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Nikkei surges as Trump announces Japan Trade Deal

The Japanese stock market reached a record high of one year on Wednesday, as the country signed a deal with the United States to lower tariffs on autos. This also revived hopes for an EU-US trade agreement that would boost European stock futures.

Donald Trump said late Tuesday that a deal reached with Tokyo would see Japan pay a 15% lower tariff on all shipments to the U.S. The agreement came after the U.S. reached an agreement with the Philippines, where the U.S. will collect a tariff of 19% on imports.

Trump said that representatives of the European Union would be in Washington for trade talks on Wednesday. This sparked hopes for a trade deal with Europe as markets worried about wider EU countermeasures in the face of receding hopes for a Washington deal.

Futures on the EuroStoxx 50 index rose by 1% while Wall Street futures gained about 0.1%.

Charu Chanana is the chief investment strategist for Saxo. She said that expectations for a breakthrough in U.S.-Japan negotiations were low. Trump's announcement was a mild surprise, providing relief to Japanese stocks on a near-term basis.

The deal is a strategic one, as it allows Japan to avoid immediate tariff increases, while Trump's focus shifts elsewhere.

Nikkei gained over 3% in Japan as automakers' shares surged after news that the agreement would lower auto tariffs to 15% from proposed 25%. Mazda Motor rose 17%, while Toyota Motor increased 13.6%.

South Korean automakers have also increased their production as the Japan agreement has fueled optimism about possible progress in the tariff negotiations between South Korea & the United States.

The yields on 10-year JGBs increased by a massive 8.5 basis points to 1.585%. However, the reaction of the yen, which was trading at 146.99 dollars per yen, was less pronounced.

Investors reacted calmly to a report in the media that Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru ishiba was stepping down at the end of August. Ishiba is facing increasing opposition within his own party over his pledge to remain in power, despite Sunday's loss of the ruling coalition in upper house elections.

Chanana, from Saxo, said Ishiba’s departure removed a source for political fragility. It also sets the stage to a leadership that is more aligned towards pro-market policies as well as closer U.S. relations.

His exit also clears the way for Japan to continue its accommodative monetary and fiscal stance."

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that in another positive development U.S. officials and Chinese officials would meet next week in Stockholm to discuss an extension of the August 12 deadline to negotiate a trade agreement.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.7%. MSCI's broadest Asia-Pacific share index outside Japan rose 0.8%.

Wall Street ended the night mixed after investors analyzed a series of earnings reports that showed signs that Trump's Trade War is affecting corporate profit margins. General Motors fell 8.1% after it reported that tariffs had taken a $1 billion toll on its quarterly results.

Investors now await the results of Tesla and Google parent Alphabet, the Magnificent Seven stocks that drove much of the recent market rally fuelled with AI optimism.

The foreign exchange market was relatively quiet, with dollar yields and overnight dollar losses holding steady. The dollar index remained flat at 97.45 after slipping 0.4% overnight, its third consecutive day of declines.

The euro dropped 0.1% to $1.1739, after rising 0.5% overnight.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Yields increased by 2 basis points, to 4.3559% after falling 3 bps overnight. Trump continued to criticize Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, for not reducing interest rates. Bessent, however, said that Powell did not need to resign immediately.

Bessent said that the Fed's independence in monetary policy was threatened by the "mandate creep" it has taken into other areas. He called on the U.S. Central Bank to review these operations.

The price of oil rose a bit. U.S. crude oil rose by 0.4%, to $65.60 a barrel. Brent, on the other hand, was up 0.4%, at $68.88 a barrel.

The spot gold price remained at $3.429 per ounce.

(source: Reuters)