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Gold futures record highs, global stocks rise

The global equities market rose on Friday, as investors held on to the belief that U.S. rates could fall even further this year. European shares posted their largest weekly gain in twelve weeks due to the strength of banking stocks.

U.S. Gold Futures reached a record-high due to uncertainty about whether U.S. import duties would be applied to the most common sizes of gold bars. Investors waited for any signs of a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine after hearing that the United States was working with Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine. After Adriana Kugler abruptly left the U.S. Central Bank, President Donald Trump moved on Thursday to reshape it. He nominated Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran as a temporary board member.

Miran shares the same views as Trump who has criticized Powell for cutting rates "too late", despite the fact that growth is still holding and inflation is increasing.

Ray Attrill of National Australia Bank, Sydney's head of FX Strategy said: "It locks-in a vote in favor of rate cuts for all meetings from now until the end of the month."

He added that "markets are already traveling with a very high expectation of a rate reduction." There is a question over whether he will be able to ratify the agreement in time for September's meeting.

Bloomberg News reported on the fact that Fed Governor Christopher Waller is emerging as one of the leading candidates for Fed Chair.

The MSCI index of global stocks rose by 0.52%. Wall Street saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise 0.47% to 42,175.61, S&P 500 gain 0.78% at 6,389.45, and Nasdaq Composite climb 0.98% to 21450.02.

The pan-European STOXX 600 Index rose by 0.2%, finishing the week with a gain of over 2%. This was due to largely positive corporate results as well as firming bets on more Fed rate reductions. Prices were lifted from their five-week-lows last week. The stock market also saw an increase in shares due to the optimism that U.S. tariffs, which went into effect on Thursday, would be subject to negotiations. The SMI index in Zurich rose as traders shrugged off the 39% U.S. tax on Swiss imports.

The shock is real. Now the question is, how and when will it impact the economy? Samy Chaar, Lombard Odier's economist, said that up until now the impact has been less than expected.

Tariffs are higher than what many had expected in April.

As a result, the relief over lower than expected duties could be short-lived. Chaar noted that the European Union has a 15% duty instead of the 50% Trump had threatened.

"That is the vulnerability of the market... The focus is on the positive news, which is that you are not going to get the 50% but only 15%. The problem is that 15% represents a huge shock, and at some point it will show up in the data," said he.

U.S. Treasury rates rose on Friday. The yield on the benchmark 10 year note was poised to gain for the first time in three weeks following a series weak auctions. U.S. Customs and Border Protection published a ruling Friday on its website, which was interpreted by the gold industry as meaning that U.S. import duties could be applied to the largest gold bar sizes in the U.S.

The December U.S. Gold Futures settled at $3,491.30 an ounce, up 1.1% from the previous record of $3,534.10 reported by the Financial Times.

Spot gold slipped 0.08% to $3.394.24 per ounce.

Brent oil futures closed up 0.24% to $66.59 a barrel, while U.S. crude remained unchanged at $63.88 a barrel.

The expectation of a possible truce between Russia & Ukraine weighed down on the oil price earlier in U.S. trading. The economic outlook was also impacted by tariffs, and both benchmarks ended the week with losses.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. notes increased 3.9 basis points, to 4.283%.

The Japanese yen fell by 0.44% in relation to the dollar.

The dollar index (which measures the greenback in relation to a basket including the yen, the euro and other currencies) rose by 0.31%. However, the euro fell by 0.23%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan closed at a loss of 0.63% while Japan's Nikkei gained 1.85%.

(source: Reuters)