediate crude to $76 per barrel from $61 per barrel on Tuesday. This represents an increase of 23% for Brent and 25% for U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration also raised its forecast for 2026 Brent crude to $79, up from $58 a month ago. This is a 36% rise.
Energy price increases will have a significant impact on the economy. Fuel, fertilizer and petrochemicals will be more costly. This impact will also be felt by industries such as manufacturing, metals and retail.
Joe Brusuelas is the chief economist of RSM US LLP. He says that as prices increase, consumers are affected and corporate earnings are eroded.
It's a GAS!
Goldman Sachs equity strategists believe that the impact of "modestly higher" oil prices on S&P500 earnings will be relatively muted. However, an extended period of disruption in supply or uncertainty is much more dangerous to economic activity. They say that for every percentage point of decline in the real U.S. growth rate, S&P 500 earnings could drop by 3-4%.
According to other estimates, a 30% increase in oil prices can knock 4% off the earnings of S&P 500, with the most severe impact felt in transportation, consumer discretionary, and industrial sectors.
Around 70% of the U.S. Economic activity in the United States is dominated by consumer spending. Energy costs will rise sharply, causing household budgets to be squeezed and other spending to suffer.
Alarm bells have already started to ring. According to data from the American Automobile Association, average gasoline prices in the United States are now above $3.50 per gallon. This is up 17% since the start of the war.
Of course, there's also a negative side. Energy sector profits are expected to grow by double digits if oil prices continue to rise. Energy only makes up 4-5% of the total S&P500 earnings, so it is unlikely that it will offset any margin losses elsewhere.
AI?ARMS RACES ARE EVEN EXPENSIVER NOW
There is an incredibly large dispersion between the 11 sectors in current earnings growth forecasts for 2026.
The energy sector EPS was minus 1,2% as of Friday. This is the bleakest forecast, and the only one that indicates a decline in profits.
On the other end of scale, the tech sector's 2026 estimated EPS growth was 35.9%. This is the highest estimate among all sectors, and it was up from 30.8% in January 1. Tech has contributed to the S&P 500 earnings growth for the past few years.
Higher energy prices will hurt the mega-cap companies leading the race for artificial intelligence. UBS analysts predict that capex expenditures by "hyperscalers", this year, will reach $770 billion. Construction and operation of data centers may now become more costly.
Investors are already worried about future returns. The prospect of a significantly more expensive energy source will only increase their concerns at a time where risks in many other sectors have also increased.
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(source: Reuters)