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Stocks celebrate Trump's trade deal after EU agreement

The euro strengthened on Monday, after a trade deal between the United States of America and the European Union lifted the mood and provided clarity during a crucial week that was highlighted by Federal Reserve policy meetings and Bank of Japan meetings.

A week after signing a deal with Japan to lower tariffs on automobile imports, the U.S. has struck a framework agreement with the European Union. The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on the majority of EU goods.

The deadline for finalising trade agreements is August 1. Talks between the U.S., China and Sweden are scheduled to take place on Monday amid expectations of a 90-day extension of the truce between these two top economies.

Prashant N. Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rate strategist at TD Securities, said: "A 15% tariff against European goods, the forced purchase of U.S. military and energy equipment, and zero tariff retaliation from Europe is not negotiation. That's art of deal." "A huge win for the U.S."

S&P 500 Futures increased by 0.4%, while Nasdaq Futures gained by 0.5%. The euro strengthened across the board against the dollar sterling and the yen. European futures soared by nearly 1%.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei fell after reaching a high of one year last week, while MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose 0.27%. This was just a fraction shy of its almost four-year-high it reached last week.

The baseline tariff of 15% is still considered by many to be too high in Europe, but it's better than the 30% rate that was threatened.

The agreement with the EU gives clarity to businesses and prevents a larger trade war between two allies who account for almost one-third of global trade.

"Put together, the evidence we have seen with Japan, the EU and the talks that will be held between the U.S.A. and China in Stockholm, this negates the risk of a long-term trade war," said Tony Sycamore.

The importance of the August tariff deadline is now significantly diminished.

Early trading saw the Australian dollar rise 0.12% to $0.65725, hovering near last week's peak of nearly eight months.

FED, BOJ AWAIT

Investors will be watching closely for the Fed's and BOJ's monetary policy meetings, as well as the U.S. monthly employment report, and the earnings reports of megacap companies Apple and Microsoft.

Investors will need to pay attention to the comments of the officials to determine the future interest rate path. The BOJ can now raise rates this year because of the trade agreement with Japan.

The Fed will likely be cautious about any further rate cuts, as officials are awaiting more data before lowering rates. They want to know if tariffs worsen inflation.

The tensions between Trump and Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, have increased as a result of Trump's repeated criticisms. Two Trump-appointed Fed Board members have given reasons to support a rate reduction this month.

ING economists predict that December will be a likely starting point for rates cuts. However, it could be a cut of 50 basis points if evidence about weaker GDP growth and jobs becomes more evident than we expect.

In a note, they stated that "this would be similar to the Federal Reserve’s actions in 2024 where it waited to commit to a low interest rate environment until it felt completely comfortable." (Reporting and editing by Sam Holmes; Ankur Banerjee in Singapore, Gregor Stuart Hunter)

(source: Reuters)