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Dollar suffers as stocks take a break and the Fed's rate cuts continue.

Investors paused the global stock rally on Thursday as they awaited the release of data from the U.S. Producer Prices later that day, which may reveal how tariffs impact inflation trends.

MSCI's global stock index flattened, after reaching all-time highs for the previous two sessions. An equivalent measure of Asian stocks outside Japan was near its highest level since September 2021.

Futures markets indicated that Wall Street stocks would have a quiet start after leading global shares to record highs all week. They also hit records on both Tuesday and Wednesday.

The global rally is fueled by the strong U.S. technology earnings and the speculation that Federal Reserve rate reductions will protect businesses and consumers from White House tariffs.

CME's FedWatch shows that traders now consider a September rate cut to be almost certain. The U.S. Administration continues to press the Fed to ease up more quickly. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Wednesday that Fed funds rates, which have been in the range of 4.25-4.5% since last December, could be reduced by up to 175 basis points.

Investors said that the monthly U.S. job data was surprisingly low on August 1. However, a U.S. Producer Prices report due out later on Thursday may shift the focus of the market to the risk of tariffs driving inflation up too high for Fed rate cuts.

A Bank of America survey conducted this week found that 70% of global investors believe U.S. Stagflation will become the dominant narrative in the market within three months.

"Inflation has started to show up." It's still not huge, but it could continue to grow in the coming months.

Investors on the U.S. Treasury market are becoming more concerned about the impact of higher inflation for longer periods. This could be a threat to the value of fixed-interest coupons in bonds with a longer maturity date.

The yield on two-year Treasury bonds, which tracks monetary policy bets and is a good indicator of the market, was 3.67% Thursday. This is down from 3.95% around the start of August.

The yield differential between the 30-year Treasuries and the 2-year notes has risen to 112bps, up from 95bps in August.

SOGGY DOLLAR

The U.S. Dollar struggled to recover from a two week low against a basket major currencies, while the Japanese yen saw a broad-based gain and reached its highest level in three weeks of 146.38 per US dollar.

Bessent had previously said that the Bank of Japan was behind in addressing inflation risks. The BOJ's underlying inflation rate, which is based on wages and domestic demand, is below the target. It also wants to know more about how U.S. Tariffs will affect exporters.

The euro was trading at $1.16722, a slight decline from the two-week high of the previous day, while European government bonds largely tracked movements in Treasuries. Germany's 10-year yield fell 2 basis points to 2.66%.

Eyes on Ukraine

The commodities markets were relatively quiet ahead of the summit between U.S. president Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, his Russian counterpart.

Trump threatened on Wednesday "severe consequence" if Putin refused to agree to peace in Ukraine. He also floated the concept of a second meeting that would include Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Brent crude, a global oil benchmark, traded around $65.86 per barrel on Thursday. This is just a couple of months off its two-month low, and it was down from nearly $70 at the beginning of August.

The spot gold price, which tends to rise when investors are focused on geopolitical risk, dropped about 0.5% to $ 3,3925 per troy-ounce.

Goldman Sachs analysts stated in a client note that if there is no progress on a ceasefire, the White House could reimpose sanctions against Russian oil. However, this would only lead to a "limited" risk of disruptions to supply.

J.P. Morgan analysts said that a peace agreement could boost the euro against dollar, but cautioned that the bar to achieve a ceasefire is high. Reporting by Naomi Rovnick and Jaspreet Klra, both in London; editing by Muralikumar Aantharaman and Kim Coghill.

(source: Reuters)